Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jack Ginnivan is Under 20.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 55%, for a model edge of +16.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:03PM UTC
AFL

Jack Ginnivan

Hawthorn

+16.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 20.5 -120 (1.83)
+16.4% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
71.0%
Implied Probability
54.6%
Model Edge
+16.4%
Predicted Value
17.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.0%—54.6%1.41+16.4%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games4/10

See the full 20-game form curve

Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Jack Ginnivan (Hawthorn) Under 20.5 Disposals (-120)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Jack Ginnivan's performance at home, the numbers paint a clear picture. Over his last five home games, he's been averaging 23.2 disposals, but against specifically Port Adelaide, that number drops significantly to 14.5 disposals. With an average of 17.7 disposals predicted by the model and a 20.5 line set by the bookies, there's a strong case for taking the under. Ginnivan's recent form also shows a slight dip in overall disposals compared to his home games. Despite a decent hit rate in his overall stats, facing Port Adelaide seems to stifle his usual output. With his recent trend of falling below the set line against this opponent, betting on Ginnivan to go under 20.5 disposals could prove to be a smart move in this matchup at Marvel Stadium.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
22.2avg disposals L5
Away19.6vs Richmond14Season best31
O 20.550%
O 21.540%
O 22.540%
O 23.530%
O 24.520%
O 25.510%
Game log vs line (O 22.5)avg 17.5 · hi 31 · lo 9
1421311416181423159

Jack Ginnivan has gone over 22.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 22.2 disposals, best 31).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.6avg goals L5
Away1vs Richmond1.5Season best2
O 0.560%
O 1.530%
O 2.510%
Game log vs line (O 1.5)avg 1.4 · hi 2 · lo 0
1222020212

Jack Ginnivan has gone over 1.5 goals in 3 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.6 goals, best 2).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 20.5 Under -120 ✓ HIT
07 Mar 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 17.5 Over -114 ✗ MISS

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Jack Ginnivan (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jack Ginnivan is Under 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.4% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 18 April at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks