Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Model picks & player props
Essendon Bombers
VS
Hawthorn Hawks

Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 22, 4:13AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sat 25 Jul 2026, 6:15AM
6
Game Picks
8
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Hawthorn Hawks -13.5 (Spread Q4)
For Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks (AFL), model win probability 71.3%, fair odds 1.40, book price -110, model edge +19.0%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 25 Jul 2026, 6:15AM at MCG.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread Q4
Hawthorn Hawks
-13.5
+ 5 more markets
Unlock with Pro
🔒

Unlock every graded pick for this game

See the full board for this matchup — every market, every line, every edge — plus every pick across the slate.

Bet Better Unlock all game picks
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Hawthorn HawksSpread Q4Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Hawthorn HawksSpread Q3Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Hawthorn HawksSpread Q2Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Points Q4Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Points Q2Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Unlock the full calibrated board

See the model's calibrated probability, fair odds and edge on every market in this matchup.

Bet Better Unlock calibrated edges
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Essendon Bombers on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Essendon Bombers
Exact move size 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Bombers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Hawks

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Jarman Impey Hawthorn Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Archie Roberts Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Angus Clarke Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jai Newcombe Hawthorn Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Mabior Chol Hawthorn Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

Unlock every player prop for this game

Get the player, the line, the pick and the edge on every graded prop in this matchup.

Bet Better Unlock player props
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Betting angles

6 markets live
Total pointsOver 170.5170.5 -114+0.8% edge
54%over %
173.4proj. total pts
Model pickOver 170.5Hawthorn Hawks PF/G102.0Essendon Bombers PF/G55.6Combined PF/G157.6

Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks on Jul 25 - Total points: the model's pick is Over 170.5 at -114, a 54% over % (+0.8% edge). Over their last five games Hawthorn Hawks average 102.0 points and Essendon Bombers 55.6.

Total Q2Over 41.541.5 -115+1.7% edge
55%over %
43.3proj. quarter pts
Model pickOver 41.5Hawthorn Hawks PF/G102.0Essendon Bombers PF/G55.6Combined PF/G157.6

Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks on Jul 25 - Total Q2: the model's pick is Over 41.5 at -115, a 55% over % (+1.7% edge). Over their last five games Hawthorn Hawks average 102.0 points and Essendon Bombers 55.6.

Total Q4Over 41.541.5 -111+2.5% edge
55%over %
43.3proj. quarter pts
Model pickOver 41.5Hawthorn Hawks PF/G102.0Essendon Bombers PF/G55.6Combined PF/G157.6

Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks on Jul 25 - Total Q4: the model's pick is Over 41.5 at -111, a 55% over % (+2.5% edge). Over their last five games Hawthorn Hawks average 102.0 points and Essendon Bombers 55.6.

Line Q2Hawthorn Hawks -12.5-12.5 -122+14.4% edge
69%cover %
+25.0Hawthorn Hawks margin (L5)
Model pickHawthorn Hawks -12.5Hawthorn Hawks PF/G102.0Essendon Bombers PF/G55.6

Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks on Jul 25 - Line Q2: the model's pick is Hawthorn Hawks -12.5 at -122, a 69% cover % (+14.4% edge). Over their last five games Hawthorn Hawks average 102.0 points and Essendon Bombers 55.6.

Line Q3Hawthorn Hawks -13.5-13.5 -114+18.1% edge
71%cover %
+25.0Hawthorn Hawks margin (L5)
Model pickHawthorn Hawks -13.5Hawthorn Hawks PF/G102.0Essendon Bombers PF/G55.6

Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks on Jul 25 - Line Q3: the model's pick is Hawthorn Hawks -13.5 at -114, a 71% cover % (+18.1% edge). Over their last five games Hawthorn Hawks average 102.0 points and Essendon Bombers 55.6.

Line Q4Hawthorn Hawks -13.5-13.5 -110+19.0% edge
71%cover %
+25.0Hawthorn Hawks margin (L5)
Model pickHawthorn Hawks -13.5Hawthorn Hawks PF/G102.0Essendon Bombers PF/G55.6

Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks on Jul 25 - Line Q4: the model's pick is Hawthorn Hawks -13.5 at -110, a 71% cover % (+19.0% edge). Over their last five games Hawthorn Hawks average 102.0 points and Essendon Bombers 55.6.

Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks — model preview

<p>Winning bets for Hawthorn Hawks vs Essendon Bombers? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Archie Roberts. Explore AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Hawthorn Hawks vs Essendon Bombers stats and odds.</p>

Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 23.5 Disposals (-400)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Archie Roberts' recent form, it's clear he's been a standout performer for the Essendon Bombers. In his last five away games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging a whopping 28.2 disposals per game, well above the set line of 23.5. Roberts has been a key playmaker, racking up 19.6 kicks and 8.6 handballs on average, showcasing his ability to find space and create scoring opportunities. Moreover, his disposal efficiency has been impressive at 77.9%, ensuring he makes the most of his possessions. Against their upcoming opponents, the Hawthorn Hawks, Roberts has historically stepped up, averaging 19 disposals per game. With a model prediction of 29.7 disposals and a solid track record, backing Roberts to surpass 23.5 disposals in this game at the hallowed MCG seems like a smart bet to snag some solid returns.

Angus Clarke (Essendon) Over 12.5 Disposals (-238)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Angus Clarke hitting the Over 12.5 disposals mark against the Hawks, the numbers tell a compelling story. Over his last five away games, Clarke has been a consistent contributor, averaging 13 disposals with a solid 75.9% disposal efficiency. His ability to find space and impact the game is evident in his 6.8 kicks and 6.2 handballs per game. With an average of 196.8 meters gained, Clarke is a key player in Essendon's offensive transitions. Moreover, in his overall performance, he's been even more impressive, averaging 17.8 disposals, showcasing his ability to consistently get involved in the play. Clarke's current hit streak of 1 and a hit rate of 5/6 in his last six games indicate he's in good form and poised to deliver against Hawthorn. Expect him to be in the thick of the action, racking up possessions and driving Essendon forward at the MCG.

Angus Clarke (Essendon) Over 11.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Angus Clarke, the midfield maestro for Essendon, is poised to shine in the upcoming clash against Hawthorn at the iconic MCG. With a recent average of 13 disposals per away game, Clarke's ability to find space and impact contests is undeniable. His precision with a 75.9% disposal efficiency ensures he maximizes every touch, making him a reliable ball carrier. In his last five away games, Clarke has been a consistent performer, showcasing his ability to gather possessions, create turnovers, and cover significant ground with an average of 196.8 meters gained. With his current form and a streak of 5 hits in the last 6 games, Clarke is primed to exceed the line of 11.5 disposals. The data paints a picture of a player in top form, ready to take charge and dominate the midfield battle at the 'G. Bet confidently on Clarke to deliver Over 11.5 disposals in this high-stakes showdown.

Jai Newcombe (Hawthorn) Over 24.5 Disposals (-208)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Jai Newcombe for this weekend's clash between the Hawthorn Hawks and the Essendon Bombers at the iconic MCG. Newcombe, the hard-nosed midfielder for the Hawks, is shaping up to be a solid bet for the Over 24.5 disposals line. In his last five home games, Jai has been a workhorse, averaging a whopping 28.4 disposals per match. His contested possessions and metres gained stats are on fire, showcasing his ability to hunt the footy and drive his team forward. With an impressive disposal efficiency of 69.9%, he's not just racking up numbers but doing it with precision. Facing off against Essendon, a team he's historically performed well against, Jai is set to shine. Considering his recent form and the matchup dynamics, backing Newcombe to surpass the 24.5 disposal mark seems like a smart play. Get on board with Jai Newcombe to deliver the goods in this pivotal midfield battle.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Essendon Bombers : Over 41.5 totals_q4 (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy fans, let's dissect this upcoming clash between the Hawthorn Hawks and the Essendon Bombers at the iconic MCG. When it comes to late-game scoring, the Hawks have been flying high recently. In their last 5 home games, they've been averaging a solid 85.8 points for, with an impressive 12.6 target goals per game. On the flip side, the Bombers have been a bit leaky on the road, conceding an average of 93.2 points against. Their defensive struggles could play right into Hawthorn's attacking strengths. With the Hawks looking sharp in front of goal and Essendon vulnerable at the back, the Over 41.5 in the Totals Q4 market seems like a tantalizing prospect. Expect the final quarter to light up with goals as these two teams battle it out for supremacy on the hallowed turf of the 'G.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Essendon Bombers : Over 41.5 totals_q2 (-115)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright footy fanatics, let's dissect this juicy matchup between the Hawthorn Hawks and the Essendon Bombers at the iconic MCG. When it comes to scoring trends, Hawthorn has been lighting up the scoreboard lately, averaging a solid 85.8 points per game in their last five home matches. With their sharpshooting striking force, they've been hitting the target with an average of 28.8 shots at goal and 12.6 target goals in those games. On the flip side, Essendon has struggled defensively on the road, conceding 93.2 points per game in their last five away fixtures. Their defense has been leaky, allowing an average of 40.8 inside 50s to their opponents. With Hawthorn's firepower and Essendon's vulnerability at the back, the Over 41.5 in the Totals Q2 market looks like a tantalizing bet to snag some goals and see the points tally rise before halftime. Trust the data, back the trends, and get ready to witness some footy fireworks!

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 25 July 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 6 game picks and 8 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks