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Model picks & player props
Sydney Swans
VS
Essendon Bombers

Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 12, 3:43AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 6:40AM
0
Game markets graded
4
Props graded
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Player props & full board
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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Essendon Bombers on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Essendon Bombers
Exact move size 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Swans

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Bombers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Jade Gresham Essendon Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jade Gresham Essendon Marks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jade Gresham Essendon Fantasy 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jade Gresham Essendon Handballs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Sydney Swans @ Essendon Bombers — what the model found

Our model graded 4 betting markets for Sydney Swans at Essendon Bombers — 0 on the game itself and 4 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

4
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 4 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 3 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers — recent results

Essendon Bombers have won 0 of their last 0 games; Sydney Swans have won 3 of their last 5.

Sydney Swans — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W167–70PORTHome
W107–88STKAway
W139–88GWSAway
L71–87ADELHome
L83–126BLAway

Sydney Swans @ Essendon Bombers — where the money went

Since betting opened on Sydney Swans at Essendon Bombers, the market has moved away from Essendon Bombers across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Moneyline — Essendon Bombers▼ Money drifted off this
Moneyline — Sydney Swans▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

Sydney Swans @ Essendon Bombers — model preview

Essendon Bombers v Sydney Swans, 12 August 2026. Top of the list: Jade Gresham (Essendon) Over 1.5 player_marks_over. Our model likes one bet in this game.

On Wednesday 12 August 2026, Essendon Bombers play Sydney Swans in the AFL. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Jade Gresham (Essendon) Over 1.5 player_marks_over, priced at -270 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Jade Gresham (Essendon) Over 1.5 player_marks_over (-270)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to snagging crucial marks, Jade Gresham has been soaring lately, showing a real hunger for the contest. Looking at his last five home games, he's been averaging 1.8 marks per game, with 0.4 of those coming inside 50. Facing off against the Sydney Swans at the iconic MCG, Gresham has historically performed even better, averaging 3 marks per game against them. Overall, he's been solid, maintaining a 2.2 marks per game average across all recent matches. With Gresham's ability to read the play, take contested grabs, and lead into space, it's no surprise the model predicts him to hit 2.8 marks this game. The numbers don't lie – it's looking like Gresham is primed to surpass the 1.5 marks mark comfortably in this matchup.

That is how our model reads Essendon Bombers v Sydney Swans. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Swans vs Bombers, or as Bombers vs Swans. The next scheduled game is Sunday 16 August 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 4 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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