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Model picks & player props
San Francisco Giants
VS
Pittsburgh Pirates

San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 6:44PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Outdoor
Wed 6 Aug 2025, 4:35PM
20
Game markets graded
5
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 6.5 Team Total +285

The model graded 25 markets for San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $385 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 6 Aug 2025, 4:35PM at PNC Park.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win43.3%
The price says26.0%
Best price+285
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Team Total Over 6.5 Lean43% chance +285
Spread High64% chance
Team Total High80% chance
Team Total Lean60% chance
Team Total High98% chance
Total Runs High96% chance
Team Total Long-shot24% chance
Team Total High94% chance
Team Total High98% chance
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 95%
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 98%
Batter - Stolen Bases × 2 props Highup to 94%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 1 prop Highup to 92%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Team Total
Over
6.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 5 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,376+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Francisco GiantsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

San Francisco Giants

  • Casey Schmitt LFOut
  • Willy Adames SSOut
  • Jesus Rodriguez COut
  • Carson Whisenhunt SPOut
  • Adrian Houser SPOut
  • Matt Gage RPOut
  • JT Brubaker RPOut
  • Victor Bericoto LFOut
  • Joel Peguero RPOut
  • Marcelo Mayer 2BOut
  • Keaton Winn RPOut
  • Daniel Susac COut
  • Harrison Bader CFOut
  • Matt Chapman 3BOut
  • Trevor McDonald SPOut
  • Rowan Wick RPOut
  • Hayden Birdsong RPOut
  • Randy Rodriguez RPOut
  • Jose Butto RPOut

Probable pitcher

Matt Wilkinson SP
Yunior Marte SP

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut

Probable pitcher

Lake Bachar SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 2:05AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 23 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability23 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Andrew Heaney PIT Pitcher - Strikeouts
Robbie Ray SFG Pitcher - Walks
Tommy Pham PIT Batter - Stolen Bases
Robbie Ray SFG Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Isiah Kiner-Falefa PIT Batter - Stolen Bases

+ 5 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePittsburgh PiratesNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.0L5 RA0.8Home L52-3vs San Francisco Giants L54-1

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Run LinePittsburgh Pirates run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.0L5 RA0.8Home L52-3vs San Francisco Giants L54-1

Pittsburgh Pirates spread form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco GiantsNo line posted

Pittsburgh Pirates total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPittsburgh Pirates team totalNo line posted
0.7runs we expect
L5 RF1.0L5 RA0.8Home L52-3vs San Francisco Giants L54-1

Pittsburgh Pirates team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates — what the model found

Our model graded 25 betting markets for San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates — 20 on the game itself and 5 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
5
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 25 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 24 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent results

Pittsburgh Pirates have won 3 of their last 5 games; San Francisco Giants have won 2 of their last 5.

Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–4STLAway
W6–2STLAway
W1–0SDAway
L0–3SDAway
W3–2SDAway
San Francisco Giants — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L6–10ARIHome
L1–7ARIHome
W6–1ARIHome
W3–1CINHome
L9–10CINHome

San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Pittsburgh Pirates won 1, San Francisco Giants won 2.

DatePittsburgh PiratesSan Francisco GiantsWinner
May 10133Pittsburgh Pirates
May 1067San Francisco Giants
May 925San Francisco Giants

Who’s out or in doubt

23 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Konnor Griffin SSOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT
San Francisco Giants
PlayerStatus
Casey Schmitt LFOUT
Willy Adames SSOUT
Jesus Rodriguez COUT
Carson Whisenhunt SPOUT
Adrian Houser SPOUT
Matt Gage RPOUT
JT Brubaker RPOUT
Victor Bericoto LFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates — model preview

Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants. Includes analysis on key players like Logan Webb. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants stats and odds.

Logan Webb (SFG) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-455)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Logan Webb for Over 0.5 in the Pitcher Walks Allowed market is backed by his statistical performance. Over his last five games, Webb has an average of 1.4 walks allowed overall and 1.6 when playing away. This trend is consistent even when specifically playing against the Pirates, with an average of 1.5 walks allowed. This suggests a consistent tendency for Webb to allow at least one walk per game. His innings pitched and outs averages further support this, indicating he typically plays long enough in each game for a walk to occur. Despite his current hit streak being zero, his historical performance indicates a strong likelihood of him allowing at least one walk in the upcoming game. Therefore, the Over 0.5 bet is a statistically sound choice.

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Giants vs Pirates, or as Pirates vs Giants. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 6 August 2025 at PNC Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 5 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 21 meetings on record
San Francisco Giants 12–9 across the last 21 meetings · these games average 8.9 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
10 May 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants3–13Pittsburgh Pirates
9 May 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants5–2San Francisco Giants
8 May 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants5–2San Francisco Giants
6 Aug 2025San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–4San Francisco Giants
5 Aug 2025San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates1–8San Francisco Giants
4 Aug 2025San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates5–4Pittsburgh Pirates
30 Jul 2025Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants1–2Pittsburgh Pirates
29 Jul 2025Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants1–3Pittsburgh Pirates
28 Jul 2025Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants5–6Pittsburgh Pirates
23 May 2024San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates6–7San Francisco Giants

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 21 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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