Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Nick Gonzales is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 77%, versus the book's implied 68%, for a model edge of +9.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 7:10PM UTC
MLB

Nick Gonzales

MLB

+9.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -213 (1.47)
+9.2% Edge
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians
Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio · Outdoor
Fri 17 Jul, 11:10PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
77.2%
Implied Probability
68.0%
Model Edge
+9.2%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases77.2%—68.0%1.29+9.2%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/3
Last 10 games1/3

See the full 20-game form curve

Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Nick Gonzales (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-213)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Guardians welcome the Pirates on July 17, all eyes should be on Nick Gonzales. While he's shown flashes of promise, recent trends suggest he might struggle to eclipse 1.5 total bases tonight. The Guardians' pitching staff has been on fire lately, boasting an impressive strikeout rate that could put Gonzales in a tight spot. Add in the fact that he's facing off against a lefty, and his numbers against southpaws haven’t been stellar. The Guardians' defense behind the plate is solid, limiting extra-base hits and making it tough for hitters to find gaps. With Gonzales averaging just under a total bases mark of 1 in recent games, the under on 1.5 seems like a savvy play. Expect a methodical approach from the Cleveland pitchers, and anticipate Gonzales having a tough night at the plate. The under is the smart money here.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Batter - Total BasesUpcoming gameU 1.5 -213+9.2% edge
60%hit L10
L2060%

Nick Gonzales MLB total bases: cleared under 1.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Current line U 1.5 at -213 (+9.2% model edge).

Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
63%hit L10
Streak4
O 0.563%
O 1.513%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 1.4 · hi 3 · lo 0
01132

Nick Gonzales MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 63% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.513%

Nick Gonzales MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10

Nick Gonzales MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 1.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
Streak3
O 0.550%
O 1.513%

Nick Gonzales MLB rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
L2055%

Nick Gonzales MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.4avg walks · L5
O 0.520%
O 1.510%

Nick Gonzales MLB walks: averaging 0.4 walks over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Jul 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -192 ✗ MISS
04 Jul 26 Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -270 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -164 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies Batter - Hits — — — Pending
30 Jun 26 Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies Batter - Hits — — — Pending
28 Jun 26 Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates Batter - Hits — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Nick Gonzales is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nick Gonzales is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.2% on this pick. Their next game is Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians on Friday 17 July at Progressive Field, Cleveland. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.