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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mason Redman is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 83%, versus the book's implied 82%, for a model edge of +1.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 22, 6:44PM UTC
AFL

Mason Redman

Essendon

+1.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -455 (1.22)
+1.5% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 25 Jul, 6:15AM
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Model Probability
83.5%
Implied Probability
82.0%
Model Edge
+1.5%
Predicted Value
20.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals83.5%—82.0%1.20+1.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games2/10

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AI Analysis

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Mason Redman (Essendon) Over 15.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Mason Redman hitting the Over 15.5 disposals mark against Hawthorn, the numbers paint a picture of a player in his prime. Over his last five away games, Redman has been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 23.2 disposals, comfortably surpassing the 15.5 line. His ability to find space and create opportunities is evident in his 81.6% disposal efficiency and 428.4 metres gained average. Against Hawthorn specifically, he's even more prolific, averaging 20 disposals in their recent encounters. With his current form and matchup history, Redman is poised to continue his disposal dominance at the MCG. So, expect him to weave his magic through traffic and rack up the possessions, making the Over 15.5 disposals a smart bet to snag a win.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs HawthornO 17.5 -222+2.6% edge
50%hit L10 O 17.5
20.6avg disposals L5
Away23.2vs Hawthorn23.6Season best27
O 15.560%
O 16.560%
O 17.550%
O 18.530%
O 19.530%
O 20.530%
Game log vs line (O 17.5)8 / 10 hit
22121920241627271922

Mason Redman has gone over 17.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 20.6 disposals, best 27). Current line: Over 17.5 at -222, model edge +2.6%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 23.5 Under -118 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 17.5 Over -222 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 16.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Mason Redman (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mason Redman is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.5% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 25 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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