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Model picks & player props
Essendon Bombers
VS
Melbourne Demons

Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 2:08AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sat 13 Jun 2026, 3:15AM
12
Game markets graded
11
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Essendon Bombers 29.5 Spread -110

The model graded 23 markets for Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $191 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 13 Jun 2026, 3:15AM at MCG.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win64.8%
The price says52.4%
Best price-110
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Essendon Bombers 29.5 High65% chance -110
Spread High64% chance
Spread High63% chance
Total Points High61% chance
Moneyline Long-shot28% chance
Total Points Lean56% chance
Disposals × 7 props Highup to 94%
Goals × 4 props Highup to 95%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Mason Redman Over 17.5 · $100 returned $145

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Essendon Bombers
+29.5
+ 11 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Essendon BombersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Essendon BombersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Essendon BombersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Essendon BombersMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Bombers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Demons

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Kysaiah Pickett Melbourne Disposals
Max Gawn Melbourne Disposals
Jake Melksham Melbourne Goals
Archie Roberts Essendon Disposals
Nate Caddy Essendon Goals

+ 11 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons — what the model found

Our model graded 23 betting markets for Essendon Bombers at Melbourne Demons — 12 on the game itself and 11 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

12
Game markets graded
11
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 23 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 22 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons — model preview

Winning bets for Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Mason Redman. Explore AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers stats and odds.

Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers : Over 158.5 Total Points (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When Melbourne Demons clash with Essendon Bombers at the iconic MCG, the stage is set for a high-scoring affair. The Demons, averaging 97.6 points in their last five home games, are a scoring machine at the 'G. Essendon, despite a slightly lower away average of 73.2 points, has been facing teams with tighter defenses. With the Bombers' recent form improving and the Demons' attacking prowess on home turf, expect a fireworks display. Melbourne's average of 90 points against stronger sides and Essendon's ability to score on the road suggest a total points bonanza. The Over 158.5 bet looks tantalizing, backed by solid recent scoring trends and the potential for both teams to kick through the big sticks with flair.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Bombers vs Demons, or as Demons vs Bombers. The most recent game between them was Saturday 13 June 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 12 game picks and 11 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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