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Model picks & player props
Port Adelaide Power
VS
Hawthorn Hawks

Port Adelaide Power vs Hawthorn Hawks Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 3:53PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr 2026, 6:15AM
17
Game markets graded
13
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Over 152.5 (Total Points)
The model graded 30 markets for Port Adelaide Power vs Hawthorn Hawks (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $189 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 72.6%, fair odds 1.38, book price -112, model edge +19.7%. Tip-off Sat 18 Apr 2026, 6:15AM at Marvel Stadium.

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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Points
Over
152.5
+ 16 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Port Adelaide PowerHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Hawthorn HawksSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Port Adelaide PowerSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Port Adelaide PowerSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Hawthorn HawksSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Port Adelaide PowerSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Power

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Hawks

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Port Adelaide Power vs Hawthorn Hawks: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Karl Amon Hawthorn Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jack Ginnivan Hawthorn Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Mitch Georgiades Port Adelaide Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Todd Marshall Port Adelaide Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Lloyd Meek Hawthorn Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks — what the model found

Our model graded 30 betting markets for Port Adelaide Power at Hawthorn Hawks — 17 on the game itself and 13 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

17
Game markets graded
13
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 30 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 29 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks — model preview

Latest AFL betting preview: Hawthorn Hawks vs Port Adelaide Power. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Ollie Wines. Keywords: AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Hawthorn Hawks vs Port Adelaide Power stats and odds.

Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide) Over 20.5 Disposals (-323)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to midfield maestros, Ollie Wines stands tall as a prime playmaker for Port Adelaide. Set to clash with Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium, Wines brings a potent mix of skill and consistency to the turf. In his last five away games, Wines has been a disposal machine, averaging a hefty 21.8 possessions. Facing Hawthorn, he's even more prolific, boasting an average of 34.5 disposals in their recent encounters. With a knack for finding the pill and a sharp disposal efficiency of 63.9%, Wines is poised to orchestrate Port Adelaide's midfield dominance. Expect him to hunt the ball aggressively, split the defense, and rack up the touches to comfortably surpass the 20.5 disposal line set by sportsbet. Wines is primed to shine brightly in this clash, making the Over a compelling play for astute punters.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
2
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
18 Apr 26 Spread Hawthorn Hawks -40.5 ✗ MISS
18 Apr 26 Spread Hawthorn Hawks -43.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Port Adelaide Power vs Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Power vs Hawks, or as Hawks vs Power. The most recent game between them was Saturday 18 April 2026 at Marvel Stadium. The model has generated 17 game picks and 13 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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