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The latest Bet Better model pick for Archie Roberts is Over 21.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 95%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +6.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 22, 5:14PM UTC
AFL

Archie Roberts

Essendon

+6.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 21.5 -769 (1.13)
+6.7% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 25 Jul, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
95.2%
Implied Probability
88.5%
Model Edge
+6.7%
Predicted Value
29.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals95.2%—88.5%1.05+6.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 21.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Archie Roberts hitting the Over 21.5 disposals mark against Hawthorn, the numbers paint a promising picture. In his last five away games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging a hefty 28.2 disposals. Facing Hawthorn in recent matchups has seen him notch up 19 disposals, hinting at his comfort level against this opponent. Roberts' recent form is undeniable, with an impressive 77.9% disposal efficiency and an average of 19.6 kicks per game. With his knack for generating 510 metres gained on average, he's a driving force in Essendon's midfield. Riding a hot streak with 9 hits in his last 10 away games, Roberts looks primed to continue his stellar performances, making the Over 21.5 disposals bet a tantalizing prospect for this clash at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 6 of last 10(60%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs HawthornO 26.5 -156+13.3% edge
70%hit L10 O 26.5
23avg disposals L5
Away28.2vs Hawthorn19.5Season best28
O 24.570%
O 25.570%
O 26.570%
O 27.550%
O 28.550%
O 29.550%
Game log vs line (O 26.5)1 / 4 hit
18162528

Archie Roberts has gone over 26.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 23 disposals, best 28). Current line: Over 26.5 at -156, model edge +13.3%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Jul 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 26.5 Over -172 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 25.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 24.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending
19 Jul 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending
12 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Archie Roberts (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Archie Roberts is Over 21.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.7% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 25 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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