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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jarman Impey is Under 26.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +17.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 22, 1:55PM UTC
AFL

Jarman Impey

Hawthorn

+17.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 26.5 -115 (1.87)
+17.9% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 25 Jul, 6:15AM
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Model Probability
71.4%
Implied Probability
53.5%
Model Edge
+17.9%
Predicted Value
23.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.4%—53.5%1.40+17.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games2/10

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AI Analysis

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Jarman Impey (Hawthorn) Under 26.5 Disposals (-115)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's dig into why targeting Jarman Impey for Under 26.5 disposals against the Essendon Bombers at the MCG is a savvy move. Impey, a dynamic presence for the Hawks, has been solid but not a prolific ball magnet lately. Over his last five home games, he's averaged 25.4 disposals, just shy of the 26.5 line. His recent form against Essendon also falls below this mark, averaging 18 disposals in their matchups. Plus, with his contested possessions at 5 and turnovers at 4.8 in his home games, there are indications he might not hit that 26.5 threshold. Impey's consistency has been good, but not quite at the level to clear this line. The smart money leans towards the Under here.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs EssendonO 26.5 -115+17.9% edge
22.6avg disposals L5
Home25.4vs Essendon18.2Season best27
O 24.540%
O 25.540%
O 26.540%
O 27.530%
O 28.520%
O 29.510%
Game log vs line (O 26.5)0 / 10 hit
22171320172518231914

Jarman Impey has gone over 26.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 22.6 disposals, best 27). Current line: Over 26.5 at -115, model edge +17.9%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 18.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
11 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 17.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
11 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 16.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
11 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
06 Apr 26 Geelong Cats @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
06 Apr 26 Geelong Cats @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jarman Impey (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jarman Impey is Under 26.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.9% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 25 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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