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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jack Gunston is Over 1.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 79 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 79%, implied 76%, edge +2.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 6:01AM UTC
AFL

Jack Gunston

Hawthorn

+2.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 1.5 -323 (1.31) · $100→$131
+2.8% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Thu 3 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 27°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
79 in 100
Predicted
2.8 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 79.2% · the book's price implies 76.3% · gap +2.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals79.2%—76.3%1.26+2.8%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Jack Gunston Over 1.5 Goals (-323)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jack Gunston has been known to score goals, and our numbers show he's a strong favorite to net more than one in this match. Fremantle Dockers are going up against Hawthorn Hawks at Optus Stadium, and with Gunston's skills, he should find the back of the net. However, there's a chance the game could be tight since both teams have been struggling in some areas, especially with clearances. Still, the odds are in Gunston's favor to score over 1.5 goals, making this a solid pick for a fun bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Season averages (2024)

Jack Gunston averaged 8.8 disposals, 1.6 goals and 4.6 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

8.8
Disposals
1.6
Goals
4.6
Marks
1.2
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Jack Gunston has cleared 9.5 disposals in 50% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.550%
o10.540%
o11.530%
o12.520%
o13.520%
o14.520%
o15.520%
o16.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Jack Gunston is averaging 10.2 disposals per game over his last 5 and 10.4 in away games, including his recent form against Fremantle.

10.2
Disp · Overall
10.4
Disp · Away
9.3
Disp · vs Fremantle
3.8
Goals · Overall
3.4
Goals · Away
2.5
Goals · vs Fremantle

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Jack Gunston recorded 2 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide2010
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs4121
24 Aug 24North Melbourne10132
18 Aug 24Richmond17591
11 Aug 24Carlton15392
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS5431
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats2020
30 Jun 24West Coast Eagles16152
15 Jun 24Richmond1010
8 Jun 24GWS GIANTS7360
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Goals 2.5 Over -149 ✓ HIT
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Goals 1.5 Over -526 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 2.5 Over -286 ✗ MISS
25 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals — — — Pending
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Goals — — — Pending
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jack Gunston is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.8% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers on Thursday 3 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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