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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jacob Farrow is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 76%, versus the book's implied 75%, for a model edge of +0.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 25, 4:21AM UTC
AFL

Jacob Farrow

Essendon

+0.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -303 (1.33)
+0.8% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 25 Jul, 6:15AM
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Model Probability
76.0%
Implied Probability
75.2%
Model Edge
+0.8%
Predicted Value
19.0 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals76.0%—75.2%1.32+0.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Jacob Farrow (Essendon) Over 15.5 Disposals (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jacob Farrow, the Essendon Bombers' midfield maestro, is poised to shine under the Melbourne lights at the MCG. With a recent average of 19 disposals per away game, Farrow's ability to find the footy is undeniable. His slick 83.9% disposal efficiency and knack for gaining crucial metres make him a linchpin in Essendon's game plan. Facing the Hawthorn Hawks, a team he's historically performed well against, Farrow's recent form indicates he's primed to surpass the 15.5 disposal line. In his last 5 away games, he's met or exceeded this mark in 4 outings, showcasing consistency and reliability. Backed by his stellar 8/9 hit rate in recent games, Farrow is a solid bet to snag the over in disposals. Expect him to weave through traffic, link up play, and deliver a performance befitting a top-tier midfielder.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs HawthornO 15.5 -303+0.8% edge
80%hit L10 O 15.5
20.2avg disposals L5
Away19
O 13.580%
O 14.580%
O 15.580%
O 16.580%
O 17.560%
O 18.540%

Jacob Farrow has gone over 15.5 disposals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 20.2 disposals). Current line: Over 15.5 at -303, model edge +0.8%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jacob Farrow (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jacob Farrow is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.8% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 25 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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