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The latest Bet Better model pick for Andrew McGrath is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 96%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +7.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:04PM UTC
AFL

Andrew McGrath

Essendon

+7.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -769 (1.13)
+7.1% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr, 3:15AM
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Model Probability
95.6%
Implied Probability
88.5%
Model Edge
+7.1%
Predicted Value
25.0 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals95.6%88.5%1.05+7.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Andrew McGrath (Essendon) Over 16.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Andrew McGrath's recent form, it's clear he's been a midfield maestro on the road, consistently racking up disposals. In his last five away games, he's been a ball magnet, averaging a whopping 22.8 disposals. Plus, his disposal efficiency sits at a solid 73.8%, showing he's not just getting the ball but using it effectively. Facing the Gold Coast Suns, who he's historically performed well against, McGrath's average disposals increase to 19.2. His ability to find space and create plays is evident in his 13.4 handballs and 9.4 kicks per away game. With a current hit streak of 8 on the road, McGrath is a reliable bet to surpass the 16.5 disposal mark against the Suns this weekend. Expect him to be in the thick of the action, driving Essendon forward with his precise ball movement.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 17.5
17.2avg disposals L5
Home17.8vs GWS GIANTS23.2Season best34
O 15.560%
O 16.560%
O 17.550%
O 18.550%
O 19.540%
O 20.530%
Game log vs line (O 17.5)avg 22.3 · hi 34 · lo 18
24181818231820212934

Andrew McGrath has gone over 17.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 17.2 disposals, best 34).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 16.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 17.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 18.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals Pending
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals Pending
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Andrew McGrath (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Andrew McGrath is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.1% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Gold Coast Suns on Saturday 18 April at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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