Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
AFL

Bailey Macdonald

Hawthorn

Value call

Bailey Macdonald (Hawthorn) has one live pick today: over 10.5 disposals that pays $187 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
62 in 100
Predicted
13.1 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 62.1% · before adjusting for past results 72.4% · the book's price implies 53.5% · gap +8.6%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep, 5:15 PM AEST
Bailey Macdonald
over 10.5 disposals
Disposals Over 10.5 -115 (1.87) · $100→$187
Value call
HIGHWins about 62 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.70 Odds-115
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Bailey Macdonald is Over 10.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 62 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 62%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:02PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 11°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.4%62.1%53.5%1.61+18.9%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Bailey Macdonald Over 10.5 Disposals (-115)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Bailey Macdonald has shown he can be a solid player for the Brisbane Lions, especially since his team has been on fire, winning 9 of their last 10 games. They have been dominating their matches, often leading by over 30 points, which means they are likely to have plenty of chances to move the ball around. Macdonald also benefits from his teammates creating space and opportunities for him to get involved. However, one risk is that Hawthorn can be tough to break down at times, and they might limit the number of disposals he gets. Still, with Brisbane's recent scoring and ball movement, betting on Macdonald to have over 10.5 disposals seems a smart move. The Lions' strong offensive game should give him enough opportunities to meet this target.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Bailey Macdonald - AFL Disposals market.

MarksSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Bailey Macdonald - AFL Marks market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Marks 1.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Marks — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Bailey Macdonald (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bailey Macdonald is Over 10.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.9% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.