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AFL

Blake Hardwick

Hawthorn

Value call

Blake Hardwick (Hawthorn) has one live pick today: over 14.5 disposals that pays $158 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
70 in 100
Predicted
19.6 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 69.6% · before adjusting for past results 83.1% · the book's price implies 63.3% · gap +6.3%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep, 5:15 PM AEST
Blake Hardwick
over 14.5 disposals
Disposals Over 14.5 -172 (1.58) · $100→$158
Value call
HIGHWins about 70 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$15.80 Odds-172
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Blake Hardwick is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 70 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 70%, the price says 63%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 12, 11:57PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals83.1%69.6%63.3%1.44+19.9%

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AI Analysis

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Blake Hardwick Over 14.5 Disposals (-172)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Blake Hardwick has been in solid form lately, and the Brisbane Lions are really strong right now, winning 9 of their last 10 games. They've been getting ahead by an average of over 31 points each match, which shows they know how to control the game. With Hardwick's role in the team, betting on him to get over 14.5 disposals seems like a good choice. One thing to keep in mind is that the competition can be tight, especially with Hawthorn at home. Still, given Hardwick's ability to rack up disposals, he has a good chance to hit that mark. The numbers back this up, making it a strong pick for today's game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Blake Hardwick averaged 15.0 disposals, 0.5 goals and 4.7 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

15.0
Disposals
0.5
Goals
4.7
Marks
2.5
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Blake Hardwick recorded 16 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide16045
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs210120
24 Aug 24North Melbourne10014
18 Aug 24Richmond22032
11 Aug 24Carlton15092
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS19086
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows15034
20 Jul 24Collingwood19012
13 Jul 24Fremantle14042
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats19072
Quick answers:How many disposals does Blake Hardwick average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Marks 3.5 Over -217 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Kicks — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Kicks — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Blake Hardwick (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Blake Hardwick is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.9% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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