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Model picks & player props
Hawthorn Hawks
VS
Richmond Tigers

Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 15, 5:46AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul 2026, 3:10AM
7
Game Picks
8
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 173.5 (Total Points)
For Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers (AFL), model win probability 66.5%, fair odds 1.50, book price -116, model edge +12.8%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 19 Jul 2026, 3:10AM at MCG.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Points
Under
173.5
+ 6 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points H2Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points H1Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points Q3Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points Q1Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points Q4Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points Q2Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Richmond Tigers on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Richmond Tigers
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Betfair Ex Au
on Richmond Tigers
Shop gain & value% 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Hawks

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Tigers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Rhyan Mansell Richmond Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Cam Mackenzie Hawthorn Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Mykelti Lefau Richmond Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Noah Balta Richmond Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jayden Short Richmond Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

7 markets live
Total pointsUnder 173.5173.5 -116+12.8% edge
67%under %
161.3proj. total pts
Model pickUnder 173.5Richmond Tigers PF/G64.6Hawthorn Hawks PF/G92.0Combined PF/G156.6

Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers on Jul 19 - Total points: the model's pick is Under 173.5 at -116, a 67% under % (+12.8% edge). Over their last five games Richmond Tigers average 64.6 points and Hawthorn Hawks 92.0.

Total 1st halfUnder 85.585.5 -110+7.1% edge
59%under %
80.7proj. half pts
Model pickUnder 85.5Richmond Tigers PF/G64.6Hawthorn Hawks PF/G92.0Combined PF/G156.6

Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers on Jul 19 - Total 1st half: the model's pick is Under 85.5 at -110, a 59% under % (+7.1% edge). Over their last five games Richmond Tigers average 64.6 points and Hawthorn Hawks 92.0.

Total 2nd halfUnder 86.586.5 -111+8.8% edge
61%under %
80.7proj. half pts
Model pickUnder 86.5Richmond Tigers PF/G64.6Hawthorn Hawks PF/G92.0Combined PF/G156.6

Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers on Jul 19 - Total 2nd half: the model's pick is Under 86.5 at -111, a 61% under % (+8.8% edge). Over their last five games Richmond Tigers average 64.6 points and Hawthorn Hawks 92.0.

Total Q1Under 43.543.5 -120+4.2% edge
59%under %
40.3proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 43.5Richmond Tigers PF/G64.6Hawthorn Hawks PF/G92.0Combined PF/G156.6

Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers on Jul 19 - Total Q1: the model's pick is Under 43.5 at -120, a 59% under % (+4.2% edge). Over their last five games Richmond Tigers average 64.6 points and Hawthorn Hawks 92.0.

Total Q2Under 42.542.5 -123+0.8% edge
56%under %
40.3proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 42.5Richmond Tigers PF/G64.6Hawthorn Hawks PF/G92.0Combined PF/G156.6

Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers on Jul 19 - Total Q2: the model's pick is Under 42.5 at -123, a 56% under % (+0.8% edge). Over their last five games Richmond Tigers average 64.6 points and Hawthorn Hawks 92.0.

Total Q3Under 44.544.5 -120+6.9% edge
62%under %
40.3proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 44.5Richmond Tigers PF/G64.6Hawthorn Hawks PF/G92.0Combined PF/G156.6

Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers on Jul 19 - Total Q3: the model's pick is Under 44.5 at -120, a 62% under % (+6.9% edge). Over their last five games Richmond Tigers average 64.6 points and Hawthorn Hawks 92.0.

Total Q4Under 41.541.5 -106+1.7% edge
53%under %
40.3proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 41.5Richmond Tigers PF/G64.6Hawthorn Hawks PF/G92.0Combined PF/G156.6

Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers on Jul 19 - Total Q4: the model's pick is Under 41.5 at -106, a 53% under % (+1.7% edge). Over their last five games Richmond Tigers average 64.6 points and Hawthorn Hawks 92.0.

Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers — model preview

<p>Unlock potential winning bets for Richmond Tigers playing Hawthorn Hawks. Includes analysis on key players like Mykelti Lefau. Analysis includes AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Richmond Tigers vs Hawthorn Hawks stats and odds.</p>

Mykelti Lefau (Richmond) Over 0.5 Goals (-167)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Mykelti Lefau to snag a goal in the upcoming clash between the Richmond Tigers and the Hawthorn Hawks, the numbers paint a promising picture. Lefau has been in fine form at home, averaging 1 goal over his last 5 games, with a solid goal accuracy of 60%. His ability to impact the scoreboard is evident, with an average of 3.4 score involvements per game. Additionally, he's been getting his fair share of shots at goal, averaging 1.4 per game at home. With a current hit streak of 1 at home and 2 overall, Lefau is showing consistency in finding the big sticks. Given his recent performance and scoring trends, backing Lefau to go over 0.5 goals seems like a smart play for this Sunday showdown at the MCG.

Noah Balta (Richmond) Over 0.5 Goals (-167)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Noah Balta, the rising star for the Richmond Tigers, is poised to make a big impact against the Hawthorn Hawks at the MCG. Balta has been in scintillating form, averaging 1 goal in his last 5 home games and showing a keen eye for goal with a 30.0% goal accuracy. His ability to get involved in the attacking plays is evident, averaging 5.2 score involvements and 3.2 inside 50s at home. With an average of 2.6 shots at goal, Balta consistently puts himself in scoring positions to snag a goal. Facing Hawthorn, against whom he's scored 0.4 goals on average in their last encounters, the stage is set for Balta to split the middle and deliver for punters looking to back him to score over 0.5 goals.

Cam Mackenzie (Hawthorn) Over 18.5 Disposals (-222)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Cam Mackenzie is gearing up for a showdown at the MCG, facing off against the Richmond Tigers. The numbers paint a promising picture for Mackenzie to shine bright on the field. In his last five away games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging a hefty 21.8 disposals, well above the 18.5 line. His precision is on point too, with a solid 75.2% disposal efficiency. Against the Tigers, Mackenzie has notched up an average of 13 disposals in his last five encounters. With his current form boasting a 6/7 hit rate in away games, and a solid 9/11 hit rate overall, Mackenzie looks poised to dominate the possession game once again. So, expect him to rack up the numbers and comfortably surpass the 18.5 line in this clash.

Richmond Tigers vs Hawthorn Hawks : Under 86.5 totals_h2 (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy fans, let's break down why hitting the 'Under 86.5' in the Totals H2 market for the Richmond Tigers versus Hawthorn Hawks clash at the MCG is a smart play. Both teams have been showing strong defensive prowess lately. The Tigers, in their last five home games, have been allowing an average of just 80.6 points against, with solid inside 50 numbers limiting opposition scoring opportunities. On the flip side, the Hawks have been tightening up their defense on the road, conceding only 79.8 points on average in their last five away games. Considering these defensive trends and the intense pressure both teams are bringing, it's likely we'll see a closely fought, low-scoring affair at the 'G. So, expect both sides to make it tough for the opposition to snag goals and keep the scoreboard relatively quiet.

Richmond Tigers vs Hawthorn Hawks : Under 85.5 totals_h1 (-110)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When the Richmond Tigers clash with the Hawthorn Hawks at the iconic MCG, the stage is set for a defensive showdown. Recent form guides us towards a low-scoring affair. The Tigers, averaging 64 points in their last five games, face off against the Hawks, conceding just 79.8 points on average in their away matches. Richmond has been stingy at home, limiting opponents to 80.6 points per game. Meanwhile, Hawthorn's attacking prowess is balanced by their defensive resilience, holding teams to 82.8 points over their last five outings. With both teams showing discipline in defense and the Tigers struggling to convert opportunities into goals, the Under 85.5 bet in the Totals H1 market appears to be a prudent choice for punters seeking value in a game where every snag matters.

Richmond Tigers vs Hawthorn Hawks : Under 44.5 totals_q3 (-120)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright footy fans, let's break down why the Under 44.5 in the Totals Q3 market for the Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks clash at the hallowed MCG could be a savvy play. The Tigers, known for their defensive prowess, have been holding opponents to an average of 80.6 points in their last five home games. Meanwhile, the Hawks have been solid on the road, conceding just 79.8 points on average in their away fixtures. With both teams showing a tendency to keep scores relatively low, the stage is set for a tightly contested third quarter. Richmond's average of 64 points scored in their recent games combined with Hawthorn's stingy defense suggests a potential defensive battle after the main break. Expect both teams to tighten up, making it tough for either side to snag easy goals. This matchup has all the ingredients for a hard-fought, low-scoring third quarter.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate
DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 19 July 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 7 game picks and 8 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.