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The latest Bet Better model pick for Will Setterfield is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 91%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +3.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:36PM UTC
AFL

Will Setterfield

Essendon

+3.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -714 (1.14) · $100→$114
+3.5% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
91.2%
Implied Probability
87.7%
Model Edge
+3.5%
Predicted Value
23.2 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals91.2%87.7%1.10+3.5%

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AI Analysis

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Will Setterfield (Essendon) Over 16.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable ball-winning midfielders, Will Setterfield stands out as a consistent force for the Essendon Bombers. The stats don't lie – over his last five away games, Setterfield has been a disposal machine, averaging a solid 22 disposals. His ability to find the ball in traffic is highlighted by his 8.6 contested possessions on the road, making him a key figure in the Bombers' engine room. Facing the Geelong Cats, Setterfield's recent form of averaging 20 disposals against this opponent adds to the confidence in his ability to hit the over 16.5 mark. With an impressive 65.1% disposal efficiency and the recent trend of hitting over 16.5 disposals in 14 out of his last 15 away games, Setterfield is primed to continue his strong ball-winning ways. Betting on him to surpass 16.5 disposals seems like a solid wager for this upcoming clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
20.4avg disposals recent
Season best29
Disposals last 10avg 20.4 · hi 29 · lo 14
19221916231424291919

Will Setterfield has a disposals high of 29 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 16.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 17.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 18.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending
02 Aug 26 Adelaide Crows @ Essendon Bombers Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Will Setterfield (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Will Setterfield is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.5% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 8 August at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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