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The latest Bet Better model pick for Andrew McGrath is Under 20.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 70%, versus the book's implied 52%, for a model edge of +17.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 9:31PM UTC
AFL

Andrew McGrath

Essendon

+17.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 20.5 -110 (1.91) · $100→$191
+17.7% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
70.1%
Implied Probability
52.4%
Model Edge
+17.7%
Predicted Value
17.9 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.1%—52.4%1.43+17.7%

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AI Analysis

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Andrew McGrath (Essendon) Under 20.5 Disposals (-110)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Andrew McGrath is set to face the Geelong Cats at GMHBA Stadium, where the pressure will be on for the Essendon Bombers midfielder. Despite his recent averages, McGrath's L5 away games show a dip in disposals, hovering at 17.4 per game, below the bookmaker's line of 20.5. Facing the Cats, who have limited him to an average of 20.6 disposals in their previous encounters, McGrath's contested possessions and turnovers have been inconsistent lately. With a current hit streak of 0 in overall disposals, McGrath's form suggests he may struggle to hit the line. Betting under 20.5 disposals for McGrath could capitalize on these trends, offering solid value in this AFL matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Andrew McGrath averaged 22.8 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.7 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

22.8
Disposals
0.0
Goals
4.7
Marks
2.7
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Andrew McGrath recorded 34 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Brisbane Lions34030
16 Aug 24Sydney Swans290101
10 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS21012
4 Aug 24Fremantle20060
27 Jul 24St Kilda18071
19 Jul 24Adelaide Crows23025
13 Jul 24Melbourne18032
5 Jul 24Collingwood18061
29 Jun 24Geelong Cats18072
23 Jun 24West Coast Eagles24036
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 20.5 Under -110 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 20.5 Over -172 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 19.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Andrew McGrath (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Andrew McGrath is Under 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.7% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 8 August at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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