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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mason Redman is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 88%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +0.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 11:14PM UTC
AFL

Mason Redman

Essendon

+0.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -714 (1.14) · $100→$114
+0.3% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
88.0%
Implied Probability
87.7%
Model Edge
+0.3%
Predicted Value
20.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals88.0%—87.7%1.14+0.3%

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AI Analysis

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Mason Redman (Essendon) Over 14.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Mason Redman is poised to make waves in the upcoming clash against Geelong. His recent form on the road has been nothing short of spectacular, averaging a whopping 23.4 disposals per game in his last five away matches. With a keen eye for intercepts (4.6 avg) and precise disposals (81.8% efficiency), Redman is a key link in Essendon's midfield chain. Facing the Cats, Redman has historically upped his game, averaging 18 disposals per encounter. Added to his overall hit streak of seven games, including a flawless six on the road, Redman's consistency is a reliable bet. The odds favor him surpassing the 14.5 disposals line, making him a compelling option to snag your wager. Expect Redman to make his mark and rack up the possessions as the Bombers take on Geelong.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Season averages (2024)

Mason Redman averaged 21.1 disposals, 0.1 goals and 6.0 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

21.1
Disposals
0.1
Goals
6.0
Marks
1.7
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Mason Redman recorded 22 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Brisbane Lions22092
16 Aug 24Sydney Swans19054
10 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS27090
4 Aug 24Fremantle27080
27 Jul 24St Kilda16061
19 Jul 24Adelaide Crows24151
13 Jul 24Melbourne20074
5 Jul 24Collingwood19060
29 Jun 24Geelong Cats12054
23 Jun 24West Coast Eagles220102
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 14.5 Over -714 ✗ MISS
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 15.5 Over -455 ✗ MISS
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 16.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
02 Aug 26 Adelaide Crows @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Mason Redman (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mason Redman is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.3% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 8 August at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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