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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jarman Impey is Under 26.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 55%, for a model edge of +16.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 8:30PM UTC
AFL

Jarman Impey

Hawthorn

+16.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 26.5 -120 (1.83) · $100→$183
+16.7% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks
University of Tasmania Stadium, Launceston, TAS · Outdoor
Sat 1 Aug, 3:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
71.4%
Implied Probability
54.6%
Model Edge
+16.7%
Predicted Value
23.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.4%54.6%1.40+16.7%

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AI Analysis

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Jarman Impey (Hawthorn) Under 26.5 Disposals (-120)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Jarman Impey's recent form, the numbers tell a compelling story for taking the Under 26.5 disposals bet in this upcoming clash. Despite his solid season average, Impey's last five home games have seen him fall below the 26.5 mark more often than not. With his contested possessions averaging 5.6 and disposals at 27.6 in these home games, there's a trend showing he may struggle to hit that line against North Melbourne. Additionally, his disposal efficiency at 79.3% and turnovers at 4.6 could indicate potential challenges in maintaining possession against a tough Kangaroos midfield. Considering the model's prediction of 23.7 disposals and an implied probability of 54.6%, the data points towards a solid opportunity to snag a win by betting on Impey to stay under the 26.5 mark this time around.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Jarman Impey averaged 18.8 disposals, 0.1 goals and 5.6 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

18.8
Disposals
0.1
Goals
5.6
Marks
2.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Jarman Impey recorded 14 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide14025
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs19031
24 Aug 24North Melbourne23031
18 Aug 24Richmond18074
11 Aug 24Carlton25060
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS17024
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows20181
20 Jul 24Collingwood13124
13 Jul 24Fremantle17051
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats22045
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals Pending
25 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Jarman Impey (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jarman Impey is Under 26.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.7% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 1 August at University of Tasmania Stadium, Launceston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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