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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jade Gresham is Over 11.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 71%, for a model edge of +0.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:36PM UTC
AFL

Jade Gresham

Essendon

+0.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 11.5 -250 (1.40) · $100→$140
+0.4% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
71.8%
Implied Probability
71.4%
Model Edge
+0.4%
Predicted Value
14.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.8%—71.4%1.39+0.4%

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AI Analysis

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Jade Gresham (Essendon) Over 11.5 Disposals (-250)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jade Gresham is set to make waves in the upcoming clash against the Gold Coast Suns. With an impressive average of 15.6 disposals in his last five away games, Gresham has been a midfield dynamo, constantly delivering for the Essendon Bombers. His recent stats speak volumes: averaging 9.2 kicks, 6.4 handballs, and a solid disposal efficiency of 66.6%. Facing the Suns, a team he's historically performed well against, Gresham's average of 17.5 disposals against them in his last five away games makes the Over 11.5 disposals line look like a golden opportunity. With his form on the rise and a track record of consistency, backing Gresham to hit his disposal target is a smart play for footy punters looking to snag a win on this AFL showdown.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
12.4avg disposals recent
Season best26
Disposals last 10avg 12.4 · hi 18 · lo 5
1813151512121051113

Jade Gresham has a disposals high of 26 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.9avg goals recent
Season best3
Goals last 10avg 0.9 · hi 3 · lo 0
1110203001

Jade Gresham has a goals high of 3 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 11.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 10.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Jade Gresham (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jade Gresham is Over 11.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.4% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Gold Coast Suns on Saturday 18 April at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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