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The latest Bet Better model pick for Cam Mackenzie is Over 19.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 61%, for a model edge of +10.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:04PM UTC
AFL

Cam Mackenzie

Hawthorn

+10.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 19.5 -154 (1.65)
+10.1% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
70.7%
Implied Probability
60.6%
Model Edge
+10.1%
Predicted Value
22.2 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.7%—60.6%1.41+10.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Cam Mackenzie (Hawthorn) Over 19.5 Disposals (-154)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to hit the Over on disposals, Cam Mackenzie stands out like a speckled rooster in a henhouse. His recent away form is as steady as a rock, averaging a whopping 21.8 disposals over the last five on the road. What's more, facing off against Richmond, he's been even more potent, notching up an average of 13 disposals against them in away matches. With his contested possessions and handballs trending upwards, Mackenzie's poised to be a major ball-magnet at the MCG. Add in his slick disposal efficiency of 75.2%, and you've got a recipe for success. The numbers don't lie, and Mackenzie looks primed to not just meet but exceed that 19.5 disposals line. It's a bet that's as solid as a rock-solid speckled rooster.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
80%hit L10 O 18.5
19avg disposals L5
Away21.8vs Richmond12.5Season best23
O 16.580%
O 17.580%
O 18.580%
O 19.580%
O 20.570%
O 21.550%
Game log vs line (O 18.5)avg 15.8 · hi 23 · lo 9
1615141317179221223

Cam Mackenzie has gone over 18.5 disposals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 19 disposals, best 23).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 19.5 Over -154 ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 18.5 Over -222 ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 17.5 Over -323 ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers Disposals — — — Pending
19 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers Disposals — — — Pending
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Cam Mackenzie (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Cam Mackenzie is Over 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.1% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers on Sunday 19 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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