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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Nate Caddy is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 95%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +6.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:04PM UTC
AFL

Nate Caddy

Essendon

+6.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -769 (1.13)
+6.1% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sun 12 Jul, 6:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
94.6%
Implied Probability
88.5%
Model Edge
+6.1%
Predicted Value
1.8 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals94.6%88.5%1.06+6.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Nate Caddy (Essendon) Over 0.5 Goals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk about Nate Caddy. The Essendon sharpshooter is on fire, bagging an average of 1.8 goals in his last five away games. With a stellar 100% hit rate in his recent clashes against the Brisbane Lions, Caddy's scoring prowess is undeniable. His goal accuracy sits at a respectable 49.3%, making him a real threat inside 50. In his last five away games, he's been a key playmaker with 5.6 score involvements per match. With an average of 3.8 shots at goal, Caddy isn't afraid to pull the trigger when the opportunity arises. Considering his consistent form and impressive track record against Brisbane, backing Caddy to snag at least one goal in this showdown looks like a smart play. Bet on Caddy to split the middle and secure those crucial goals for the Bombers.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
80%hit L10 O 1.5
1.8avg goals L5
Home2.4vs GWS GIANTS2Season best3
O 0.5100%
O 1.580%
O 2.520%
Game log vs line (O 1.5)avg 0.9 · hi 3 · lo 0
0210201300

Nate Caddy has gone over 1.5 goals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.8 goals, best 3).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions Goals 0.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers Goals 1.5 Over -185 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Goals 1.5 Over -147 ✗ MISS
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Goals Pending
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Goals Pending
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Goals Pending

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About This Player

Nate Caddy (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nate Caddy is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.1% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions on Sunday 12 July at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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