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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mason Redman is Under 23.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 70%, versus the book's implied 54%, for a model edge of +16.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:04PM UTC
AFL

Mason Redman

Essendon

+16.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 23.5 -118 (1.85)
+16.2% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 5 Jul, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
70.3%
Implied Probability
54.1%
Model Edge
+16.2%
Predicted Value
20.8 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.3%—54.1%1.42+16.2%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Mason Redman (Essendon) Under 23.5 Disposals (-118)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Mason Redman's recent form, it's clear he's been a key player for the Essendon Bombers. However, facing the St Kilda Saints at Marvel Stadium, Redman's L5 average of 23.8 disposals is just above the bookmaker's line of 23.5. While he's shown consistency with an 87.6% disposalefficiency, the Saints pose a challenge with their ability to disrupt play. With Redman averaging 17.6 kicks and 6.2 handballs in his L5 home games, he may find it tough to hit his disposal average against a strong St Kilda midfield. The data suggests that Redman could fall just short of the 23.5 disposals mark in this matchup, making the Under a smart play for this game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
19.6avg disposals L5
Home20.2vs GWS GIANTS21.6Season best27
O 17.560%
O 18.540%
O 19.540%
O 20.540%
O 21.540%
O 22.540%
Game log vs line (O 19.5)avg 20.8 · hi 27 · lo 12
22121920241627271922

Mason Redman has gone over 19.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 19.6 disposals, best 27).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 23.5 Under -118 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 17.5 Over -222 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 16.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Mason Redman (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mason Redman is Under 23.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.2% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Essendon Bombers on Sunday 5 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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