Jack Ginnivan (Hawthorn) Over 0.5 Goals (-139)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Ginnivan's home-ground numbers make this a compelling play. At the MCG, he's averaging 1.0 goal per game across his last five home appearances, generating 3.0 shots at goal and 1.2 marks inside 50 — the kind of forward presence that consistently gets him across the line. That 15-from-20 hit rate in home games is the standout figure here, translating to a 75% strike rate against a market implied probability of just 58.1%. The model projects 1.1 goals with a 16.2% edge, which is meaningful value at $1.72.
The Collingwood matchup also flatters him — he's averaging 1.6 goals across his last five games against the Magpies overall, and 1.0 in the home leg specifically. His goal accuracy sits at 31.3% at home versus 25.0% overall, suggesting the familiar surroundings genuinely lift his conversion. This is a well-supported edge, not a coin flip.