Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Model picks & player props
North Melbourne Kangaroos
VS
Essendon Bombers

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Essendon Bombers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 24, 3:04AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sat 28 Mar 2026, 8:35AM
4
Game Picks
11
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Essendon Bombers 12.5 (Spread)
For North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Essendon Bombers (AFL), model win probability 69.8%, fair odds 1.43, book price -112, model edge +16.9%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 28 Mar 2026, 8:35AM at Marvel Stadium.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Essendon Bombers
12.5
+ 3 more markets
Unlock with Pro
🔒

Unlock every graded pick for this game

See the full board for this matchup — every market, every line, every edge — plus every pick across the slate.

Bet Better Unlock all game picks
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Essendon BombersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Essendon BombersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Unlock the full calibrated board

See the model's calibrated probability, fair odds and edge on every market in this matchup.

Bet Better Unlock calibrated edges
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Kangaroos

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Bombers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Essendon Bombers: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Brayden Fiorini Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jye Caldwell Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Colby McKercher North Melbourne Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Xavier Duursma Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Andrew McGrath Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

Unlock every player prop for this game

Get the player, the line, the pick and the edge on every graded prop in this matchup.

Bet Better Unlock player props
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Essendon Bombers — model preview

<p>Deep dive into Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Jack Darling. Check out AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos stats and odds.</p>

Jack Darling (North Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (-323)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal in the upcoming clash between Essendon and North Melbourne, Jack Darling stands out as a prime candidate. Over his last five away games, Darling has been a consistent scoring threat, averaging 1.6 goals per game with an impressive 72.0% goal accuracy. His involvement in the attacking plays is evident, averaging 4.2 score involvements and 2.2 shots on goal per game. Facing off against Essendon, Darling has maintained a solid average of 1.3 goals in their recent encounters. With his current form and track record against Essendon, Darling seems poised to hit the scoreboard and clear the 0.5 goal line set by the bookmakers. Betting on Darling to notch a goal could be a smart play given his recent performances and historical success against Essendon.

Andrew McGrath (Essendon) Over 19.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to shine in the disposals department, Andrew McGrath stands out like a beacon of consistency. With a stellar average of 25.6 disposals over his last five home games, McGrath has been a midfield maestro for the Essendon Bombers. His recent form includes picking apart defenses with precision handballs and booming kicks, clocking an impressive 81.2% disposal efficiency. Facing North Melbourne, a team he's averaged 22.8 disposals against in their last encounters, McGrath is poised to dominate once again. With a current hit streak of 7 at home and a flawless 10/10 hit rate overall, McGrath is a prime candidate to go over the 19.5 disposal line this weekend at Marvel Stadium. Bet confidently on McGrath to lead the charge in the midfield battle.

Xavier Duursma (Essendon) Over 12.5 Disposals (-400)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player in the disposals market, Xavier Duursma is the man to watch. Playing at home against North Melbourne, Xavier has been on a tear lately. In his last five home games, he's been a disposal machine, averaging a solid 18.2 possessions per game. What's even more impressive is his consistency, boasting a superb disposal efficiency of 80.2%. Against North Melbourne specifically, he's been even more prolific, averaging a whopping 25 disposals per game in their last five encounters. With a current hit streak of 5 at home and a stellar overall hit rate of 9/10, Xavier Duursma is primed to surpass the 12.5 disposal line set by sportsbet. So, if you're looking to snag a winning bet, backing Xavier to go over 12.5 disposals is a smart play for this matchup at Marvel Stadium.

Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 21.5 Disposals (-208)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to hitting the Over on player disposals, Archie Roberts is the man to back. Playing at Marvel Stadium with the Essendon faithful behind him, Archie has been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 23.6 disposals in his last five home games. His recent form against North Melbourne has been particularly impressive, with an average of 26 disposals in their past encounters. With a current hit streak of 3 at home and a stellar overall hit rate of 5 out of 6, Archie is in the zone. Add in his knack for contested possessions, efficient ball use, and knack for gaining meters, and it's clear why the model predicts him to exceed 21.5 disposals with confidence. Betting on Archie to dominate the possession count against the Kangaroos is a smart play for footy punters looking to snag a win.

Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 20.5 Disposals (-294)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Essendon's clash with North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, all eyes are on Archie Roberts to deliver another stellar performance on his home turf. Roberts has been a dominant force in recent games, boasting an impressive average of 23.6 disposals per match in his last five home appearances. His ability to find space and impact the game is evident in his 69.8% disposal efficiency and 26-metre gained average. Against North Melbourne specifically, Roberts has been even more prolific, averaging 26 disposals per game. With a current hit streak of 6 at home and an overall hit rate of 7/8, Roberts is in red-hot form. Backing him to surpass 20.5 disposals in this matchup is a smart bet, given his consistent output and undeniable impact on the field.

Sam Durham (Essendon) Over 19.5 Disposals (-233)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet in the AFL, it's all about finding the right mix of form and opportunity. In this weekend's clash at Marvel Stadium, Sam Durham of the Essendon Bombers stands out as a prime candidate to surpass the 19.5 disposals line against the North Melbourne Kangaroos. Durham has been a midfield dynamo in recent home games, averaging a solid 23.2 disposals with a knack for finding the footy in contested situations (13 per game). His impressive disposal efficiency of 66.2% at home indicates his ability to make those possessions count. Moreover, in his last five matchups against North Melbourne, Durham has exceeded the 19.5 disposal mark, showcasing his consistency against this opponent. With an overall hit rate of 12/16 and a current streak of 2, Durham is primed to continue his fine form and rack up the possessions once again on home turf. Betting on him to surpass 19.5 disposals seems like a smart play given his recent performances and history against the Kangaroos.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
2
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
28 Mar 26 Spread Essendon Bombers 12.5 ✓ HIT
28 Mar 26 Spread Essendon Bombers 13.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Essendon Bombers in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 28 March 2026 at Marvel Stadium. The model has generated 4 game picks and 11 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks