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AFL

Josh Ward

Hawthorn

Value call

Josh Ward (Hawthorn) has one live pick today: over 20.5 disposals that pays $191 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
59 in 100
Predicted
23.8 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 59.0% · before adjusting for past results 71.9% · the book's price implies 52.4% · gap +6.7%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep, 5:15 PM AEST
Josh Ward
over 20.5 disposals
Disposals Over 20.5 -110 (1.91) · $100→$191
Value call
LEANWins about 59 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$19.10 Odds-110
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Ward is Over 20.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 59 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 59%, the price says 52%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 12, 11:58PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.9%59.0%52.4%2.02+19.6%

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AI Analysis

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Josh Ward Over 20.5 Disposals (-110)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds for Josh Ward to get over 20.5 disposals look solid. Hawthorn has been getting the ball inside 50 a lot more than their opponents lately, which means Ward should have plenty of opportunities to gather possessions. Plus, their rucks have been winning a good amount of hit-outs, giving him an extra advantage to get involved in play. However, keep in mind that Brisbane Lions are a tough team, having won 9 of their last 10 games. They also score heavily before half-time, which could limit the number of chances Ward gets if they take control early. Still, considering how our numbers rate his chances, this bet has a good shot at hitting.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Josh Ward averaged 14.9 disposals, 0.1 goals and 4.1 marks per game across 12 games in 2024.

14.9
Disposals
0.1
Goals
4.1
Marks
2.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Josh Ward recorded 14 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide14041
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs22039
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS11021
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows19042
20 Jul 24Collingwood18042
13 Jul 24Fremantle10031
5 May 24Western Bulldogs9141
13 Apr 24Gold Coast SUNS7021
7 Apr 24Collingwood17022
1 Apr 24Geelong Cats19074
Quick answers:How many disposals does Josh Ward average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 20.5 Over -110 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 18.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 19.5 Over -152 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Fantasy — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Fantasy — — — Pending

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About This Player

Josh Ward (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Ward is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.6% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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