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The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Ward is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 91 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 91%, implied 82%, edge +9.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 5:59AM UTC
AFL

Josh Ward

Hawthorn

+9.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -455 (1.22) · $100→$122
+9.2% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Thu 3 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
91 in 100
Predicted
24.3 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 91.1% · the book's price implies 82.0% · gap +9.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals91.1%—82.0%1.10+9.2%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Josh Ward Over 17.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers face a tough challenge against Hawthorn Hawks, and Josh Ward looks set to play a big role in the game. Our numbers suggest he's likely to rack up more than 17.5 disposals, as he has been consistently getting plenty of touches lately. His performance is rated as a strong favorite, which means there's a good chance he'll hit that mark. The biggest risk is that both teams have shown they can be close in their matchups, so it could go either way. Still, with Ward's recent form and the way he finds the ball, this bet feels solid. Keep an eye on how he plays, but I like the chances of him getting over 17.5 disposals here.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Josh Ward averaged 14.9 disposals, 0.1 goals and 4.1 marks per game across 12 games in 2024.

14.9
Disposals
0.1
Goals
4.1
Marks
2.3
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Josh Ward has cleared 14.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o14.5100%
o15.5100%
o17.590%
o19.590%
o21.570%
o23.550%
o25.530%
o26.530%
o28.510%
o30.510%
o32.510%
o34.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Josh Ward is averaging 25.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

25.4
Disp · Overall
0.6
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Josh Ward recorded 14 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide14041
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs22039
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS11021
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows19042
20 Jul 24Collingwood18042
13 Jul 24Fremantle10031
5 May 24Western Bulldogs9141
13 Apr 24Gold Coast SUNS7021
7 Apr 24Collingwood17022
1 Apr 24Geelong Cats19074
Quick answers:How many disposals does Josh Ward average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
07 Mar 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 22.5 Under -115 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Josh Ward (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Ward is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.2% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers on Thursday 3 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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