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Model picks & player props
Port Adelaide Power
VS
Hawthorn Hawks

Port Adelaide Power vs Hawthorn Hawks Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:18AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr 2026, 6:15AM
17
Game Picks
13
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 152.5 (Total Points)
For Port Adelaide Power vs Hawthorn Hawks (AFL), model win probability 72.6%, fair odds 1.38, book price -112, model edge +19.7%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 18 Apr 2026, 6:15AM at Marvel Stadium.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Points
Over
152.5
+ 16 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Port Adelaide PowerHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Hawthorn HawksSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Port Adelaide PowerSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Port Adelaide PowerSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Hawthorn HawksSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Port Adelaide PowerSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Power

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Hawks

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Port Adelaide Power vs Hawthorn Hawks: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Karl Amon Hawthorn Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jack Ginnivan Hawthorn Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Mitch Georgiades Port Adelaide Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Todd Marshall Port Adelaide Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Lloyd Meek Hawthorn Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks — model preview

<p>Latest AFL betting preview: Hawthorn Hawks vs Port Adelaide Power. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Ollie Wines. Keywords: AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Hawthorn Hawks vs Port Adelaide Power stats and odds.</p>

Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide) Over 20.5 Disposals (-323)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to midfield maestros, Ollie Wines stands tall as a prime playmaker for Port Adelaide. Set to clash with Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium, Wines brings a potent mix of skill and consistency to the turf. In his last five away games, Wines has been a disposal machine, averaging a hefty 21.8 possessions. Facing Hawthorn, he's even more prolific, boasting an average of 34.5 disposals in their recent encounters. With a knack for finding the pill and a sharp disposal efficiency of 63.9%, Wines is poised to orchestrate Port Adelaide's midfield dominance. Expect him to hunt the ball aggressively, split the defense, and rack up the touches to comfortably surpass the 20.5 disposal line set by sportsbet. Wines is primed to shine brightly in this clash, making the Over a compelling play for astute punters.

Miles Bergman (Port Adelaide) Over 15.5 Disposals (-164)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Miles Bergman for this weekend's clash between the Port Adelaide Power and the Hawthorn Hawks. Bergman, the young gun on the away side, has been showing some serious form lately. In his last five away games, he's been an absolute workhorse, averaging 13.6 disposals per match. Facing off against Hawthorn, a team he's historically performed well against, with an average of 12.5 disposals in their recent encounters, the stage is set for Bergman to shine. With an average disposals prediction of 18.2 for this game and a solid 64.0% disposal efficiency on the road, Bergman is poised to make a significant impact. His ability to find space, gain meters, and create opportunities for his team makes hitting that Over 15.5 disposals mark look like a solid bet. So, if you're looking for a player prop with a strong statistical backing, putting your money on Bergman to rack up the possessions seems like a smart play.

Miles Bergman (Port Adelaide) Over 14.5 Disposals (-238)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking ahead to the clash between the Hawthorn Hawks and the Port Adelaide Power, all eyes are on Miles Bergman to shine bright on the field. With an average of 13.6 disposals in his last five away games, Bergman has been a consistent force in finding the footy. Against their upcoming opponent, Hawthorn, he has even managed to elevate his game, averaging 12.5 disposals in their recent encounters. Bergman's ability to cover the ground efficiently is evident with his 309.8 metres gained on average in away games. His knack for intercepts and contested possessions further bolsters his case to go over 14.5 disposals this game. With a model predicting him at 18.2 disposals and a solid 64.0% disposal efficiency, Bergman is poised to make a significant impact in this matchup. Betting on him to surpass 14.5 disposals seems like a prudent move given his recent form and matchup history.

Conor Nash (Hawthorn) Over 17.5 Disposals (-200)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Conor Nash, the Irish sensation for the Hawthorn Hawks, is primed to shine in front of the home crowd at Marvel Stadium against the Port Adelaide Power. Over his last five home games, Nash has been a midfield maestro, averaging a hefty 19.2 disposals with a commanding contested possessions average of 9. Facing Port Adelaide, he's elevated his game further, notching up an impressive 16 disposals per matchup. With an average of 10.4 handballs and 8.8 kicks in his recent home performances, Nash is a well-rounded playmaker who can impact the game in multiple ways. His disposal efficiency of 73.9% underscores his precision on the field. Riding a hot streak and boasting a solid hit rate, Nash looks set to exceed the bookmaker's line of 17.5 disposals. Betting on Nash to surpass this mark is a smart move backed by his consistent form and favorable matchup dynamics.

Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide) Over 19.5 Disposals (-500)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Ollie Wines is a midfield maestro set to shine when Port Adelaide faces Hawthorn. In his last five away games, Wines has been a disposal-gathering machine, averaging a hefty 21.8 disposals per match. Against Hawthorn specifically, he's been even more dominant, averaging 34.5 disposals in their last five encounters. With a knack for contested possessions (9.8 avg) and efficient ball use (63.9% avg disposal efficiency), Wines is poised to control the game's tempo. His recent form, including 13.8 handballs and 8 kicks per game, showcases his all-around impact on the field. Moreover, boasting a solid 220.4 meters gained per game, Wines can turn defense into attack swiftly. With the line set at 19.5 disposals, backing Wines to surpass that mark seems like a smart play given his recent performances and historical success against Hawthorn.

Kane Farrell (Port Adelaide) Over 18.5 Disposals (-250)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player for disposals, Kane Farrell is a prime candidate for a standout performance against Hawthorn. In his last five away games, Farrell has been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 20.4 disposals, well above the set line of 18.5. His ability to find space and create opportunities is evident in his impressive 72.1% disposal efficiency. Facing Hawthorn, whom he has historically outperformed with an average of 13 disposals in their recent encounters, Farrell is set to shine. With a streak of three consecutive hits and a model predicting him to exceed 22 disposals, the signs all point to Farrell snagging this bet with ease. Expect him to split the middle and deliver for Port Adelaide in a big way at Marvel Stadium.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
2
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
18 Apr 26 Spread Hawthorn Hawks -40.5 ✗ MISS
18 Apr 26 Spread Hawthorn Hawks -43.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Port Adelaide Power vs Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026 at Marvel Stadium. The model has generated 17 game picks and 13 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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