Harry Morrison (Hawthorn) Over 14.5 Disposals (-189)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Harry Morrison is in the form of his life at the MCG, and the 14.5 disposal line looks well short of what he's capable of delivering. His L5 home games average sits at 18 disposals — 3.5 clear of the line — and he's gone over 14.5 in six straight home appearances, a 6/6 hit rate that's hard to ignore. Against Brisbane specifically, he averages 21 disposals at home and 19.3 across all venues, suggesting this opponent brings out his best work. The model projects 17.5 disposals, generating a 6.5% edge over the implied 65.4% probability baked into the $1.53 price. Morrison's home efficiency numbers reinforce the case: 10.6 kicks, 7.4 handballs, 235.6 metres gained and an 81.7% disposal efficiency across his last five at home paint the picture of a player who moves the ball cleanly and accumulates. The line is simply too low.