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The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Battle is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 75%, versus the book's implied 72%, for a model edge of +2.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
AFL

Josh Battle

Hawthorn

+2.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -263 (1.38)
+2.3% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 19 Sep, 9:40AM
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Model Probability
74.8%
Implied Probability
72.5%
Model Edge
+2.3%
Predicted Value
17.8 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.8%—72.5%1.34+2.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Josh Battle (Hawthorn) Over 14.5 Disposals (-263)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Josh Battle is a solid choice for the Over 14.5 disposals bet. His recent form, averaging 17.8 disposals in away games, exceeds the line comfortably. With a high disposalefficiency of 79.3% and averaging 10.4 kicks per game away, he consistently finds the ball effectively. Against Geelong, he maintains a strong average of 15 disposals. His trend is also favorable, hitting 8/8 in away games and boasting a 6-game hit streak overall. The model's prediction of 17.8 disposals further supports his potential to surpass 14.5, with a 2.3% edge indicating value in this wager. With his current form and historical performance against Geelong, Battle is poised to snag enough possessions to clear the line.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
70%hit L10 O 18.5
18.6avg disposals L5
Away21.4vs Richmond22.8Season best28
O 16.590%
O 17.580%
O 18.570%
O 19.560%
O 20.550%
O 21.550%
Game log vs line (O 18.5)avg 18 · hi 28 · lo 10
10161721161924281613

Josh Battle has gone over 18.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 18.6 disposals, best 28).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Josh Battle (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Battle is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.3% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats on Friday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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