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The latest Bet Better model pick for Archie Roberts is Over 26.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 63%, for a model edge of +11.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:05PM UTC
AFL

Archie Roberts

Essendon

+11.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 26.5 -172 (1.58)
+11.0% Edge
Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Essendon Bombers
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 6:40AM
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Model Probability
74.3%
Implied Probability
63.3%
Model Edge
+11.0%
Predicted Value
29.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.3%—63.3%1.35+11.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 26.5 Disposals (-172)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Archie Roberts is primed to shine for the Essendon Bombers as they clash with the Greater Western Sydney Giants at Marvel Stadium. In his last five home games, Archie has been a midfield maestro, averaging a stellar 32.6 disposals per match, well above the 26.5 line set by sportsbet. His ability to find space with 23.4 kicks and cover ground with 541 metres gained showcases his influence on the game. With a high disposalefficiency of 79.3% and 6 intercepts on average, Archie is not just accumulating possessions but doing so effectively. Against the Giants, he has elevated his game, averaging 29.5 disposals in their previous encounters. Look for Archie to dominate the midfield and comfortably surpass the 26.5 disposals mark, making him a solid bet for this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 6 of last 10(60%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
70%hit L10 O 24.5
24.2avg disposals L5
Home32.6vs GWS GIANTS29.5Season best28
O 22.580%
O 23.570%
O 24.570%
O 25.570%
O 26.570%
O 27.560%
Game log vs line (O 24.5)avg 21.8 · hi 28 · lo 16
18162528

Archie Roberts has gone over 24.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 24.2 disposals, best 28).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Jul 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 26.5 Over -172 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 25.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 24.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending
19 Jul 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending
12 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Archie Roberts (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Archie Roberts is Over 26.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.0% on this pick. Their next game is Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Essendon Bombers on Sunday 19 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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