Jack Ginnivan (Hawthorn) Over 14.5 Disposals (-256)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Ginnivan's home numbers make this line look soft. Over his last five home games he's averaging 18.4 disposals — a full 3.9 above the 14.5 mark — built on a solid blend of 12.2 kicks and 6.2 handballs per game, with 356 metres gained suggesting he's genuinely influencing play rather than just accumulating cheap touches. That home hit rate of 16 from 20 (80%) over the past 20 games is the kind of consistency that gives the model real confidence, and the model projects 17.7 disposals here, generating a 1.2% edge against the implied probability of 71.9% at $1.39.
The one flag worth noting is his L5 record specifically against Brisbane — averaging just 13 disposals in those matchups — which is why this isn't a slam dunk. But at MCG in front of a home crowd, his elevated home-ground output has been reliable enough to back the over with genuine conviction.