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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Oneil Cruz is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases.
On the Batter - Stolen Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 96%, versus the book's implied 93%, for a model edge of +3.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 4:40PM UTC
MLB

Oneil Cruz

PIT

+3.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Stolen Bases Under 0.5 -1250 (1.08)
+3.2% Edge
Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania · Outdoor
Thu 16 Apr, 4:35PM
OUT
The Pirates transferred Cruz (hand) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports.
updated Jul 18, 3:43PM UTC · 3d old
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Model Probability
95.8%
Implied Probability
92.6%
Model Edge
+3.2%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Stolen Bases95.8%92.6%1.04+3.2%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Oneil Cruz (PIT) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-1250)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Pirates prepare to face off against the Nationals, all eyes should be on Oneil Cruz when it comes to the stolen base market. Despite his speed, recent trends indicate a shift; Cruz has been more selective on the basepaths, swiping just one bag in his last ten games. The Nationals’ pitchers have also been effective at holding runners, allowing only a handful of stolen bases this season. Cruz’s aggressive style has often led to attempts, but with the Nationals’ catchers boasting a strong arm and the team’s overall focus on limiting base thefts, the under on 0.5 feels like the right play. With an implied probability hovering around 92.6%, this bet is backed by solid metrics and recent performance. It’s a compelling narrative that suggests a quieter day for Cruz in the base-stealing department.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%

Oneil Cruz MLB hitsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
L2070%

Oneil Cruz MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%

Oneil Cruz MLB walksseason and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Oneil Cruz (PIT) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Oneil Cruz is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.2% on this pick. Their next game is Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday 16 April at PNC Park, Pittsburgh. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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