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The latest Bet Better model pick for Angus Clarke is Over 10.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 89%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +3.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 30, 4:29AM UTC
AFL

Angus Clarke

Essendon

+3.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 10.5 -588 (1.17)
+3.5% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Essendon Bombers
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 2 Aug, 6:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
89.0%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+3.5%
Predicted Value
16.6 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals89.0%—85.5%1.12+3.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Angus Clarke (Essendon) Over 10.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Angus Clarke is set to light up Marvel Stadium when the Essendon Bombers clash with the Adelaide Crows. His recent form screams domination, averaging 16.8 disposals in his last five home games. With silky smooth kicks at 11.2 per game and a knack for gaining crucial 335.2 meters, Clarke is a midfield maestro hungry for possessions. Add in his reliable contested possessions at 3.6 and impressive intercepts at 2.6, and you've got a player oozing confidence. Clarke's current hit streak of 2 and an 87.5% hit rate over his last 8 games suggest he's in the zone. The model predicting 16.6 disposals, along with an implied probability of 85.5%, makes the Over 10.5 disposals bet on Clarke a tantalizing prospect for footy punters.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 7 of last 10(70%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs Adelaide CrowsO 13.5 -164+11.2% edge
60%hit L10 O 13.5
17avg disposals L5
Home16.8
O 11.570%
O 12.570%
O 13.560%
O 14.550%
O 15.550%
O 16.550%

Angus Clarke has gone over 13.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 17 disposals). Current line: Over 13.5 at -164, model edge +11.2%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
25 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 13.5 Over -159 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 12.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 11.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
19 Jul 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending
19 Jul 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Angus Clarke (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Angus Clarke is Over 10.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.5% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Essendon Bombers on Sunday 2 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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