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The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Ward is Over 18.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 71%, for a model edge of +1.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:03PM UTC
AFL

Josh Ward

Hawthorn

+1.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 18.5 -250 (1.40)
+1.2% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
72.6%
Implied Probability
71.4%
Model Edge
+1.2%
Predicted Value
21.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.6%—71.4%1.38+1.2%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Josh Ward (Hawthorn) Over 18.5 Disposals (-250)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Josh Ward hitting the Over 18.5 disposals mark in the upcoming clash between the Hawthorn Hawks and Port Adelaide Power, the numbers paint a clear picture. Ward has been a consistent force in his last five home games, averaging 22.6 disposals, showcasing his ability to find the ball effectively. His recent form against this opponent also bodes well, with an average of 26 disposals in his last five matchups. Ward's knack for contested possessions (7.2 avg) and efficient ball use (69.0% avg) underline his capability to impact games. With his recent hit streak at home and facing a familiar foe, Ward's track record positions him as a reliable pick to surpass the 18.5 disposals line. Betting on Ward to deliver here seems like a smart move given his current form and historical performance against Port Adelaide.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 4(75%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 23.5
24avg disposals L5
Away23.4vs Richmond18.7Season best28
O 21.570%
O 22.560%
O 23.550%
O 24.530%
O 25.520%
O 26.520%
Game log vs line (O 23.5)avg 14.6 · hi 22 · lo 7
191779101819112214

Josh Ward has gone over 23.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 24 disposals, best 28).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 18.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 17.5 Over -357 ✗ MISS
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 15.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
07 Mar 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Josh Ward (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Ward is Over 18.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.2% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 18 April at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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