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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jai Newcombe is Over 23.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 79%, versus the book's implied 68%, for a model edge of +10.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 11:05AM UTC
AFL

Jai Newcombe

Hawthorn

+10.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 23.5 -217 (1.46)
+10.3% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Fri 7 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
78.8%
Implied Probability
68.5%
Model Edge
+10.3%
Predicted Value
27.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals78.8%68.5%1.27+10.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Jai Newcombe (Hawthorn) Over 23.5 Disposals (-217)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When looking at Jai Newcombe's recent performance, it's clear he's been a force to be reckoned with on the field. In his last five away games, he's been averaging a solid 23.4 disposals per game, just shy of the line set at 23.5. Plus, his contested possessions sit at a respectable 11.6, showing he's not afraid to get stuck into the thick of the action. With an impressive disposal efficiency of 75.9% and an average of 9.2 kicks per game, he's not just racking up numbers but doing so with precision. Against the upcoming opponent, the Brisbane Lions, he's even exceeded the line, averaging 24.8 disposals in their previous encounters. Given his recent form and consistency, backing Jai Newcombe to go over 23.5 disposals in this matchup seems like a smart play.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs Brisbane LionsO 24.5 -156
70%hit L10 O 24.5
25.2avg disposals L5
Away23.4vs Brisbane Lions24.8Season best35
O 22.570%
O 23.570%
O 24.570%
O 25.560%
O 26.560%
O 27.550%
Game log vs line (O 24.5)6 / 10 hit
15162522302333353531

Jai Newcombe has gone over 24.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 25.2 disposals, best 35). Current line: Over 24.5 at -156.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 20.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 21.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 22.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals Pending
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals Pending
25 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Jai Newcombe (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jai Newcombe is Over 23.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.3% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions on Friday 7 August at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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