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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jack Gunston is Over 3.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 66 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 66%, the price says 74%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 1:23PM UTC
AFL

Jack Gunston

Hawthorn

Value call

Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) has one live pick today: Marks Over 3.5 that pays $136 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 3.5 -278 (1.36) · $100→$136
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep, 7:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 27°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
66 in 100
Predicted
5.5 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 66.4% · before adjusting for past results 79.3% · the book's price implies 73.5% · gap -7.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks79.3%66.4%73.5%1.51+5.8%

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AI Analysis

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Jack Gunston Over 3.5 Marks (-278)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For Jack Gunston to get over 3.5 marks tonight, he'll need to find some space and get his hands on the ball. Hawthorn tends to get the ball into their attacking area more often, averaging over eight extra trips inside 50 compared to their opponents. That could give Gunston plenty of chances to grab those marks. While the Brisbane Lions have been on a roll, winning nine out of their last ten games, they can also give up opportunities. Hawthorn's ruck players have been strong, winning the hit-out count by a good margin, which helps set up plays for Gunston. The main risk is that Brisbane's defense is solid, but with Hawthorn's style, Gunston should have chances to shine.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 7 of last 10(70%)

Season averages (2024)

Jack Gunston averaged 8.8 disposals, 1.6 goals and 4.6 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

8.8
Disposals
1.6
Goals
4.6
Marks
1.2
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Jack Gunston recorded 2 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide2010
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs4121
24 Aug 24North Melbourne10132
18 Aug 24Richmond17591
11 Aug 24Carlton15392
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS5431
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats2020
30 Jun 24West Coast Eagles16152
15 Jun 24Richmond1010
8 Jun 24GWS GIANTS7360
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Marks 3.5 Over -278 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Goals 1.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Goals 2.5 Over -137 ✓ HIT
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Goals Pending
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals Pending
25 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals Pending

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About This Player

Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jack Gunston is Over 3.5 on Marks. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.8% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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