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The latest Bet Better model pick for Harry Morrison is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 78%, versus the book's implied 76%, for a model edge of +1.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:03PM UTC
AFL

Harry Morrison

Hawthorn

+1.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -323 (1.31)
+1.4% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks
UTAS Stadium, Launceston, TAS · Outdoor
Sat 28 Jun, 6:15AM
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Model Probability
77.8%
Implied Probability
76.3%
Model Edge
+1.4%
Predicted Value
18.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals77.8%—76.3%1.29+1.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

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AI Analysis

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Harry Morrison (Hawthorn) Over 14.5 Disposals (-323)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Harry Morrison is poised to shine with a predicted 18.3 disposals, a 1.4% edge, and a solid historical performance. In his last five home games, he has averaged 19.6 disposals, exceeding the 14.5 line comfortably. Against North Melbourne, Morrison's average rises to 20.7 disposals. With consistent contested possessions (6.2), kicks (9.6), and efficient disposal rates (72.4%), he's a reliable choice. His recent form, including 5 out of 6 games hitting this mark at home, further supports this bet. Expect Morrison to maintain his form and surpass the 14.5 disposals threshold when Hawthorn faces North Melbourne at UTAS Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 17.5
17.8avg disposals L5
Away17.8vs Richmond16Season best26
O 15.590%
O 16.580%
O 17.560%
O 18.550%
O 19.540%
O 20.520%
Game log vs line (O 17.5)avg 15 · hi 23 · lo 7
141116772014162223

Harry Morrison has gone over 17.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 17.8 disposals, best 26).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Harry Morrison (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Harry Morrison is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.4% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 28 June at UTAS Stadium, Launceston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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