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Model picks & player props
Essendon Bombers
VS
Melbourne Demons

Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sat 13 Jun 2026, 3:15AM
20
Game Picks
11
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Essendon Bombers 29.5 (Spread)
For Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons (AFL), model win probability 64.8%, fair odds 1.54, book price -110, model edge +12.4%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 13 Jun 2026, 3:15AM at MCG.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Essendon Bombers
29.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Essendon BombersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Essendon BombersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Essendon BombersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Essendon BombersHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Bombers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Demons

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Kysaiah Pickett Melbourne Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Max Gawn Melbourne Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jake Melksham Melbourne Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Archie Roberts Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nate Caddy Essendon Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons — model preview

<p>Winning bets for Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Mason Redman. Explore AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers stats and odds.</p>

Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers : Over 158.5 Total Points (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When Melbourne Demons clash with Essendon Bombers at the iconic MCG, the stage is set for a high-scoring affair. The Demons, averaging 97.6 points in their last five home games, are a scoring machine at the 'G. Essendon, despite a slightly lower away average of 73.2 points, has been facing teams with tighter defenses. With the Bombers' recent form improving and the Demons' attacking prowess on home turf, expect a fireworks display. Melbourne's average of 90 points against stronger sides and Essendon's ability to score on the road suggest a total points bonanza. The Over 158.5 bet looks tantalizing, backed by solid recent scoring trends and the potential for both teams to kick through the big sticks with flair.

Mason Redman (Essendon) Over 17.5 Disposals (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Mason Redman. This Essendon Bombers' backman is set to make waves at the MCG against the Melbourne Demons. Redman's recent form is firing on all cylinders, averaging a solid 19.6 disposals over his last five away games. What's more, he's been a defensive rock, averaging 2.8 intercepts per game, showcasing his ability to read the game and disrupt the opposition's flow. Facing Melbourne, Redman has historically performed well, averaging 18.3 disposals in their last five encounters. With a line set at 17.5, Redman's consistent ball-winning prowess and knack for finding the footy make him a prime candidate to surpass this mark. Couple that with his impressive disposal efficiency of 82.5% and the stage is set for Redman to snag a goal and dominate the possession count. Lock in the Over with confidence on this reliable defender turned playmaker.

Mason Redman (Essendon) Over 16.5 Disposals (-323)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Mason Redman is primed to shine in the upcoming Essendon Bombers clash against the Melbourne Demons. With his recent form boasting an average of 19.6 disposals over the last five away games, he's been a reliable contributor. Redman's ability to cover the ground is evident through his average of 407.4 meters gained, showcasing his impact on the field. Moreover, facing Melbourne hasn't fazed him, as he's averaged 18.3 disposals in their previous encounters. With a solid contested possessions average of 3 and a stellar disposal efficiency of 82.5%, Redman is set to make his mark. His current hit streak of 2 away games and an impressive hit rate of 13/14 further solidify his consistency. Betting on Redman to eclipse 16.5 disposals seems like a prudent move given his recent performances and historical data against Melbourne.

Jaxon Prior (Essendon) Over 13.5 Disposals (-270)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to pinpointing a player prop bet, Jaxon Prior stands out like a beacon in the night sky. His recent form is nothing short of stellar, with averages that could make even the most seasoned veterans blush. Over his last five away games, Prior has been a midfield dynamo, racking up an average of 18.8 disposals per game, well above the 13.5 line set for him in this clash against Melbourne. His ability to find the footy, coupled with a knack for maintaining a high disposal efficiency of 76.3%, sets him apart as a prime candidate to dominate the possession count. With a current hit streak of 5 away games and an overall hit rate of 3 out of 3, Prior is poised to shine brightly under the MCG lights. Betting on him to surpass 13.5 disposals is not just a hunch; it's a calculated move backed by a tidal wave of compelling data.

Mason Redman (Essendon) Over 15.5 Disposals (-500)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Mason Redman hitting the Over 15.5 disposals mark against Melbourne, the stats paint a compelling picture. Redman's recent away form has been solid, averaging 19.6 disposals in his last five games on the road. His ability to cover the ground efficiently is evident with an average of 407.4 meters gained per game. Against Melbourne specifically, he's been even more involved, averaging 18.3 disposals in their last encounters. With a current hit streak of 2 away games and an impressive 16 out of 17 hit rate in his recent away performances, Redman is in prime form to contribute significantly in this clash. Expect him to find plenty of the ball and play a crucial role in Essendon's midfield battle at the MCG.

Mason Redman (Essendon) Over 14.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking ahead to the clash between Melbourne and Essendon, Mason Redman emerges as a prime target for the Over 14.5 disposals prop bet. Redman's recent form on the road showcases a solid average of 19.6 disposals over the last five away games, with a knack for finding space and creating opportunities. His efficiency, hovering around 82.5%, ensures he maximizes possessions. In the last five encounters against Melbourne, Redman has maintained an impressive average of 18.3 disposals. With his current hit streak standing at 2 games away and a stellar away hit rate of 16/17, Redman is poised to build on his consistency and play a pivotal role in Essendon's midfield battles. Bet confidently on Redman to surpass the 14.5 disposals threshold and make an impact at the MCG.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
6
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
13 Jun 26 Total Points Over 158.5 ✗ MISS
13 Jun 26 Total Points Over 162.5 ✗ MISS
13 Jun 26 Spread Essendon Bombers 29.5 ✗ MISS
13 Jun 26 Spread Essendon Bombers 27.5 ✗ MISS
13 Jun 26 Spread Essendon Bombers 28.5 ✗ MISS
13 Jun 26 Head to Head Essendon Bombers ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 13 June 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 20 game picks and 11 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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