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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jai Newcombe is Over 21.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 81 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 81%, implied 71%, edge +9.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 15, 7:48AM UTC
AFL

Jai Newcombe

Hawthorn

+9.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 21.5 -250 (1.40) · $100→$140
+9.3% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep, 7:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
81 in 100
Predicted
26.1 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 80.8% · the book's price implies 71.4% · gap +9.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals80.8%71.4%1.24+9.3%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Jai Newcombe Over 21.5 Disposals (-250)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds for Jai Newcombe to have over 21.5 disposals are looking pretty good. The Brisbane Lions have been on fire, winning 9 of their last 10 games. They also average nearly 50 points before half-time, showing they know how to control the game early. Newcombe has a solid chance to rack up disposals as he plays a key role in the Hawks' midfield. However, the most concrete risk is that Hawthorn is facing a tough opponent in the Lions, who have been dominating games lately. Still, with the way our numbers rate Newcombe's performance, it's worth a shot to see him exceed that disposal count.

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Pick History & Track Record

Jai Newcombe's lines for Sat 19 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Disposals 21.5

Jai Newcombe's disposals line is 21.5.

Disposals 20.5

Jai Newcombe's disposals line is 20.5.

Disposals 19.5

Jai Newcombe's disposals line is 19.5.

Disposals 18.5

Jai Newcombe's disposals line is 18.5.

Disposals 22.5

Jai Newcombe's disposals line is 22.5.

Season averages (2024)

Jai Newcombe averaged 24.8 disposals, 0.4 goals and 3.9 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

24.8
Disposals
0.4
Goals
3.9
Marks
4.4
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Jai Newcombe has cleared 17.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o17.5100%
o18.590%
o20.570%
o22.560%
o24.550%
o25.540%
o27.530%
o29.520%
o31.510%
o32.510%
o34.50%
o36.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Jai Newcombe is averaging 24.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

24.6
Disp · Overall
0.4
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Jai Newcombe recorded 31 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide31036
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs35194
24 Aug 24North Melbourne35151
18 Aug 24Richmond33175
11 Aug 24Carlton23062
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS30036
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows22253
20 Jul 24Collingwood25133
13 Jul 24Fremantle16118
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats15034
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 22.5 Over -175 ✗ MISS
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 21.5 Over -244 ✗ MISS
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 20.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Kicks Pending

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About This Player

Jai Newcombe (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jai Newcombe is Over 21.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.3% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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