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The latest Bet Better model pick for Bailey Macdonald is Over 10.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 65%, edge +7.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 1, 7:29AM UTC
AFL

Bailey Macdonald

Hawthorn

+7.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 10.5 -189 (1.53) · $100→$153
+7.1% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Thu 3 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 11°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
13.1 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.5% · the book's price implies 65.4% · gap +7.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.5%—65.4%1.38+7.1%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Bailey Macdonald Over 10.5 Disposals (-189)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Bailey Macdonald has a solid chance to get over 10.5 disposals in this game at Optus Stadium. Our numbers show he's been involved in more one-on-one contests than usual, which means he should have plenty of opportunities to get the ball. Plus, the stats indicate that the defense has been a bit weaker lately, which could help him find space to collect more disposals. However, the matchup is tight, and both teams are fairly even in skill. If Hawthorn's defense steps up, it could make it harder for Macdonald to reach that number. But overall, given the good numbers and his recent form, this bet feels promising.

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Pick History & Track Record

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Bailey Macdonald has cleared 9.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.590%
o10.580%
o11.580%
o12.550%
o13.530%
o14.530%
o15.520%
o16.520%
o17.520%
o18.50%
o19.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Bailey Macdonald is averaging 14.0 disposals per game over his last 5.

14.0
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Bailey Macdonald (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bailey Macdonald is Over 10.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.1% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers on Thursday 3 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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