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The latest Bet Better model pick for Blake Hardwick is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 68%, edge +4.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 1, 9:46AM UTC
AFL

Blake Hardwick

Hawthorn

+4.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -208 (1.48) · $100→$148
+4.4% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Thu 3 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
19.6 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.0% · the book's price implies 67.6% · gap +4.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.0%—67.6%1.39+4.4%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Blake Hardwick Over 16.5 Disposals (-208)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

For Blake Hardwick to get over 16.5 disposals tonight, he needs to be active and involved in the game. Our numbers suggest he has a good chance to hit this mark based on his recent performance. Typically, players like him have been strong contributors, and he's shown he can handle the pressure, especially with Fremantle Dockers facing Hawthorn Hawks. One concern is that both teams have been known to struggle in certain defensive areas, which could lead to a tighter game. Still, Hardwick's ability to rack up disposals makes this bet appealing. With the right opportunities and if he plays his usual game, he should be able to reach the target.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Blake Hardwick averaged 15.0 disposals, 0.5 goals and 4.7 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

15.0
Disposals
0.5
Goals
4.7
Marks
2.5
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Blake Hardwick has cleared 13.5 disposals in 80% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o13.580%
o14.580%
o15.580%
o17.580%
o18.580%
o19.570%
o21.550%
o22.530%
o23.520%
o25.50%
o26.50%
o27.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Blake Hardwick is averaging 19.8 disposals per game over his last 5.

19.8
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Blake Hardwick recorded 16 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide16045
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs210120
24 Aug 24North Melbourne10014
18 Aug 24Richmond22032
11 Aug 24Carlton15092
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS19086
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows15034
20 Jul 24Collingwood19012
13 Jul 24Fremantle14042
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats19072
Quick answers:How many disposals does Blake Hardwick average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Blake Hardwick (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Blake Hardwick is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.4% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers on Thursday 3 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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