Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Ward is Over 18.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 71%, for a model edge of +1.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 8:23PM UTC
AFL

Josh Ward

Hawthorn

+1.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 18.5 -250 (1.40) · $100→$140
+1.2% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.6%
Implied Probability
71.4%
Model Edge
+1.2%
Predicted Value
21.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.6%—71.4%1.38+1.2%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Josh Ward (Hawthorn) Over 18.5 Disposals (-250)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Josh Ward hitting the Over 18.5 disposals mark in the upcoming clash between the Hawthorn Hawks and Port Adelaide Power, the numbers paint a clear picture. Ward has been a consistent force in his last five home games, averaging 22.6 disposals, showcasing his ability to find the ball effectively. His recent form against this opponent also bodes well, with an average of 26 disposals in his last five matchups. Ward's knack for contested possessions (7.2 avg) and efficient ball use (69.0% avg) underline his capability to impact games. With his recent hit streak at home and facing a familiar foe, Ward's track record positions him as a reliable pick to surpass the 18.5 disposals line. Betting on Ward to deliver here seems like a smart move given his current form and historical performance against Port Adelaide.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 4(75%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
14.6avg disposals recent
Season best28
Disposals last 10avg 14.6 · hi 22 · lo 7
191779101819112214

Josh Ward has a disposals high of 28 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 18.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 17.5 Over -357 ✗ MISS
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 15.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
07 Mar 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Josh Ward (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Ward is Over 18.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.2% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 18 April at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.