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Model picks & player props
Hawthorn Hawks
VS
Carlton Blues

Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 5:45AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sat 11 Jul 2026, 9:35AM
5
Game markets graded
14
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Carlton Blues Moneyline +159

The model graded 19 markets for Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $259 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 11 Jul 2026, 9:35AM at MCG.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win58.1%
The price says38.6%
Best price+159
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Carlton Blues Lean58% chance +159
Total Points High61% chance
Spread Lean55% chance
Spread Lean54% chance
Total Points Lean53% chance
Goals × 7 props Highup to 96%
Disposals × 7 props Highup to 85%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Hawthorn Hawks and Carlton Blues last met on Sat 11 Jul 2026. What follows is the model's graded record from that game; a new preview appears here the moment the next one is priced. Today's board: every AFL game priced right now.

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This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Under 167.5 · $100 returned $189

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Carlton Blues
+ 4 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Carlton BluesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlton BluesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlton BluesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Hawks

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Blues

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Brodie Kemp Carlton Goals
Cam Mackenzie Hawthorn Disposals
Will Hayward Carlton Goals
Jack Gunston Hawthorn Goals
Mitch McGovern Carlton Goals

+ 14 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues — what the model found

Our model graded 19 betting markets for Hawthorn Hawks at Carlton Blues — 5 on the game itself and 14 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

5
Game markets graded
14
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 19 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 18 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues — model preview

Latest AFL betting preview: Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Jack Gunston. Keywords: AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks stats and odds.

Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) Over 2.5 Goals (-189)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a seasoned forward like Jack Gunston to snag over 2.5 goals in the upcoming clash against Carlton, the numbers paint a compelling picture. Gunston has been in scintillating form, averaging an impressive 4 goals per game over his last 5 away fixtures. His accuracy in front of goal sits at a solid 60.2%, indicating he's making his shots count. With an average of 4.4 marks inside 50 and 7.2 score involvements per game, Gunston is a constant threat in the attacking half. Against Carlton specifically, he's been even more lethal, averaging 2.2 goals per game in their last 5 encounters. With a current away hit streak and a stellar overall hit rate, Gunston is primed to light up the scoreboard once again at the MCG. Bet confidently on Gunston to deliver the goods and split the middle multiple times this weekend.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
11 Jul 26 Total Points Under 173.5 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Total Points Under 167.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Hawks vs Blues, or as Blues vs Hawks. The most recent game between them was Saturday 11 July 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 5 game picks and 14 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

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