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Model picks & player props
Collingwood Magpies
VS
Hawthorn Hawks

Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 8:54AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 9:40AM
20
Game markets graded
7
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Collingwood Magpies Moneyline +225

The model graded 27 markets for Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $325 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 15 Aug 2026, 9:40AM at MCG.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win47.2%
The price says29.0%
Best price+225
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Collingwood Magpies Lean47% chance +225
Spread Lean57% chance
Spread Lean56% chance
Spread Q2 Lean58% chance
Spread Q2 Lean56% chance
Spread High62% chance
Spread Q2 Lean54% chance
Goals × 7 props Highup to 75%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Beau McCreery Over 0.5 · $100 returned $215

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Collingwood Magpies
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Collingwood MagpiesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Hawthorn HawksSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Hawthorn HawksSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Collingwood MagpiesSpread Q2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Collingwood MagpiesSpread Q2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Hawthorn HawksSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Hawthorn HawksSpread Q2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Magpies

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Hawks

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Beau McCreery Collingwood Goals
Jack Ginnivan Hawthorn Goals
Angus Anderson Collingwood Goals
Mabior Chol Hawthorn Goals
Tim Membrey Collingwood Goals

+ 7 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Collingwood Magpies @ Hawthorn Hawks — what the model found

Our model graded 27 betting markets for Collingwood Magpies at Hawthorn Hawks — 20 on the game itself and 7 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
7
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 27 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 26 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Collingwood Magpies @ Hawthorn Hawks — model preview

Hawthorn Hawks v Collingwood Magpies, 15 August 2026. Top of the list: Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies: Hawthorn Hawks -4.5 spreads_q2.

On Saturday 15 August 2026, Hawthorn Hawks play Collingwood Magpies in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies: Hawthorn Hawks -4.5 spreads_q2, priced at -120 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies: Hawthorn Hawks -4.5 spreads_q2 (-120)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy fans, let's dive into this enticing clash between the Hawthorn Hawks and the Collingwood Magpies at the iconic MCG. The Hawks have been soaring lately, especially at home. In their last five games at the fortress, they've been ruthless, averaging a margin of 15.4 points and 95 points scored per game. Their prolific attack, averaging 30.2 shots on goal and 62.8 inside 50s, has been a nightmare for opponents. On the flip side, the Magpies have struggled on the road, with an average points against of 88.4. Their defense might buckle under the Hawks' relentless pressure. With a -4.5 line in their favor, the Hawks look poised to dominate the Magpies and cover the spread comfortably. This bet on the Hawks feels like a safe snag at some juicy odds.

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
15 Aug 26 Spread Q2 Collingwood Magpies 4.5 ✓ HIT
15 Aug 26 Spread Q3 Hawthorn Hawks -5.5 ✓ HIT
15 Aug 26 Spread Q4 Collingwood Magpies 5.5 ✓ HIT
15 Aug 26 Spread Q2 Collingwood Magpies 5.5 ✓ HIT
15 Aug 26 Spread Q3 Hawthorn Hawks -4.5 ✓ HIT
15 Aug 26 Spread Q4 Collingwood Magpies 4.5 ✓ HIT
15 Aug 26 Team Total Points Q1 Under 23.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Magpies vs Hawks, or as Hawks vs Magpies. The most recent game between them was Saturday 15 August 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 20 game picks and 7 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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