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Model picks & player props
St Kilda Saints
VS
Essendon Bombers

St Kilda Saints vs Essendon Bombers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 4:19PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sun 5 Jul 2026, 5:15AM
20
Game markets graded
7
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Under 179.5 (Total Points)
The model graded 27 markets for St Kilda Saints vs Essendon Bombers (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $186 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 69.8%, fair odds 1.43, book price -116, model edge +16.0%. Tip-off Sun 5 Jul 2026, 5:15AM at Marvel Stadium.
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Under 179.5 · $100 returned $187

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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Points
Under
176.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Saints

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Bombers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For St Kilda Saints vs Essendon Bombers: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Mason Redman Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nate Caddy Essendon Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Darcy Parish Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Isaac Kako Essendon Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Isaac Kako Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers — what the model found

Our model graded 27 betting markets for St Kilda Saints at Essendon Bombers — 20 on the game itself and 7 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
7
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 27 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 26 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers — model preview

Latest AFL betting preview: Essendon Bombers vs St Kilda Saints. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Isaac Kako. Keywords: AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Essendon Bombers vs St Kilda Saints stats and odds.

Isaac Kako (Essendon) Over 10.5 Disposals (-156)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Isaac Kako, the midfield maestro for Essendon, is poised to shine in this upcoming clash against St Kilda at Marvel Stadium. Over his last five home games, Kako has been a disposal machine, averaging a stellar 14.4 possessions per game. His ability to find space and impact the contest is highlighted by his impressive average of 6.2 kicks and 8.2 handballs. Not only does he rack up the touches, but he does so efficiently, boasting a solid 72.3% disposal efficiency rate. Against St Kilda specifically, he has averaged 12 disposals in their previous encounters, suggesting he thrives in this matchup. With a model prediction of 13.2 disposals and a strong historical hit rate, backing Kako to surpass 10.5 disposals is a smart move for any footy punter looking to snag a win on this Sunday showdown.

🔒 The other 3 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
3
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
05 Jul 26 Total Points Under 176.5 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 Total Points Under 177.5 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 Total Points Under 179.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for St Kilda Saints vs Essendon Bombers in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Saints vs Bombers, or as Bombers vs Saints. The most recent game between them was Sunday 5 July 2026 at Marvel Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 7 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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