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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jade Gresham is Over 4.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 28 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 28%, implied 11%, edge +7.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 5:20PM UTC
AFL

Jade Gresham

Essendon

+7.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 4.5 +775 (8.75) · $100→$875
+7.7% Edge
Sydney Swans @ Essendon Bombers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 16 Aug, 6:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
19 in 100
Predicted
2.8 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 19.1% · the book's price implies 11.4% · gap +7.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks19.1%28.5%11.4%3.51+7.7%

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AI Analysis

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Jade Gresham (Essendon) Over 4.5 player_marks_over (+775)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking ahead to Sunday's clash between Essendon and Sydney at the MCG, all eyes are on Jade Gresham for a potential standout performance in the marks department. Over his last five matchups, Gresham has been a force to be reckoned with, averaging 2.2 marks overall and an impressive 3 marks against the Swans specifically. When playing at home, he's shown consistency with 1.8 marks per game, and his ability to impact the game inside 50 with an average of 0.4 marksinside50 at home cannot be overlooked. Facing off against the Swans, a team he's historically performed well against, Gresham is well-positioned to snag those crucial grabs and hit that Over 4.5 marks line. With his recent form and favorable matchups, Gresham looks primed to dominate in the air and provide a solid return for those backing him to excel in this facet of the game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Jade Gresham averaged 14.0 disposals, 0.9 goals and 2.5 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.

14.0
Disposals
0.9
Goals
2.5
Marks
2.1
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Jade Gresham recorded 13 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Brisbane Lions13130
16 Aug 24Sydney Swans11031
10 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS5035
4 Aug 24Fremantle10321
27 Jul 24St Kilda12034
19 Jul 24Adelaide Crows12212
13 Jul 24Melbourne15015
5 Jul 24Collingwood15171
29 Jun 24Geelong Cats13131
9 Jun 24Carlton18106
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
16 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ Essendon Bombers Goals 0.5 Over +140 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Jade Gresham (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jade Gresham is Over 4.5 on Marks. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.7% on this pick. Their next game is Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers on Sunday 16 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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