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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jared Jones is Over 1.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs.
On Pitcher - Earned Runs, our numbers say this bet wins about 46 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 46%, the price says 54%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Over 2.50 SOlanded 10 of the last 10
Over 1.50 BBlanded 9 of the last 10
Over 3.50 SOlanded 9 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Oct 6, 9:26AM UTC
MLB

Jared Jones

PIT

Jared Jones has one live pick today: Pitcher - Earned Runs Over 1.5 that pays $185 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Earned Runs Over 1.5 -118 (1.85) · $100→$185
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers
Comerica Park, Detroit, Michigan · Outdoor
Sun 27 Sep, 7:10PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher outs unders: 135 of 235 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
46 in 100
Predicted
2.3 Pitcher - Earned Runs
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 45.6% · before adjusting for past results 46.4% · the book's price implies 54.1% · gap -8.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Earned Runs46.4%45.6%54.1%1.95-7.7%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/0
Last 5 games0/0
Last 10 games0/0

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AI Analysis

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Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Jared Jones Over 1.5 Pitcher - Earned Runs (-118)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

For the Tigers to hit over 1.5 earned runs against the Pirates, they just need to get a few solid hits off pitcher Jared Jones. The Tigers have struggled lately, only winning 4 out of their last 10 games, but they have the potential to score when they find their rhythm. Comerica Park is a decent place for hitters, which might help them put some runs on the board. One risk is that the Pirates' home park, PNC Park, tends to keep home runs down, so it could affect how many runs they score. Still, the Tigers have shown they can put pressure on pitchers, and with the game being so close to a toss-up, it wouldn't be surprising to see them get those runs.

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Pick History & Track Record

Hit-rate ladder: SO

Jared Jones has gone over 2.5 SO in 100% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o2.5100%
o3.590%
o4.570%
o5.520%
o6.520%
o7.510%
o8.50%
o9.50%
o10.50%
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
16 Sep 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates Pitcher - Strikeouts 8.5 Over +750 ✓ HIT
16 Sep 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates Pitcher - Strikeouts 7.5 Over +350 ✓ HIT
16 Sep 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates Pitcher - Strikeouts 5.5 Over -106 ✓ HIT
27 Sep 26 Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers Pitcher - Earned Runs — — — Pending
27 Sep 26 Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers Pitcher - Walks — — — Pending
22 Sep 26 St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates Pitcher - Walks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jared Jones (PIT) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jared Jones is Over 1.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs. The model identifies a slight edge of -7.7% on this pick. Their next game is Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers on Sunday 27 September at Comerica Park, Detroit. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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