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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
Detroit Tigers

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:18AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Comerica Park, Detroit
Outdoor
Thu 19 Jun 2025, 5:10PM
20
Game Picks
4
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 11.5 (Total Runs)
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers (MLB), model win probability 33.1%, fair odds 3.02, book price +486, model edge +16.0%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 19 Jun 2025, 5:10PM at Comerica Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Runs
Over
11.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Spencer Horwitz 1BOut
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Evan Sisk RPOut
  • Chris Devenski RPOut

Probable pitcher

Braxton Ashcraft SP

Detroit Tigers

  • Kerry Carpenter RFDay-to-day
  • Javier Baez SSOut
  • Jackson Jobe SPOut
  • Casey Mize SPDay-to-day
  • Will Vest RPOut
  • Bailey Horn RPOut
  • Burch Smith RPOut
  • Justin Verlander SPOut
  • Wenceel Perez RFOut
  • Parker Meadows CFOut
  • Trey Sweeney SSOut
  • Brant Hurter RPOut
  • Reese Olson SPOut

Probable pitcher

Jack Flaherty SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 5:08AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Andrew Heaney PIT Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Tarik Skubal DET Pitcher - Hits Allowed 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Andrew Heaney PIT Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Zach McKinstry DET Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineDetroit TigersNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.8Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

Detroit Tigers moneyline form: last five 2-3, 2.6 runs/gm.

Run LineDetroit Tigers run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.8Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2ATS5-6

Detroit Tigers spread form: last five 2-3, 2.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

Detroit Tigers total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsDetroit Tigers team totalNo line posted
2.5implied team total
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.8Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

Detroit Tigers team total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.6 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Detroit Tigers are scoring 2.8 runs per game (3-2) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 4.2 (2-3); Detroit Tigers pitchers are allowing 1.2 earned runs per game versus 3.6 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

2.8
Detroit Tigers runs/G
4.2
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesDetroit TigersPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game2.84.2
Hits / game7.010.2
Home runs / game0.41.0
Walks drawn / game2.24.2
Batter K / game5.28.8
Earned runs allowed / game1.23.6
Pitching K / game5.45.6
Walks allowed / game1.42.4
L5 record3-22-3

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers — model preview

<p>Unlock potential winning baseball bets for Detroit Tigers playing Pittsburgh Pirates. Includes analysis on key players like Gleyber Torres. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates stats and odds.</p>

Gleyber Torres (DET) Over 0.5 Total Bases (-200)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Gleyber Torres for Over 0.5 in the Batter Total Bases market is a promising choice considering his consistent performance in recent games. His overall hits average in the last five games is 1.2, which indicates that he is likely to hit at least once in the upcoming game. Furthermore, his performance at home has been even better with an average of 2 hits per game. When playing against the Pirates, his average hits are 1 per game, with an additional 0.6 on average coming from doubles. Even though his current hit streak is zero, his past performance suggests a high probability of him scoring more than 0.5 total bases in the upcoming game. Therefore, the data supports the bet on Torres surpassing 0.5 total bases in the game versus the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Gleyber Torres (DET) Over 0.5 Hits (-189)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Gleyber Torres for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is a good choice based on his consistent performance. Torres has an average of 1.2 hits in his last five overall games and home games, which is well above the 0.5 line. His performance against the Pirates is also strong, with an average of 1 hit in the last five matchups. His plate appearances also suggest a high chance of hitting, with an average of 4.8 in overall and home games, and 4.4 against the Pirates. Despite his current hit streak being zero, his averages indicate a high probability of securing a hit in the upcoming game. Therefore, Torres' consistent hitting performance makes this bet a reliable choice.

Oneil Cruz (PIT) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-385)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The rationale for betting on Oneil Cruz for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is based on his recent performance data. Cruz's last five games overall show an average stolen base (SB) rate of 0.4, which is lower than the line of 0.5. His SB average in the last five away games is slightly higher at 0.6, but this is still within the margin of error. More importantly, his SB average against the Detroit Tigers is zero, indicating he has not been successful in stealing bases against this team. Additionally, Cruz's current hit streak is only two games overall and one game away, suggesting he may not be on base often enough to attempt a steal. Therefore, based on these statistics, the probability of Cruz stealing less than 0.5 bases is high.

Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Detroit Tigers Win (+108)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The Detroit Tigers are a strong bet for this MLB game. Despite their recent record against the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Tigers have demonstrated a strong defensive performance at home, allowing an average of only 1.8 runs in their last five games. This is significantly lower than the Pirates' away average of 3.6 runs allowed. Additionally, the Tigers' recent overall record is positive at 3-2, showing a winning trend. While the Tigers' scoring average is lower than the Pirates', their strong defensive record suggests they can effectively limit the Pirates' scoring opportunities. This combination of solid defense and recent winning form makes the Detroit Tigers a good choice for this Moneyline market.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 19 June 2025 at Comerica Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 4 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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