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The latest Bet Better model pick for Will Setterfield is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 91 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 91%, implied 88%, edge +3.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 5:20PM UTC
AFL

Will Setterfield

Essendon

+3.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -714 (1.14) · $100→$114
+3.5% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
91 in 100
Predicted
23.2 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 91.2% · the book's price implies 87.7% · gap +3.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals91.2%—87.7%1.10+3.5%

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AI Analysis

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Will Setterfield (Essendon) Over 16.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable ball-winning midfielders, Will Setterfield stands out as a consistent force for the Essendon Bombers. The stats don't lie – over his last five away games, Setterfield has been a disposal machine, averaging a solid 22 disposals. His ability to find the ball in traffic is highlighted by his 8.6 contested possessions on the road, making him a key figure in the Bombers' engine room. Facing the Geelong Cats, Setterfield's recent form of averaging 20 disposals against this opponent adds to the confidence in his ability to hit the over 16.5 mark. With an impressive 65.1% disposal efficiency and the recent trend of hitting over 16.5 disposals in 14 out of his last 15 away games, Setterfield is primed to continue his strong ball-winning ways. Betting on him to surpass 16.5 disposals seems like a solid wager for this upcoming clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Will Setterfield averaged 22.8 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.3 marks per game across 4 games in 2024.

22.8
Disposals
0.0
Goals
4.3
Marks
6.8
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (9 Jun 24 vs Carlton), Will Setterfield recorded 19 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
9 Jun 24Carlton19045
5 Apr 24Port Adelaide19027
23 Mar 24Sydney Swans29057
16 Mar 24Hawthorn24068
25 Aug 23Collingwood140110
13 May 23Brisbane Lions23064
7 May 23Port Adelaide16054
30 Apr 23Geelong Cats19021
25 Apr 23Collingwood22045
15 Apr 23Melbourne190310
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 16.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 17.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 18.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
02 Aug 26 Adelaide Crows @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Will Setterfield (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Will Setterfield is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.5% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 8 August at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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