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AFL

Nate Caddy

Essendon

Value call

Nate Caddy (Essendon) has one live pick today: over 0.5 goals that pays $112 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
95 in 100
Predicted
1.8 goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 94.6% · the book's price implies 89.3% · gap +5.3%.

Latest Model PickFree
Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 4:35 PM AEST
Nate Caddy
over 0.5 goals
Goals Over 0.5 -833 (1.12) · $100→$112
Value call
HIGHWins about 95 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$11.20 Odds-833
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Nate Caddy is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 95 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 95%, the price says 89%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 10, 7:02PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals94.6%—89.3%1.06+5.3%

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AI Analysis

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Nate Caddy (Essendon) Over 0.5 Goals (-833)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Nate Caddy is on fire coming into this clash against Geelong. In his last five away games, he's been a scoring machine, averaging a solid two goals per game. With an impressive 56.3% goal accuracy, he's been lethal inside 50. His recent form also shows his involvement in creating scoring opportunities, with an average of 5.8 score involvements per game. Caddy's consistency is undeniable, hitting the scoreboard in his last 11 away games, boasting a perfect hit rate. Facing Geelong, a team where he's averaged a goal per game against lately, the stage is set for Caddy to snag another goal and continue his scoring streak. With odds in our favor, betting on Caddy to score over 0.5 goals seems like a safe play with a high likelihood of cashing in.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 9 of last 10(90%)

Season averages (2024)

Nate Caddy averaged 10.9 disposals, 0.9 goals and 4.0 marks per game across 10 games in 2024.

10.9
Disposals
0.9
Goals
4.0
Marks
1.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Nate Caddy recorded 11 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Brisbane Lions11042
16 Aug 24Sydney Swans11040
10 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS15362
4 Aug 24Fremantle9151
27 Jul 24St Kilda9031
19 Jul 24Adelaide Crows11232
13 Jul 24Melbourne10051
5 Jul 24Collingwood12162
23 Jun 24West Coast Eagles11220
25 May 24Richmond10023
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -833 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 0.5 Over -667 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions Goals 0.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers Goals — — — Pending
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Goals — — — Pending
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Nate Caddy (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nate Caddy is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.3% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 8 August at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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