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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Isaac Kako is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 62%, for a model edge of +12.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 22, 1:53PM UTC
AFL

Isaac Kako

Essendon

+12.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -161 (1.62)
+12.0% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 5 Jul, 5:15AM
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Model Probability
73.8%
Implied Probability
61.7%
Model Edge
+12.0%
Predicted Value
1.0 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals73.8%61.7%1.36+12.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Isaac Kako (Essendon) Over 0.5 Goals (-161)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Isaac Kako to snag a goal in the upcoming Essendon Bombers vs St Kilda Saints clash, the numbers paint a promising picture. In his last five home games, Kako has been a consistent threat in front of the big sticks, averaging 1.2 goals per game. His sharp goal accuracy of 73.3% at home further solidifies his scoring prowess. With an average of 1.6 shots on goal per game, Kako isn't afraid to take his chances, and his 5.2 score involvements per game showcase his active role in Essendon's forward movements. Facing St Kilda, where he has previously averaged a goal per game at home, Kako's form and historical performance against this opponent suggest he's primed to continue his scoring streak. Considering Kako's recent form, scoring consistency, and historical success against St Kilda, betting on him to hit over 0.5 goals could prove to be a smart move in this anticipated matchup at Marvel Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
70%hit L10 O 9.5
8.6avg disposals L5
Away9.2vs Hawthorn14
O 9.570%
O 10.560%
O 11.540%
O 12.520%
O 13.510%
O 14.510%

Isaac Kako has gone over 9.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 8.6 disposals).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 0.5
0.4avg goals L5
Away0.8vs Hawthorn1
O 0.560%
O 1.520%

Isaac Kako has gone over 0.5 goals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.4 goals).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers Goals 0.5 Over -161 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 10.5 Over -161 ✗ MISS
05 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 9.5 Over -256 ✗ MISS
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals Pending
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals Pending
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Isaac Kako (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Isaac Kako is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.0% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Essendon Bombers on Sunday 5 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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