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The latest Bet Better model pick for Blake Hardwick is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 82%, versus the book's implied 74%, for a model edge of +8.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 6:56PM UTC
AFL

Blake Hardwick

Hawthorn

+8.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -278 (1.36) · $100→$136
+8.2% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Hawthorn Hawks
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 11 Apr, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
81.7%
Implied Probability
73.5%
Model Edge
+8.2%
Predicted Value
18.0 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals81.7%73.5%1.22+8.2%

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AI Analysis

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Blake Hardwick (Hawthorn) Over 13.5 Disposals (-278)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's dive into why backing Blake Hardwick to go Over 13.5 disposals in the upcoming clash between Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs is a savvy move. Hardwick has been a consistent performer at home, averaging 15.8 disposals in his last 5 home games. Facing the Bulldogs, he's lifted his game even further, averaging 24 disposals in their recent encounters. With a current hit streak of 3 games and a solid overall hit rate, Hardwick is in fine form. His ability to find the footy, coupled with his high disposal efficiency of 87.4%, makes surpassing 13.5 disposals a highly probable outcome. Add in his knack for generating metres gained and intercepts, and we have a player poised to make a significant impact. So, expect Hardwick to be in the thick of the action, racking up possessions as Hawthorn looks to dominate at home.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
17avg disposals recent
Season best23
Disposals last 10avg 17 · hi 22 · lo 10
19141915191522102116

Blake Hardwick has a disposals high of 23 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0avg goals recent
Season best5
Goals last 10avg 0 · hi 0 · lo 0
0000000000

Blake Hardwick has a goals high of 5 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Blake Hardwick (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Blake Hardwick is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.2% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 11 April at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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