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AFL

Jack Gunston

Hawthorn

Value call

Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) has one live pick today: over 3.5 marks that pays $135 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
68 in 100
Predicted
5.6 marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 67.8% · before adjusting for past results 79.9% · the book's price implies 74.1% · gap -6.3%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep, 5:15 PM AEST
Jack Gunston
over 3.5 marks
Marks Over 3.5 -286 (1.35) · $100→$135
Value call
HIGHWins about 68 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$13.50 Odds-286
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jack Gunston is Over 3.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 68 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 68%, the price says 74%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 12, 11:58PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 27°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks79.9%67.8%74.1%1.48+5.8%

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AI Analysis

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Jack Gunston Over 3.5 Marks (-286)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For this bet to hit, Jack Gunston needs to take over 3.5 marks tonight against the Brisbane Lions. Our numbers really like this pick because Gunston has shown he can get open and make plays, and the stats back it up. He's been getting a lot of opportunities, while the Lions struggle to defend against strong marks. One thing to watch out for is that both teams are pretty evenly matched, so Gunston might face tougher competition than usual. Still, with his recent performances and the high chance of him getting those marks, this bet looks solid. Let's see how it plays out at the MCG!

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Jack Gunston averaged 8.8 disposals, 1.6 goals and 4.6 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

8.8
Disposals
1.6
Goals
4.6
Marks
1.2
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Jack Gunston recorded 2 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide2010
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs4121
24 Aug 24North Melbourne10132
18 Aug 24Richmond17591
11 Aug 24Carlton15392
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS5431
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats2020
30 Jun 24West Coast Eagles16152
15 Jun 24Richmond1010
8 Jun 24GWS GIANTS7360
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Marks 3.5 Over -286 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Goals 1.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Goals 2.5 Over -133 ✓ HIT
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Goals — — — Pending
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals — — — Pending
25 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jack Gunston is Over 3.5 on Marks. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.8% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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