Dylan Moore (Hawthorn) Over 13.5 Disposals (-263)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Dylan Moore is in the kind of form that makes a 13.5 disposal line look almost generous. His L5 home average sits at 16.4 disposals — nearly three clear of the line — and he's gone over 13.5 in all five of his last five home games, a perfect hit rate that's no fluke given the underlying numbers. Against Brisbane specifically, he averages 18 disposals at home and 19 overall across his last five meetings, which is the most compelling contextual figure here.
The model projects 17 disposals, generating a 3.0% edge against the implied 72.5% probability baked into the $1.38 price. His disposal efficiency at home runs at 77.4% — well above his overall 69.3% — suggesting he handles the ball cleanly and keeps accumulating rather than turning it over. With an active four-game overall streak and a five-game home streak, Moore shapes as a genuine edge play in a final at the MCG.