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Model picks & player props
San Francisco Giants
VS
Pittsburgh Pirates

San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:18AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Outdoor
Wed 6 Aug 2025, 4:35PM
20
Game Picks
5
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 6.5 (Team Total Runs)
For San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB), model win probability 43.3%, fair odds 2.31, book price +285, model edge +17.4%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Wed 6 Aug 2025, 4:35PM at PNC Park.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total Runs
Over
1.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Francisco GiantsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

San Francisco Giants

  • Trevor McDonald SPDay-to-day
  • Harrison Bader CFOut
  • Matt Chapman 3BOut
  • Victor Bericoto RFOut
  • Jonah Cox CFOut
  • Matt Gage RPOut
  • Joel Peguero RPOut
  • Rowan Wick RPOut
  • Hayden Birdsong RPOut
  • Randy Rodriguez RPOut
  • Jose Butto RPOut

Probable pitcher

Trevor McDonald SP

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Spencer Horwitz 1BOut
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Evan Sisk RPOut
  • Chris Devenski RPOut

Probable pitcher

Braxton Ashcraft SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 2:36AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Andrew Heaney PIT Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Robbie Ray SFG Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Tommy Pham PIT Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Robbie Ray SFG Pitcher - Hits Allowed 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Isiah Kiner-Falefa PIT Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePittsburgh PiratesNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF8.6L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs San Francisco Giants L52-3Win rec6-7

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline form: last five 4-1, 8.6 runs/gm.

Run LinePittsburgh Pirates run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF8.6L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs San Francisco Giants L52-3ATS6-8

Pittsburgh Pirates spread form: last five 4-1, 8.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco GiantsNo line posted

Pittsburgh Pirates total runs form: last five 4-1, 8.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPittsburgh Pirates team totalNo line posted
5.4implied team total
L5 RF8.6L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs San Francisco Giants L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates team total runs form: last five 4-1, 8.6 runs/gm.

San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants. Includes analysis on key players like Logan Webb. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants stats and odds.</p>

Logan Webb (SFG) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-455)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Logan Webb for Over 0.5 in the Pitcher Walks Allowed market is backed by his statistical performance. Over his last five games, Webb has an average of 1.4 walks allowed overall and 1.6 when playing away. This trend is consistent even when specifically playing against the Pirates, with an average of 1.5 walks allowed. This suggests a consistent tendency for Webb to allow at least one walk per game. His innings pitched and outs averages further support this, indicating he typically plays long enough in each game for a walk to occur. Despite his current hit streak being zero, his historical performance indicates a strong likelihood of him allowing at least one walk in the upcoming game. Therefore, the Over 0.5 bet is a statistically sound choice.

Oneil Cruz (PIT) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-476)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Oneil Cruz for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a strong choice due to Cruz's recent performance and the statistical averages. Cruz's last five games show an average of 0.4 stolen bases overall and at home, indicating a lower tendency to steal bases. This trend is even more pronounced when facing the Giants, with an average of just 0.2 stolen bases. Furthermore, his current hit streaks, both overall and at home, are relatively low, which suggests he may not be at the plate frequently enough to attempt a steal. The absence of caught stealing (Cs) instances in the last five games also implies a conservative base running strategy. Thus, the statistics suggest that Cruz is unlikely to steal a base in the upcoming game, making the Under 0.5 bet a solid choice.

Nick Gonzales (PIT) Over 0.5 Hits (-233)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Nick Gonzales has been performing well, with an average of 1.2 hits over his last five games. This is well above the line of 0.5, indicating a strong likelihood of him achieving at least one hit in the upcoming game. Furthermore, his plate appearance (PA) average of 4 suggests he has ample opportunities to hit. His performance at home is slightly lower with an average of 0.6 hits, but this is still above the line. Against the Giants, his hit average is 0.8, further supporting the bet. Gonzales also currently has a hit streak, both overall and at home, which means he is in good form. Based on these statistics, betting on Nick Gonzales to achieve over 0.5 hits in the game against the San Francisco Giants is a statistically sound choice.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Wednesday 6 August 2025 at PNC Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 5 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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