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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jai Newcombe is Over 9.5 on Kicks.
On Kicks, our numbers say this bet wins about 76 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 76%, implied 76%, edge +0.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 25, 2:51PM UTC
AFL

Jai Newcombe

Hawthorn

+0.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Kicks Over 9.5 -313 (1.32) · $100→$132
+0.4% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sun 23 Aug, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
76 in 100
Predicted
12.3 Kicks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 76.1% · the book's price implies 75.8% · gap +0.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Kicks76.1%—75.8%1.31+0.4%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Jai Newcombe (Hawthorn) Over 9.5 player_kicks_over (-312)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Jai Newcombe for this Sunday's clash between the Hawks and the Eagles at Optus Stadium. Now, when it comes to racking up the kicks, Newcombe has been a real workhorse on the field. With a model prediction of 12.3 kicks for this game and a history of hitting that mark consistently, it's hard to ignore the value here. Sure, the line is set at 9.5, but when you look at Newcombe's average and the confidence level of the model, the Over seems like a no-brainer. Playing away might give some pause, but this young gun has shown he can bring the heat no matter the venue. So, if you fancy a solid bet with a high probability of hitting, backing Jai Newcombe to go Over 9.5 kicks could be the play to make this weekend. Keep an eye on this rising star as he looks to make his mark in Perth.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 8 of last 10(80%)

Season averages (2024)

Jai Newcombe averaged 24.8 disposals, 0.4 goals and 3.9 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

24.8
Disposals
0.4
Goals
3.9
Marks
4.4
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Jai Newcombe has cleared 19.5 disposals in 80% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o19.580%
o20.580%
o22.580%
o24.570%
o26.560%
o27.550%
o29.540%
o31.520%
o33.520%
o34.510%
o36.50%
o38.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Jai Newcombe is averaging 26.0 disposals per game over his last 5.

26.0
Disp · Overall
0.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Jai Newcombe recorded 31 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide31036
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs35194
24 Aug 24North Melbourne35151
18 Aug 24Richmond33175
11 Aug 24Carlton23062
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS30036
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows22253
20 Jul 24Collingwood25133
13 Jul 24Fremantle16118
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats15034
Quick answers:How many disposals does Jai Newcombe average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles Kicks 9.5 Over -313 ✓ HIT
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 24.5 Over -118 ✓ HIT
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 23.5 Over -161 ✓ HIT
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jai Newcombe (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jai Newcombe is Over 9.5 on Kicks. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.4% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs West Coast Eagles on Sunday 23 August at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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