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Model picks & player props
Collingwood Magpies
VS
Hawthorn Hawks

Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:20AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Thu 7 Aug 2025, 9:30AM
6
Game Picks
13
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Hawthorn Hawks (Head to Head)
For Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks (AFL), model win probability 56.2%, fair odds 1.78, book price +132, model edge +13.1%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 7 Aug 2025, 9:30AM at MCG.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Head to Head
Hawthorn Hawks
+132
+ 5 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Hawthorn HawksHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Collingwood MagpiesHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Collingwood MagpiesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Magpies

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Hawks

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Jai Newcombe Hawthorn Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Calsher Dear Hawthorn Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jamie Elliott Collingwood Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Mabior Chol Hawthorn Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Tim Membrey Collingwood Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Collingwood Magpies @ Hawthorn Hawks — model preview

<p>Latest AFL betting preview: Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Dylan Moore. Keywords: AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies stats and odds.</p>

Dylan Moore (Hawthorn) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-159)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Dylan Moore is a solid bet to score anytime in the upcoming Hawthorn vs. Collingwood clash. With a model predicting he will score 0.9 goals, a 10% edge, and playing at home, Moore's recent form supports this. In his last 5 home games, he has averaged 0.8 goals, showcasing a 50% goal accuracy and 1.6 shots at goal per game. Additionally, he has been involved in the score 6.2 times on average. Facing Collingwood, against whom he averages 0.7 goals in his last 5 matchups, Moore's ability to hit the scoreboard consistently makes him a favorable pick to snag a goal in this game.

Tim Membrey (Collingwood) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-370)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Tim Membrey is a strong bet to score anytime against Hawthorn due to his impressive recent form. With an average of 2 goals in his last 5 away games and a high 82% goal accuracy, Membrey consistently finds the big sticks. Additionally, his average of 2.4 shots at goal and 4.6 score involvements per game indicates his active presence in the forward line. Facing Hawthorn, against whom he averages 2.5 goals in their matchups, Membrey's goal-scoring potential is further supported. Given his recent performance metrics and historical success against this opponent, Membrey is likely to continue his goal-scoring streak, making the over 0.5 goals bet enticing.

Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) Over 1.5 Goals (-204)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jack Gunston is in stellar form, averaging 3 goals in his last 5 home games. Facing Collingwood, where he has historically performed well, averaging 0.7 goals against them, Gunston's 8% model edge for over 1.5 goals is compelling. With a strong home hit rate of 7 goals in the last 9 games and an overall hit streak of 3, Gunston's consistent scoring, combined with his recent form and matchup history, make him a reliable choice to snag 2 goals in this game. His proficiency in finding the big sticks, coupled with his high shot volume and involvement in scoring plays, further supports this bet.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
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Hit Rate

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 7 August 2025 at MCG. The model has generated 6 game picks and 13 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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