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Model picks & player props
Hawthorn Hawks
VS
Gold Coast Suns

Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 2:34PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
TIO Stadium, Darwin
Outdoor
Thu 15 May 2025, 9:30AM
6
Game markets graded
13
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Under 187.5 (Total Points)
The model graded 19 markets for Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $188 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 92.0%, fair odds 1.09, book price -114, model edge +38.8%. Tip-off Thu 15 May 2025, 9:30AM at TIO Stadium.

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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Points
Under
187.5
-114
+ 5 more markets
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🔒
🔒

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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Gold Coast SunsHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Hawks

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Suns

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Ben Long Gold Coast SUNS Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jack Gunston Hawthorn Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Connor Macdonald Hawthorn Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Mabior Chol Hawthorn Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Sam Flanders Gold Coast SUNS Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Hawthorn Hawks @ Gold Coast Suns — what the model found

Our model graded 19 betting markets for Hawthorn Hawks at Gold Coast Suns — 6 on the game itself and 13 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

6
Game markets graded
13
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 19 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 18 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns — recent results

Gold Coast Suns have won 1 of their last 5 games; Hawthorn Hawks have won 0 of their last 0.

Gold Coast Suns — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W79–77GWSAway
L105–114MELBHome
L97–110CARLAway
L68–77WBHome
L49–128ADELAway

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Hawks vs Suns, or as Suns vs Hawks. The most recent game between them was Thursday 15 May 2025 at TIO Stadium. The model has generated 6 game picks and 13 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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