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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jai Newcombe is Over 24.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 72%, for a model edge of +0.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 8:03AM UTC
AFL

Jai Newcombe

Hawthorn

+0.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 24.5 -256 (1.39)
+0.5% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
72.5%
Implied Probability
71.9%
Model Edge
+0.5%
Predicted Value
27.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.5%—71.9%1.38+0.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games3/10

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AI Analysis

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Jai Newcombe (Hawthorn) Over 24.5 Disposals (-256)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Jai Newcombe hitting the over on 24.5 disposals against the Richmond Tigers, the numbers paint a compelling picture. Over his last five away games, Jai's been a midfield force, averaging a solid 24.8 disposals per match, comfortably above the line. Against Richmond specifically, he's even more prolific, with an average of 29 disposals in their recent encounters. With his knack for contested possessions, efficient ball use at 77.8%, and consistent metres gained at 329.2, Jai's set to make a significant impact in the upcoming clash at the MCG. His recent form, coupled with a hunger to maintain his streak, makes the Over on his disposals a tantalizing bet with a high probability of paying off.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs RichmondO 24.5 -256+0.5% edge
70%hit L10 O 24.5
28.6avg disposals L5
Away24.8vs Richmond29Season best35
O 22.580%
O 23.580%
O 24.570%
O 25.560%
O 26.550%
O 27.530%
Game log vs line (O 24.5)6 / 10 hit
15162522302333353531

Jai Newcombe has gone over 24.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 28.6 disposals, best 35). Current line: Over 24.5 at -256, model edge +0.5%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Disposals 24.5 Over -204 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Disposals 23.5 Over -278 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Disposals 22.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
19 Mar 26 Sydney Swans @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jai Newcombe (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jai Newcombe is Over 24.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.5% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers on Sunday 19 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.