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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Blake Hardwick is Over 11.5 on Kicks.
On Kicks, our numbers say this bet wins about 62 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 62%, the price says 55%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 21, 3:08PM UTC
AFL

Blake Hardwick

Hawthorn

Value call

Blake Hardwick (Hawthorn) has one live pick today: Kicks Over 11.5 that pays $182 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Kicks Over 11.5 -122 (1.82) · $100→$182
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep, 7:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
62 in 100
Predicted
14.2 Kicks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 62.4% · before adjusting for past results 73.9% · the book's price implies 54.9% · gap +7.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Kicks73.9%62.4%54.9%1.60+19.0%

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AI Analysis

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Blake Hardwick Over 11.5 Kicks (-122)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Blake Hardwick has been in solid form lately, showing he can get involved in the game. For this matchup against the Brisbane Lions, betting on him to have over 11.5 kicks makes sense. Our numbers suggest he has a good chance to hit that mark, especially since he's been active on the field. One risk here is that both teams are quite close in skill, which could limit scoring opportunities. However, if Hardwick keeps up his current pace, he should be able to reach that number. It's always a bit of a gamble, but with the way he's been playing, this bet looks promising.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Blake Hardwick averaged 15.0 disposals, 0.5 goals and 4.7 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

15.0
Disposals
0.5
Goals
4.7
Marks
2.5
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Blake Hardwick recorded 16 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide16045
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs210120
24 Aug 24North Melbourne10014
18 Aug 24Richmond22032
11 Aug 24Carlton15092
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS19086
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows15034
20 Jul 24Collingwood19012
13 Jul 24Fremantle14042
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats19072
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Marks 3.5 Over -217 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Marks 2.5 Over -625 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Kicks Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Blake Hardwick (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Blake Hardwick is Over 11.5 on Kicks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.0% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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