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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
Chicago White Sox

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 28, 9:30PM UTC

Our model graded 70 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox and backs Pittsburgh Pirates -2 hardest, a long shot, and $100 on it returns about $307.

MLB
Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago
Outdoor
Thu 10 Sep 2026, 11:40PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Pittsburgh Pirates -2 Spread +207

The model graded 70 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $307 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 10 Sep 2026, 11:40PM at Guaranteed Rate Field.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win30.8%
The price says29.8%
Best price+207
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -2 Long-shot31% chance +207
Spread Members only High79% chance Members
Total Runs Members only Long-shot19% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Members only Lean46% chance Members
Batter - Doubles × 2 props Highup to 86% Members
Batter - Stolen Bases × 5 props Highup to 89% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 4 props Highup to 66% Members
Batter - Walks × 12 props Highup to 98% Members
Batter - RBIs × 4 props Highup to 81% Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 6 props Highup to 63% Members
Batter - Hits × 9 props Leanup to 56% Members
Batter - Home Runs × 2 props Long-shotup to 25% Members
Pitcher - Earned Runs × 1 prop Leanup to 56% Members
Batter - Runs Scored × 4 props Long-shotup to 16% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago White Sox last met on Thu 10 Sep 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Pittsburgh Pirates -2 · $100 returned $358

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 125 of 217 right (mlb pitcher outs unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 27
Brandon Williamson Under 14.5
Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $211
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Pittsburgh Pirates
+4.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 58,347+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Oneil Cruz CFDay-to-day
  • Mitch Keller SPOut
  • Braxton Ashcraft SPOut
  • Esmerlyn Valdez RFOut
  • Isaac Mattson RPOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut

Chicago White Sox

  • Chase Meidroth 2BDay-to-day
  • Luis Castillo SPOut
  • Prelander Berroa RPOut
  • Ky Bush SPOut
  • Jordan Leasure RPOut
  • Joey Bart COut
  • Mike Vasil RPOut
  • Tanner Murray LFOut
  • Brooks Baldwin LFOut
Availability updated Sep 27, 5:16PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Henry Davis Batter - Doubles
Chase Meidroth CHW Batter - Stolen Bases
Rafael Flores Batter - Total Bases
Bryan Reynolds Batter - Stolen Bases
Henry Davis PIT Batter - Walks

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineChicago White SoxNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF5.8L5 RA3.6Home L52-3vs Pittsburgh Pirates L52-3Free board10-10

Chicago White Sox moneyline form: last five 3-2, 5.8 runs/gm.

Run LineChicago White Sox run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF5.8L5 RA3.6Home L52-3vs Pittsburgh Pirates L52-3

Chicago White Sox spread form: last five 3-2, 5.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

Chicago White Sox total runs form: last five 3-2, 5.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsChicago White Sox team totalNo line posted
4.6runs we expect
L5 RF5.8L5 RA3.6Home L52-3vs Pittsburgh Pirates L52-3

Chicago White Sox team total runs form: last five 3-2, 5.8 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox — recent results

Chicago White Sox have won 3 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Pirates have won 2 of their last 5.

Chicago White Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–2COLHome
L6–9COLHome
W6–1COLHome
W9–1KCAway
L4–5KCAway
Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–2DETAway
L3–4DETAway
L7–8DETAway
W2–1STLHome
L1–5STLHome

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Chicago White Sox won 0, Pittsburgh Pirates won 3.

DateChicago White SoxPittsburgh PiratesWinner
Sep 1002Pittsburgh Pirates
Sep 924Pittsburgh Pirates
Sep 839Pittsburgh Pirates

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Chicago White Sox
PlayerStatus
Chase Meidroth 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Luis Castillo SPOUT
Prelander Berroa RPOUT
Ky Bush SPOUT
Jordan Leasure RPOUT
Joey Bart COUT
Mike Vasil RPOUT
Tanner Murray LFOUT
Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Oneil Cruz CFDAY-TO-DAY
Mitch Keller SPOUT
Braxton Ashcraft SPOUT
Esmerlyn Valdez RFOUT
Isaac Mattson RPOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox — model preview

Our Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox prediction for September 11, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 11, 2026 our model has run Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 RBIs (-417), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
10 Sep 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 ✓ HIT
10 Sep 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates +2 ✓ HIT
10 Sep 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates +2.5 ✓ HIT
10 Sep 26 Moneyline Pittsburgh Pirates ✓ HIT
10 Sep 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -1 ✓ HIT
10 Sep 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates +1 ✓ HIT
10 Sep 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 ✓ HIT
10 Sep 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Pittsburgh Pirates -0.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Pirates vs Sox, or as Sox vs Pirates. The most recent game between them was Thursday 10 September 2026 at Guaranteed Rate Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 12 meetings on record
Pittsburgh Pirates 8–4 across the last 12 meetings · these games average 9.9 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
10 Sep 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox0–2Pittsburgh Pirates
9 Sep 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox2–4Pittsburgh Pirates
8 Sep 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox3–9Pittsburgh Pirates
20 Jul 2025Chicago White Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–7Chicago White Sox
19 Jul 2025Chicago White Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates4–10Chicago White Sox
18 Jul 2025Chicago White Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates1–10Chicago White Sox
14 Jul 2024Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox4–9Pittsburgh Pirates
13 Jul 2024Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox2–6Pittsburgh Pirates
12 Jul 2024Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox1–4Pittsburgh Pirates
9 Apr 2023Chicago White Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates1–0Pittsburgh Pirates

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 12 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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