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Model picks & player props
St Kilda Saints
VS
Essendon Bombers

St Kilda Saints vs Essendon Bombers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:18AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sun 5 Jul 2026, 5:15AM
20
Game Picks
7
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 179.5 (Total Points)
For St Kilda Saints vs Essendon Bombers (AFL), model win probability 69.8%, fair odds 1.43, book price -116, model edge +16.0%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 5 Jul 2026, 5:15AM at Marvel Stadium.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Points
Under
176.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Saints

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Bombers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For St Kilda Saints vs Essendon Bombers: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Mason Redman Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nate Caddy Essendon Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Darcy Parish Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Isaac Kako Essendon Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Isaac Kako Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers — model preview

<p>Latest AFL betting preview: Essendon Bombers vs St Kilda Saints. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Isaac Kako. Keywords: AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Essendon Bombers vs St Kilda Saints stats and odds.</p>

Isaac Kako (Essendon) Over 10.5 Disposals (-156)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Isaac Kako, the midfield maestro for Essendon, is poised to shine in this upcoming clash against St Kilda at Marvel Stadium. Over his last five home games, Kako has been a disposal machine, averaging a stellar 14.4 possessions per game. His ability to find space and impact the contest is highlighted by his impressive average of 6.2 kicks and 8.2 handballs. Not only does he rack up the touches, but he does so efficiently, boasting a solid 72.3% disposal efficiency rate. Against St Kilda specifically, he has averaged 12 disposals in their previous encounters, suggesting he thrives in this matchup. With a model prediction of 13.2 disposals and a strong historical hit rate, backing Kako to surpass 10.5 disposals is a smart move for any footy punter looking to snag a win on this Sunday showdown.

Darcy Parish (Essendon) Over 20.5 Disposals (-400)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player for disposals, Darcy Parish stands out like a shining light on a dark, rainy day. Home at Marvel Stadium, Parish has been a midfield maestro in recent outings. Averaging a solid 24.4 disposals over his last 5 home games, he's been a possession magnet. Facing St Kilda, against whom he's churned out an impressive 30 disposals on average, Parish seems set to feast on the footy. With an overall hit rate of 8/8 and a current hit streak of 5 at home, Parish is in the form of his life. Expect him to thread his way through traffic, rack up the possessions, and comfortably surpass the 20.5 disposal line. Locking in Parish for the over is as safe as houses.

Isaac Kako (Essendon) Over 9.5 Disposals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Isaac Kako is primed to shine in the upcoming clash at Marvel Stadium. With a five-game average of 14.4 disposals on home turf, his recent form boasts consistency and impact. Standing against St Kilda, a team he's averaged 12 disposals against in their last encounters, Isaac has shown he can step up in crucial matchups. His ability to find space and move the ball efficiently, with a 72.3% disposal efficiency at home, sets him apart as a key playmaker for Essendon. Despite some turnover woes, averaging 1.8 per game, his knack for intercepting and gaining meters, with 157.6 per game, showcases his all-around contribution. Isaac's recent performances, coupled with his historical success against St Kilda, make him a strong bet to surpass the 9.5 disposal mark.

Jye Caldwell (Essendon) Over 16.5 Disposals (-238)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Jye Caldwell. The Essendon gun has been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 17.8 disposals in his last five home games. With an impressive L5 average of 20 disposals against St Kilda, he's no stranger to dominating against them. Caldwell's been a possession magnet, especially at Marvel Stadium, where he's been splitting defenses with pinpoint kicks and precise handballs. His recent form shows he's a reliable ball carrier, racking up an average of 216.6 meters gained per game. Facing St Kilda at home, Caldwell's got the stage set to showcase his elite playmaking skills. Backing Jye Caldwell to snag over 16.5 disposals seems like a no-brainer, given his recent performances and historical success against the Saints.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
3
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
05 Jul 26 Total Points Under 176.5 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 Total Points Under 177.5 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 Total Points Under 179.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for St Kilda Saints vs Essendon Bombers in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 5 July 2026 at Marvel Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 7 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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