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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jack Gunston is Over 2.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 65%, for a model edge of +9.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:04PM UTC
AFL

Jack Gunston

Hawthorn

+9.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 2.5 -189 (1.53)
+9.0% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 11 Jul, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
74.4%
Implied Probability
65.4%
Model Edge
+9.0%
Predicted Value
3.0 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals74.4%—65.4%1.34+9.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) Over 2.5 Goals (-189)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a seasoned forward like Jack Gunston to snag over 2.5 goals in the upcoming clash against Carlton, the numbers paint a compelling picture. Gunston has been in scintillating form, averaging an impressive 4 goals per game over his last 5 away fixtures. His accuracy in front of goal sits at a solid 60.2%, indicating he's making his shots count. With an average of 4.4 marks inside 50 and 7.2 score involvements per game, Gunston is a constant threat in the attacking half. Against Carlton specifically, he's been even more lethal, averaging 2.2 goals per game in their last 5 encounters. With a current away hit streak and a stellar overall hit rate, Gunston is primed to light up the scoreboard once again at the MCG. Bet confidently on Gunston to deliver the goods and split the middle multiple times this weekend.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 11.5
11.8avg disposals L5
Away12.8vs Richmond9.6Season best17
O 9.580%
O 10.560%
O 11.550%
O 12.550%
O 13.530%
O 14.520%
Game log vs line (O 11.5)avg 7.9 · hi 17 · lo 1
71162515171042

Jack Gunston has gone over 11.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 11.8 disposals, best 17).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
80%hit L10 O 2.5
3avg goals L5
Away3.8vs Richmond2.2Season best5
O 1.580%
O 2.580%
O 3.550%
O 4.540%
O 5.510%
Game log vs line (O 2.5)avg 1.8 · hi 5 · lo 0
3010435110

Jack Gunston has gone over 2.5 goals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 3 goals, best 5).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Goals 2.5 Over -189 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Goals 1.5 Over -667 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 2.5 Over -133 ✗ MISS
04 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals — — — Pending
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals — — — Pending
11 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jack Gunston is Over 2.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.0% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues on Saturday 11 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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