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Model picks & player props
Essendon Bombers
VS
Hawthorn Hawks

Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 11:22AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sat 25 Jul 2026, 6:15AM
20
Game markets graded
11
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Hawthorn Hawks -13.5 Spread Q4 -110

The model graded 31 markets for Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $191 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 25 Jul 2026, 6:15AM at MCG.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win71.3%
The price says52.4%
Best price-110
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Q4 Hawthorn Hawks -13.5 High71% chance -110
Spread Q3 High71% chance
Spread Q2 High69% chance
Total Points Q4 Lean55% chance
Total Points Q2 Lean55% chance
Total Points Lean54% chance
Disposals × 8 props Highup to 84%
Goals × 3 props Highup to 95%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Hawthorn Hawks -13.5 · $100 returned $187

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread Q4
Hawthorn Hawks
-13.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Hawthorn HawksSpread Q4The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Hawthorn HawksSpread Q3The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Hawthorn HawksSpread Q2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Points Q4The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Points Q2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Bombers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Hawks

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Jarman Impey Hawthorn Disposals
Will Setterfield Essendon Disposals
Archie Roberts Essendon Disposals
Angus Clarke Essendon Disposals
Nate Caddy Essendon Goals

+ 11 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks — what the model found

Our model graded 31 betting markets for Essendon Bombers at Hawthorn Hawks — 20 on the game itself and 11 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
11
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 31 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 30 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks — model preview

Latest AFL betting preview: Hawthorn Hawks vs Essendon Bombers. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Archie Roberts. Keywords: AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Hawthorn Hawks vs Essendon Bombers stats and odds.

Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 23.5 Disposals (-400)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet, Archie Roberts stands out as a prime candidate to surpass the 23.5 disposals line against the Hawks this weekend at the MCG. Over his last five away games, Roberts has been a ball magnet, averaging a whopping 28.2 disposals per game. His ability to find the footy both in contested situations and uncontested possessions showcases his versatility on the field. With a stellar disposal efficiency of 77.9% in away games and an average of 19.6 kicks, Roberts is poised to make a significant impact in this matchup. Facing Hawthorn, against whom he has historically averaged 19 disposals, Roberts is set to elevate his game and provide a solid return for punters looking to capitalize on his consistent performance.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
7
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
25 Jul 26 Total Points Over 170.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Spread Q2 Hawthorn Hawks -12.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Spread Q3 Hawthorn Hawks -13.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Spread Q4 Hawthorn Hawks -13.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Total Points Q2 Over 41.5 ✗ MISS
25 Jul 26 Total Points Q4 Over 41.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Spread Q2 Hawthorn Hawks -13.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Bombers vs Hawks, or as Hawks vs Bombers. The most recent game between them was Saturday 25 July 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 20 game picks and 11 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

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