Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Model picks & player props
Essendon Bombers
VS
Melbourne Demons

Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 2:28PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sat 13 Jun 2026, 3:15AM
20
Game markets graded
11
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Essendon Bombers 29.5 (Spread)
The model graded 31 markets for Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $191 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 64.8%, fair odds 1.54, book price -110, model edge +12.4%. Tip-off Sat 13 Jun 2026, 3:15AM at MCG.
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Mason Redman Over 17.5 · $100 returned $145

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Essendon Bombers
+29.5
+ 19 more markets
Unlock with Pro
🔒

Unlock every graded pick for this game

See the full board for this matchup — every market, every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate.

Bet Better Unlock all game picks
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Essendon BombersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Essendon BombersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Essendon BombersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Essendon BombersHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

Bet Better Unlock calibrated edges
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Bombers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Demons

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Kysaiah Pickett Melbourne Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Max Gawn Melbourne Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jake Melksham Melbourne Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Archie Roberts Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nate Caddy Essendon Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

Unlock every player prop for this game

The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

Bet Better Unlock player props
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons — what the model found

Our model graded 31 betting markets for Essendon Bombers at Melbourne Demons — 20 on the game itself and 11 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
11
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 31 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 30 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
Unlock every pick
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons — model preview

Winning bets for Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Mason Redman. Explore AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers stats and odds.

Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers : Over 158.5 Total Points (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When Melbourne Demons clash with Essendon Bombers at the iconic MCG, the stage is set for a high-scoring affair. The Demons, averaging 97.6 points in their last five home games, are a scoring machine at the 'G. Essendon, despite a slightly lower away average of 73.2 points, has been facing teams with tighter defenses. With the Bombers' recent form improving and the Demons' attacking prowess on home turf, expect a fireworks display. Melbourne's average of 90 points against stronger sides and Essendon's ability to score on the road suggest a total points bonanza. The Over 158.5 bet looks tantalizing, backed by solid recent scoring trends and the potential for both teams to kick through the big sticks with flair.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
Unlock the full write-up
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
6
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
13 Jun 26 Total Points Over 158.5 ✗ MISS
13 Jun 26 Total Points Over 162.5 ✗ MISS
13 Jun 26 Spread Essendon Bombers +29.5 ✗ MISS
13 Jun 26 Spread Essendon Bombers +27.5 ✗ MISS
13 Jun 26 Spread Essendon Bombers +28.5 ✗ MISS
13 Jun 26 Moneyline Essendon Bombers ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Bombers vs Demons, or as Demons vs Bombers. The most recent game between them was Saturday 13 June 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 20 game picks and 11 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.