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AFL

Jade Gresham

Essendon

Value call

Jade Gresham (Essendon) has one live pick today: over 0.5 goals that pays $240 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
52 in 100
Predicted
0.7 goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 52.3% · before adjusting for past results 57.7% · the book's price implies 41.7% · gap +10.6%.

Latest Model PickFree
Sydney Swans @ Essendon Bombers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 16 Aug, 4:40 PM AEST
Jade Gresham
over 0.5 goals
Goals Over 0.5 +140 (2.40) · $100→$240
Value call
LEANWins about 52 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$24.00 Odds+140
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jade Gresham is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 52 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 52%, the price says 42%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 13, 2:16AM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals57.7%52.3%41.7%1.91+16.1%

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AI Analysis

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Jade Gresham (Essendon) Over 0.5 Goals (+140)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a crucial goal in the upcoming clash between Essendon and Sydney, Jade Gresham stands out as a prime candidate to light up the scoreboard. Despite his recent form showing just 0.4 goals per game, the stage is set for Gresham to elevate his performance. With an average of 1.4 shots on goal in his last five home games and a solid 15.0% goal accuracy, Gresham has been getting in the right positions to score. His involvement in the Bombers' attacking moves is evident, averaging 2.8 score involvements per game. Facing the Swans at the MCG, Gresham will be looking to capitalize on his opportunities and make an impact in front of the home crowd. Betting on Gresham to go over 0.5 goals is a smart play given his recent stats and the potential for an explosive performance.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Season averages (2024)

Jade Gresham averaged 14.0 disposals, 0.9 goals and 2.5 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.

14.0
Disposals
0.9
Goals
2.5
Marks
2.1
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Jade Gresham recorded 13 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Brisbane Lions13130
16 Aug 24Sydney Swans11031
10 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS5035
4 Aug 24Fremantle10321
27 Jul 24St Kilda12034
19 Jul 24Adelaide Crows12212
13 Jul 24Melbourne15015
5 Jul 24Collingwood15171
29 Jun 24Geelong Cats13131
9 Jun 24Carlton18106
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 11.5 Over -238 ✗ MISS
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 10.5 Over -357 ✗ MISS
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 11.5 Over -147 ✓ HIT
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jade Gresham (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jade Gresham is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.1% on this pick. Their next game is Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers on Sunday 16 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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