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AFL

Josh Ward

Hawthorn

+8.3% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Under 22.5 -115 (1.87)
+8.3% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
ENGIE Stadium, Sydney
Sat 7 Mar, 5:15AM
Model Probability
61.8%
Implied Probability
53.5%
Model Edge
+8.3%
Predicted Value
21.0 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Josh Ward (Hawthorn) Under 22.5 Disposals (-115)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Josh Ward hitting the Under 22.5 disposals mark against the Greater Western Sydney Giants, the numbers paint a clear picture. In his last five away games, Ward has averaged 17.8 disposals, falling below the set line. Against the upcoming opponent, his average sits at 17.5 disposals. Despite his overall season average of 19.2 disposals, recent trends show he's been hovering around this line. His disposal efficiency has been solid at 74.0%, but the contested possessions average of 7 and turnover rate of 2.8 per game suggest he may not hit the higher disposal numbers consistently. With an implied probability of 53.5% for this bet, the data indicates Ward is more likely to stay under the set line, making this a favorable wager for the savvy punter.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (50 picks) 92.0% (46/50)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
07 Mar 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 22.5 Under -115 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 25 Hawthorn Hawks @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 14.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 25 Hawthorn Hawks @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 14.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 25 Hawthorn Hawks @ Adelaide Crows Disposals Pending
12 Sep 25 Hawthorn Hawks @ Adelaide Crows Disposals Pending
12 Sep 25 Hawthorn Hawks @ Adelaide Crows Disposals Pending

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