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MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates

Model-graded picks, player props and the edge on every market — with the full result history below.

Every pick graded — see verified results
Next Game: vs Cleveland Guardians (Away) Fri 17 Jul, 11:10PM Progressive Field, Cleveland · Outdoor
Model updated Jul 17, 9:29AM UTC
Answer
The Pittsburgh Pirates model is leaning the over in the Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings market vs Cleveland Guardians.
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Today's Game Pick

Model edge
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings
Over 0.5
Odds: +112
Model prob: 64.2%
+17.0%
Free pick — today's headline game edge

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Calibrated Edge — Game Markets

Calibrated vs fair
MarketModel output
Total Runs - 1st 1 InningsProbability, fair odds & edge locked
Spread - 1st 5 InningsProbability, fair odds & edge locked
SpreadProbability, fair odds & edge locked
Moneyline - 1st 5 InningsProbability, fair odds & edge locked
MoneylineProbability, fair odds & edge locked
Total RunsProbability, fair odds & edge locked

Full model-edge table — 6 game markets for this team with exact probability, fair odds and edge — is ready for subscribers.

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Availability

Roster status
Updated 11 Jul 2026, 13:13 UTC · may be stale
1B
Spencer HorwitzOUTinjury
C
Endy RodriguezOUTinjury
CF
Oneil CruzOUTinjury
RP
Chris DevenskiOUTinjuryEvan SiskOUTinjuryWilber DotelOUTinjury
SS
Konnor GriffinOUTinjury

Weather & Venue Context

Conditions
Ballpark conditions (temperature, wind direction and roof state) can move MLB run totals, and matter most in open-air parks with strong prevailing winds.
Per-game ballpark weather is pending a file→table persistence job (owner). No live park weather is shown here until that data is in the database.

Model Performance History

All results →
0
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate
DateOpponentMarketPickResult

Betting angles

3 markets live
Run LineCleveland Guardians run line-2.5 +285+12.4% edge
+1.1proj. margin
L5 RF7.2L5 RA5.6Away L53-2ATS5-7

Pittsburgh Pirates spread vs Cleveland Guardians is live and a +12.4% model edge; proj. margin +1.1.

MoneylineCleveland Guardians favored (model)-123+9.7% edge
3-2L5 record
L5 RF7.2L5 RA5.6Away L53-2Win rec5-6

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline vs Cleveland Guardians is live and a +9.7% model edge; L5 record 3-2.

Total RunsGame total · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland GuardiansUnder 6.5 +148+6.9% edge
6.8proj. runs
L5 RF7.2L5 RA5.6Away L53-2O/U10-7

Pittsburgh Pirates total runs vs Cleveland Guardians is live with a model 47% read and a +6.9% model edge; proj. runs 6.8.

Team Total RunsPittsburgh Pirates team totalNo line posted
7.2L5 runs/gm
L5 RF7.2L5 RA5.6Away L53-2

Pittsburgh Pirates team total runs form: last five 3-2, 7.2 runs/gm.

Recent form (last 5 games)

Pittsburgh Pirates have gone 3-2 over their last 5 games, averaging 7.2 runs and 6.0 hits per game while allowing 5.6 earned runs.

3-2
Last 5
7.2
Runs / G
6.0
Hits / G
1.8
HR / G
5.2
RBI / G
5.6
ER Allowed / G
5.6
Ks / G

About This Team

Pittsburgh Pirates are tracked by the Bet Better model across MLB games. Their next game is against Cleveland Guardians on Friday 17 July at Progressive Field. Use the data above to inform your MLB betting decisions for Pittsburgh Pirates.