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The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Ward is Over 2.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 64 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 64%, the price says 71%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 8:05PM UTC
AFL

Josh Ward

Hawthorn

Value call

Josh Ward (Hawthorn) has one live pick today: Marks Over 2.5 that pays $140 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 2.5 -250 (1.40) · $100→$140
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep, 7:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
64 in 100
Predicted
3.9 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 63.8% · before adjusting for past results 75.5% · the book's price implies 71.4% · gap -7.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks75.5%63.8%71.4%1.57+4.1%

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AI Analysis

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Josh Ward Over 2.5 Marks (-250)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds for Josh Ward to get over 2.5 marks in the game against the Brisbane Lions look pretty solid at -250. Our numbers think he's a strong favorite to hit that mark, especially since he typically grabs more than twice the usual amount of marks in games like this. His stats show he's really good at catching the ball, which makes this bet feel promising. A bit of caution, though: sometimes the competition can be really close, and the Lions are known for their strong defense. Still, with Ward's ability to bring in so many marks, this bet has a good chance of coming through.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 10 of last 10(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Josh Ward averaged 14.9 disposals, 0.1 goals and 4.1 marks per game across 12 games in 2024.

14.9
Disposals
0.1
Goals
4.1
Marks
2.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Josh Ward recorded 14 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide14041
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs22039
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS11021
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows19042
20 Jul 24Collingwood18042
13 Jul 24Fremantle10031
5 May 24Western Bulldogs9141
13 Apr 24Gold Coast SUNS7021
7 Apr 24Collingwood17022
1 Apr 24Geelong Cats19074
Quick answers:How many disposals does Josh Ward average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Marks 2.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 18.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 17.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Fantasy — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Fantasy — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Clearances — — — Pending

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About This Player

Josh Ward (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Ward is Over 2.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.1% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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