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Model picks & player props
Hawthorn Hawks
VS
Richmond Tigers

Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 19, 6:17PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul 2026, 3:10AM
20
Game markets graded
10
Props graded
62.5%
Historical Hit Rate
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Under 177.5 (Total Points)
The model graded 30 markets for Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $189 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 62.5% across 24 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 71.5%, fair odds 1.40, book price -112, model edge +18.6%. Tip-off Sun 19 Jul 2026, 3:10AM at MCG.
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Under 177.5 · $100 returned $189

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Points
Under
177.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points Q2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points Q2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Hawks

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Tigers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Tim Taranto Richmond Goals
Rhyan Mansell Richmond Goals
Noah Balta Richmond Goals
Cam Mackenzie Hawthorn Disposals
Mykelti Lefau Richmond Goals

+ 10 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers — what the model found

Our model graded 30 betting markets for Hawthorn Hawks at Richmond Tigers — 20 on the game itself and 10 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
10
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 30 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 29 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers — model preview

Expert analysis and top betting picks for Richmond Tigers vs Hawthorn Hawks. Includes analysis on key players like Noah Balta. Discover AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Richmond Tigers vs Hawthorn Hawks stats and odds.

Noah Balta (Richmond) Over 0.5 Goals (-167)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Noah Balta, the rising star for the Tigers, is poised to make a big impact in this clash against the Hawks at the MCG. In his last five home games, Balta has been averaging 2.6 shots at goal, showcasing his ability to get in scoring positions. With a goal average of 1 in those games and a recent uptick in goal accuracy to 30%, Balta is finding his groove in front of the big sticks. His involvement in the Tigers' scoring plays, averaging 5.2 score involvements per game, further solidifies his importance in Richmond's forward line. Facing the Hawks, against whom he has historically performed well, Balta is primed to snag a goal and help push the Tigers over the line. Betting on Balta to score over 0.5 goals seems like a smart play given his recent form and matchup advantages.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
24
Total Picks
62.5%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
19 Jul 26 Total Points Under 173.5 ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Total Points Q1 Under 43.5 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Total Points Q2 Under 42.5 ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Total Points Q3 Under 44.5 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Total Points Q4 Under 41.5 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Total Points H1 Under 85.5 ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Total Points H2 Under 86.5 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Total Points Under 172.5 ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Total Points Q2 Under 41.5 ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Total Points H1 Under 86.5 ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Total Points Under 177.5 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Total Points H1 Under 89.5 ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Total Points Under 176.5 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Total Points Q1 Under 44.5 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Total Points Q3 Under 45.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Hawks vs Tigers, or as Tigers vs Hawks. The most recent game between them was Sunday 19 July 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 20 game picks and 10 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 62.5% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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