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Model picks & player props
Hawthorn Hawks
VS
Gold Coast Suns

Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:19AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
TIO Stadium, Darwin
Outdoor
Thu 15 May 2025, 9:30AM
6
Game Picks
13
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 187.5 (Total Points)
For Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns (AFL), model win probability 92.0%, fair odds 1.09, book price -114, model edge +38.8%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 15 May 2025, 9:30AM at TIO Stadium.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Points
Under
187.5
-114
+ 5 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Gold Coast SunsHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Hawks

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Suns

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Ben Long Gold Coast SUNS Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jack Gunston Hawthorn Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Connor Macdonald Hawthorn Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Mabior Chol Hawthorn Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Sam Flanders Gold Coast SUNS Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 15 May 2025 at TIO Stadium. The model has generated 6 game picks and 13 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

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