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AFL

Jai Newcombe

Hawthorn

Value call

Jai Newcombe (Hawthorn) has one live pick today: over 22.5 disposals that pays $158 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
58 in 100
Predicted
26.1 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 58.2% · before adjusting for past results 75.2% · the book's price implies 63.3% · gap -5.1%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep, 5:15 PM AEST
Jai Newcombe
over 22.5 disposals
Disposals Over 22.5 -172 (1.58) · $100→$158
Value call
LEANWins about 58 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$15.80 Odds-172
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jai Newcombe is Over 22.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 58 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 58%, the price says 63%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:05PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals75.2%58.2%63.3%1.72+11.9%

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AI Analysis

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Jai Newcombe Over 22.5 Disposals (-172)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds for Jai Newcombe to have over 22.5 disposals are looking pretty solid. The Brisbane Lions have been on a tear, winning 9 of their last 10 games and averaging nearly 50 points before half-time in their last 12 matches. This shows they're playing with confidence and creating plenty of opportunities on the field. Newcombe has a good chance of stepping up in this matchup, especially considering how the Lions are dominating recent games. The only real worry is that the two teams are closely matched, which might make it harder for him to rack up those disposals. Still, with Brisbane's strong form, this bet feels like a good shot.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Jai Newcombe averaged 24.8 disposals, 0.4 goals and 3.9 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

24.8
Disposals
0.4
Goals
3.9
Marks
4.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Jai Newcombe recorded 31 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide31036
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs35194
24 Aug 24North Melbourne35151
18 Aug 24Richmond33175
11 Aug 24Carlton23062
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS30036
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows22253
20 Jul 24Collingwood25133
13 Jul 24Fremantle16118
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats15034
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Kicks 9.5 Over -222 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 18.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 19.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jai Newcombe (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jai Newcombe is Over 22.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.9% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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