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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Cam Mackenzie is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 62 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 62%, the price says 71%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 26, 11:08AM UTC
AFL

Cam Mackenzie

Hawthorn

Value call

Cam Mackenzie (Hawthorn) has one live pick today: Disposals Over 16.5 that pays $140 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -250 (1.40) · $100→$140
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep, 7:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
62 in 100
Predicted
20.1 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 61.9% · before adjusting for past results 74.2% · the book's price implies 71.4% · gap -9.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.2%61.9%71.4%1.61+2.8%

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AI Analysis

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Cam Mackenzie Over 16.5 Disposals (-250)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Cam Mackenzie needs to have more than 16.5 disposals tonight against the Brisbane Lions. He's been playing well lately, and the Lions are known to give up a fair number of possessions. Brisbane has won 9 of their last 10 games, showing they can dominate matches, which could lead to more chances for Mackenzie to get the ball. Mackenzie's team, Hawthorn, will likely be under pressure, so he'll need to step up. The most concrete risk is that if the game stays tight, he might not get enough opportunities. However, with the Lions averaging a big lead in their recent games, there's a good chance he'll see plenty of action and hit that mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Cam Mackenzie averaged 15.0 disposals, 0.5 goals and 2.7 marks per game across 20 games in 2024.

15.0
Disposals
0.5
Goals
2.7
Marks
2.5
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs North Melbourne), Cam Mackenzie recorded 23 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24North Melbourne23045
18 Aug 24Richmond12143
11 Aug 24Carlton22062
13 Jul 24Fremantle9021
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats17035
30 Jun 24West Coast Eagles17122
15 Jun 24Richmond13222
8 Jun 24GWS GIANTS14022
1 Jun 24Adelaide Crows15042
26 May 24Brisbane Lions16131
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 16.5 Over -250 ✗ MISS
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Fantasy 69.5 Over -161 ✗ MISS
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Handballs 7.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
23 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles Handballs — — — Pending

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About This Player

Cam Mackenzie (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Cam Mackenzie is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.8% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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