Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Peter Wright is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 84%, versus the book's implied 76%, for a model edge of +8.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:03PM UTC
AFL

Peter Wright

Essendon

+8.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -323 (1.31)
+8.0% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
84.4%
Implied Probability
76.3%
Model Edge
+8.0%
Predicted Value
1.3 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals84.4%76.3%1.19+8.0%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games7/10

See the full 20-game form curve

Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Peter Wright (Essendon) Over 0.5 Goals (-323)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Peter Wright and his goal-scoring prowess for Essendon. Heading into the clash against Gold Coast, Wright has been on the rise, bagging an average of 0.4 goals per game in his last five away matches. With an impressive 66.7% goal accuracy overall, he's been a reliable target inside 50, averaging 1.4 marks in his recent outings. Considering his recent form and the fact that he's hit the back of the net in three out of his last three games, the odds are in our favor for Wright to snag at least one major against the Suns. Facing a Gold Coast side where he has averaged 0.3 goals in his previous five encounters, Wright is poised to split the middle and help us cash in on the Over 0.5 goals player prop market. Trust in Wright to deliver the goods in this Saturday showdown at People First Stadium.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.8avg goals L5
Home0.8vs GWS GIANTS1.4Season best4
O 0.580%
O 1.540%
O 2.520%
Game log vs line (O 1.5)avg 1.1 · hi 4 · lo 0
0401022200

Peter Wright has gone over 1.5 goals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.8 goals, best 4).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Goals 0.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
05 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Western Bulldogs Goals 0.5 Over -417 ✗ MISS

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Peter Wright (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Peter Wright is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.0% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Gold Coast Suns on Saturday 18 April at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks