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Model picks & player props
Gold Coast Suns
VS
Essendon Bombers

Gold Coast Suns vs Essendon Bombers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 10:14PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

AFL
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sat 5 Jul 2025, 2:35AM
11
Game markets graded
14
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Essendon Bombers 19.5 Spread -111

The model graded 25 markets for Gold Coast Suns vs Essendon Bombers (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $190 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 5 Jul 2025, 2:35AM at Marvel Stadium.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win59.7%
The price says52.6%
Best price-111
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Essendon Bombers 19.5 Lean60% chance -111
Total Points Lean55% chance
Spread Lean54% chance
Total Points Lean54% chance
Disposals × 6 props Highup to 97%
Goals × 8 props Highup to 92%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Essendon Bombers
+22.5
+ 10 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Essendon BombersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Essendon BombersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Suns

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Bombers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Gold Coast Suns vs Essendon Bombers: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Sam Flanders Gold Coast SUNS Disposals
Ben Long Gold Coast SUNS Goals
Sam Durham Essendon Disposals
Darcy Parish Essendon Disposals
Ethan Read Gold Coast SUNS Goals

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Gold Coast Suns @ Essendon Bombers — what the model found

Our model graded 25 betting markets for Gold Coast Suns at Essendon Bombers — 11 on the game itself and 14 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

11
Game markets graded
14
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 25 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 24 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Gold Coast Suns vs Essendon Bombers — recent results

Essendon Bombers have won 0 of their last 0 games; Gold Coast Suns have won 2 of their last 5.

Gold Coast Suns — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W103–80STKAway
L53–95BLAway
W79–77GWSAway
L105–114MELBHome
L97–110CARLAway

Gold Coast Suns @ Essendon Bombers — model preview

Unlock potential winning bets for Essendon Bombers playing Gold Coast Suns. Includes analysis on key players like Noah Anderson. Analysis includes AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Essendon Bombers vs Gold Coast Suns stats and odds.

Essendon Bombers vs Gold Coast Suns : Essendon Bombers 19.5 (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The bet on Essendon Bombers +19.5 is supported by the Gold Coast Suns' recent struggles in defense, conceding an average of 72.6 points in their last five away games. Essendon's ability to generate scoring opportunities, averaging 47.6 inside 50s per game at home, could exploit this weakness. Despite Essendon's lower recent overall scoring average, they have the potential to capitalize on the Suns' defensive vulnerabilities. Additionally, the historical average margin of -8.4 for Gold Coast in their away games suggests they may not secure a significant victory margin. Considering these factors, the +19.5 spread provides a buffer for Essendon to keep the game competitive or potentially pull off an upset.

🔒 The other 4 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Gold Coast Suns vs Essendon Bombers in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Suns vs Bombers, or as Bombers vs Suns. The most recent game between them was Saturday 5 July 2025 at Marvel Stadium. The model has generated 11 game picks and 14 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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