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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
Detroit Tigers

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 6:44PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Comerica Park, Detroit
Outdoor
Thu 19 Jun 2025, 5:10PM
20
Game markets graded
4
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 5 Total Runs -333

The model graded 24 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $130 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 19 Jun 2025, 5:10PM at Comerica Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win96.7%
The price says76.9%
Best price-333
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 5 High97% chance -333
Total Runs High98% chance
Total Runs Long-shot33% chance
Team Total High95% chance
Team Total High99% chance
Total Runs High99% chance
Team Total Long-shot17% chance
Total Runs High98% chance
Team Total Lean46% chance
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 95%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 1 prop Highup to 94%
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 90%
Batter - Stolen Bases × 1 prop Highup to 94%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
3.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut

Probable pitcher

Lake Bachar SP

Detroit Tigers

  • Riley Greene LFOut
  • Matt Vierling CFOut
  • Brant Hurter RPOut
  • Jack Flaherty SPOut
  • Kerry Carpenter RFOut
  • Wenceel Perez RFOut
  • Will Vest RPOut
  • Justin Verlander SPOut
  • Burch Smith RPOut
  • Bailey Horn RPOut
  • Parker Meadows CFOut
  • Trey Sweeney SSOut
  • Reese Olson SPOut

Probable pitcher

Keider Montero SP
Availability updated Aug 29, 6:15PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Andrew Heaney PIT Pitcher - Strikeouts
Tarik Skubal DET Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Andrew Heaney PIT Pitcher - Walks
Zach McKinstry DET Batter - Stolen Bases

+ 4 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineDetroit TigersNo line posted
0-5L5 record
L5 RF0.4L5 RA1.8Home L50-5vs Pittsburgh Pirates L52-3

Detroit Tigers moneyline form: last five 0-5, 0.4 runs/gm.

Run LineDetroit Tigers run lineNo line posted
0-5L5 record
L5 RF0.4L5 RA1.8Home L50-5vs Pittsburgh Pirates L52-3

Detroit Tigers spread form: last five 0-5, 0.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

Detroit Tigers total runs form: last five 0-5, 0.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsDetroit Tigers team totalNo line posted
0.6runs we expect
L5 RF0.4L5 RA1.8Home L50-5vs Pittsburgh Pirates L52-3

Detroit Tigers team total runs form: last five 0-5, 0.4 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers — what the model found

Our model graded 24 betting markets for Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers — 20 on the game itself and 4 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
4
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 24 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers — recent results

Detroit Tigers have won 2 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Pirates have won 3 of their last 5.

Detroit Tigers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W2–1LADHome
L1–2LADHome
L0–3TBHome
W4–1TBHome
L1–4TBHome
Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–4STLAway
W6–2STLAway
W1–0SDAway
L0–3SDAway
W3–2SDAway

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Detroit Tigers are scoring 2.8 runs per game (3-2) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 4.2 (2-3); Detroit Tigers pitchers are allowing 1.2 earned runs per game versus 3.6 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

2.8
Detroit Tigers runs/G
4.2
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesDetroit TigersPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game2.84.2
Hits / game7.010.2
Home runs / game0.41.0
Walks drawn / game2.24.2
Batter K / game5.28.8
Earned runs allowed / game1.23.6
Pitching K / game5.45.6
Walks allowed / game1.42.4
L5 record3-22-3

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Detroit Tigers won 1, Pittsburgh Pirates won 5.

DateDetroit TigersPittsburgh PiratesWinner
Aug 1934Pittsburgh Pirates
Aug 1814Pittsburgh Pirates
Aug 1785Detroit Tigers
Mar 1813Pittsburgh Pirates
Mar 1357Pittsburgh Pirates
Mar 735Pittsburgh Pirates

Who’s out or in doubt

17 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Detroit Tigers
PlayerStatus
Riley Greene LFOUT
Matt Vierling CFOUT
Brant Hurter RPOUT
Jack Flaherty SPOUT
Kerry Carpenter RFOUT
Wenceel Perez RFOUT
Will Vest RPOUT
Justin Verlander SPOUT
Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Konnor Griffin SSOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers — model preview

Unlock potential winning baseball bets for Detroit Tigers playing Pittsburgh Pirates. Includes analysis on key players like Gleyber Torres. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates stats and odds.

Gleyber Torres (DET) Over 0.5 Total Bases (-200)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Gleyber Torres for Over 0.5 in the Batter Total Bases market is a promising choice considering his consistent performance in recent games. His overall hits average in the last five games is 1.2, which indicates that he is likely to hit at least once in the upcoming game. Furthermore, his performance at home has been even better with an average of 2 hits per game. When playing against the Pirates, his average hits are 1 per game, with an additional 0.6 on average coming from doubles. Even though his current hit streak is zero, his past performance suggests a high probability of him scoring more than 0.5 total bases in the upcoming game. Therefore, the data supports the bet on Torres surpassing 0.5 total bases in the game versus the Pittsburgh Pirates.

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Pirates vs Tigers, or as Tigers vs Pirates. The most recent game between them was Thursday 19 June 2025 at Comerica Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 4 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 29 meetings on record
Detroit Tigers 15–12 across the last 29 meetings · 2 draws · these games average 9.8 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
19 Aug 2026Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates4–3Pittsburgh Pirates
18 Aug 2026Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates4–1Pittsburgh Pirates
17 Aug 2026Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates5–8Detroit Tigers
18 Mar 2026Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates3–1Pittsburgh Pirates
13 Mar 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers5–7Pittsburgh Pirates
7 Mar 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers3–5Pittsburgh Pirates
23 Jul 2025Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates6–1Pittsburgh Pirates
22 Jul 2025Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates8–5Pittsburgh Pirates
21 Jul 2025Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates3–0Pittsburgh Pirates
19 Jun 2025Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers9–2Detroit Tigers

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 29 meetings on file.

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