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The latest Bet Better model pick for Blake Hardwick is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 76%, versus the book's implied 64%, for a model edge of +11.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:28PM UTC
AFL

Blake Hardwick

Hawthorn

+11.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -179 (1.56)
+11.9% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Hawthorn Hawks
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 11 Apr, 9:35AM
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Model Probability
76.0%
Implied Probability
64.1%
Model Edge
+11.9%
Predicted Value
18.0 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals76.0%64.1%1.32+11.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Blake Hardwick (Hawthorn) Over 14.5 Disposals (-179)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to dependable midfield performers, Blake Hardwick of the Hawthorn Hawks stands out as a reliable cog in the engine room. In his last five home games, his average of 15.8 disposals showcases his knack for finding the footy. With an impressive disposal efficiency of 81.3%, Hardwick isn't just a quantity player; he's a quality distributor too. Facing off against the Western Bulldogs, a team he's historically performed well against with an average of 24 disposals in their last five encounters, the stage is set for Hardwick to shine. His recent form, including solid numbers in contested possessions, kicks, and intercepts, suggests he's in prime position to surpass the 14.5 disposal line set by the bookies. With a current hit streak and a model predicting 18 disposals, backing Hardwick to go over in this category feels like a smart play for this upcoming clash at Adelaide Oval.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
17.2avg disposals L5
Away16.4vs Richmond19Season best23
O 16.550%
O 17.540%
O 18.540%
O 19.530%
O 20.520%
O 21.520%
Game log vs line (O 17.5)avg 17 · hi 22 · lo 10
19141915191522102116

Blake Hardwick has gone over 17.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 17.2 disposals, best 23).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0avg goals recent
Season best5
Goals last 10avg 0 · hi 0 · lo 0
0000000000

Blake Hardwick has a goals high of 5 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 14.5 Over -179 ✗ MISS
11 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 13.5 Over -278 ✗ MISS
11 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 12.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
11 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals Pending
06 Apr 26 Geelong Cats @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals Pending
06 Apr 26 Geelong Cats @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Blake Hardwick (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Blake Hardwick is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.9% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 11 April at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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