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Model picks & player props
Sydney Swans
VS
Essendon Bombers

Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 6, 6:45PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 6:40AM
2
Game markets graded
7
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 14.5 Team Total Points Q1 -122

The model graded 9 markets for Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $182 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 16 Aug 2026, 6:40AM at MCG.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win62.4%
The price says54.9%
Best price-122
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Team Total Points Q1 Over 14.5 High62% chance -122
Goals × 4 props Leanup to 59% —
Marks × 1 prop Long-shotup to 36% —
Fantasy × 1 prop Long-shotup to 27% —
Handballs × 1 prop Long-shotup to 28% —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every AFL game on today's board →

Sydney Swans and Essendon Bombers last met on Sun 16 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every AFL game priced right now.

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This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Over 14.5 · $100 returned $179

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Team Total Points Q1
Over
14.5
-122
+ 1 more market
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All 2 game markets and 7 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,592+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam Total Points Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Swans

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Bombers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Archer Day-Wicks Essendon Goals
Jade Gresham Essendon Goals
Jade Gresham Essendon Marks
Jake Lloyd Sydney Swans Goals
Isaac Kako Essendon Goals

+ 7 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Sydney Swans @ Essendon Bombers — what the model found

Our model graded 9 betting markets for Sydney Swans at Essendon Bombers — 2 on the game itself and 7 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded
7
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 9 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 8 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers — recent results

Essendon Bombers have won 0 of their last 0 games; Sydney Swans have won 5 of their last 5.

Sydney Swans — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W141–88BLHome
W123–70NMFCHome
W112–76ESSAway
W167–70PORTHome
W107–88STKAway

Sydney Swans @ Essendon Bombers — model preview

Essendon Bombers v Sydney Swans, 13 August 2026. Top of the list: Jade Gresham (Essendon) Over 1.5 player_marks_over. Our model likes one bet in this game.

On Thursday 13 August 2026, Essendon Bombers play Sydney Swans in the AFL. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Jade Gresham (Essendon) Over 1.5 player_marks_over, priced at -270 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Jade Gresham (Essendon) Over 1.5 player_marks_over (-270)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to aerial prowess, Jade Gresham is the man to watch in the upcoming clash between Essendon and Sydney. Over his last five home games, he's been a marking machine, averaging 1.8 marks per game and 0.4 marks inside 50. What's even more promising is his recent history against Sydney - in their last five encounters, he's been hauling in an impressive 3 marks per game. Overall, Gresham has been consistent, averaging 2.2 marks across all recent games. With such a strong track record, especially against the Swans, Gresham looks poised to soar above the 1.5 marks line set for him in this game. So, if you're looking for a reliable bet to snag some value, backing Gresham to go over 1.5 marks is a smart play for this Sunday showdown at the MCG.

That is how our model reads Essendon Bombers v Sydney Swans. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
1
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
16 Aug 26 Team Total Points Q1 Over 14.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Swans vs Bombers, or as Bombers vs Swans. The most recent game between them was Sunday 16 August 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 2 game picks and 7 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Playing fantasy? AFL fantasy projections for this round — the same model, scored your way.

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