Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Cam Mackenzie is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 74%, implied 71%, edge +3.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 1, 4:22AM UTC
AFL
Cam Mackenzie
Hawthorn
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 16.5
-244 (1.41) · $100→$141
+3.4% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks
@
Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Thu 3 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
74 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 74.3% · the book's price implies 70.9% · gap +3.4%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 74.3% | — | 70.9% | 1.35 | +3.4% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 1/3 |
| Last 5 games | 3/5 |
| Last 10 games | 6/10 |
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Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Cam Mackenzie Over 16.5 Disposals (-244)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Cam Mackenzie has been showing some impressive skills lately, especially with his goal accuracy and ability to find the ball. Our numbers suggest he has a good chance to get over 16.5 disposals in this game against the Fremantle Dockers. He's been racking up the marks and has been getting involved in the play more than typical players do.
The main risk here is that the match can be quite close, which sometimes leads to lower possession counts for players. However, with Mackenzie's recent performance, he seems likely to step up and deliver. Backing him for over 16.5 disposals looks promising for this match at Optus Stadium.
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Season averages (2024)
Cam Mackenzie averaged 15.0 disposals, 0.5 goals and 2.7 marks per game across 20 games in 2024.
Hit-rate ladder: Disposals
Cam Mackenzie has cleared 12.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.
o12.590%
o13.590%
o15.590%
o16.570%
o18.560%
o19.560%
o21.530%
o23.510%
o24.510%
o26.510%
o27.50%
o29.50%
Home / away and opponent splits
Cam Mackenzie is averaging 20.0 disposals per game over his last 5.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs North Melbourne), Cam Mackenzie recorded 23 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 24 Aug 24 | North Melbourne | 23 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
| 18 Aug 24 | Richmond | 12 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 11 Aug 24 | Carlton | 22 | 0 | 6 | 2 |
| 13 Jul 24 | Fremantle | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 6 Jul 24 | Geelong Cats | 17 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 30 Jun 24 | West Coast Eagles | 17 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 15 Jun 24 | Richmond | 13 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 8 Jun 24 | GWS GIANTS | 14 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 1 Jun 24 | Adelaide Crows | 15 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| 26 May 24 | Brisbane Lions | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Cam Mackenzie (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Cam Mackenzie is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.4% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers on Thursday 3 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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