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The latest Bet Better model pick for Archie Roberts is Over 20.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 97%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +8.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 7:33PM UTC
AFL

Archie Roberts

Essendon

+8.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 20.5 -769 (1.13) · $100→$113
+8.4% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
96.9%
Implied Probability
88.5%
Model Edge
+8.4%
Predicted Value
29.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals96.9%—88.5%1.03+8.4%

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AI Analysis

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Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 20.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Archie Roberts hitting the Over 20.5 disposals mark against the Cats, the numbers paint a compelling picture. In his last five away games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 24 disposals. Facing Geelong, he's even more potent, averaging 33 disposals in their last encounters. Roberts' recent form is red-hot, boasting a 79.8% disposal efficiency and gaining an impressive 446.2 meters on average per game. With his current hit streak and consistency, backing Roberts to eclipse 20.5 disposals feels like a smart play. Expect him to be a pivotal figure in Essendon's midfield battle at GMHBA Stadium, racking up possessions like a seasoned pro.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Archie Roberts averaged 21.8 disposals, 0.3 goals and 5.3 marks per game across 4 games in 2024.

21.8
Disposals
0.3
Goals
5.3
Marks
3.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Archie Roberts recorded 28 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Brisbane Lions28063
16 Aug 24Sydney Swans25063
10 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS16142
4 Aug 24Fremantle18054
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
02 Aug 26 Adelaide Crows @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 25.5 Over -159 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Adelaide Crows @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 24.5 Over -217 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Adelaide Crows @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 22.5 Over -435 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Archie Roberts (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Archie Roberts is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.4% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 8 August at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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