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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
Miami Marlins

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 7:21AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
loanDepot Park, Miami
Indoor
Thu 13 Aug 2026, 5:10PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Miami Marlins Moneyline +111

The model graded 70 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $211 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 13 Aug 2026, 5:10PM at loanDepot Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win66.6%
The price says46.7%
Best price+111
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Miami Marlins High67% chance +111
Spread Lean45% chance
Spread Lean51% chance
Spread Lean41% chance
Spread Long-shot31% chance
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Lean52% chance
Spread Long-shot22% chance
Spread Long-shot16% chance
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 9 props Highup to 94%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 1 prop Highup to 91%
Batter - Hits × 4 props Highup to 96%
Batter - Total Bases × 6 props Highup to 88%
Batter - Singles × 7 props Highup to 83%
Batter - Runs Scored × 3 props Highup to 87%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Miami Marlins -3.5 · $100 returned $730

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Miami Marlins
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Miami MarlinsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut

Probable pitcher

Braxton Ashcraft SP

Miami Marlins

  • Xavier Edwards 2BDay-to-day
  • Pete Fairbanks RPOut
  • Andrew Nardi RPOut
  • Max Meyer SPOut
  • Anthony Bender RPOut
  • William Kempner RPOut
  • Robby Snelling SPOut
  • Adam Mazur SPOut
  • Ronny Henriquez RPOut

Probable pitcher

Janson Junk SP
Availability updated Aug 31, 12:32AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Griffin Conine MIA Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Braxton Ashcraft PIT Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Jake Mangum Batter - Hits
Otto Lopez MIA Batter - Total Bases
Ronny Simon PIT Batter - Singles

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineMiami MarlinsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.6Home L51-4vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2Free board14-11

Miami Marlins moneyline form: last five 3-2, 0.8 runs/gm.

Run LineMiami Marlins run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.6Home L51-4vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

Miami Marlins spread form: last five 3-2, 0.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

Miami Marlins total runs form: last five 3-2, 0.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsMiami Marlins team totalNo line posted
0.8runs we expect
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.6Home L51-4vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

Miami Marlins team total runs form: last five 3-2, 0.8 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins — recent results

Miami Marlins have won 2 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Pirates have won 3 of their last 5.

Miami Marlins — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–2WSHAway
L4–5WSHAway
L2–9WSHAway
W4–0BOSHome
L3–7BOSHome
Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–4STLAway
L1–4STLAway
W6–2STLAway
W1–0SDAway
L0–3SDAway

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Miami Marlins are scoring 3.6 runs per game (3-2) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 1.6 (1-4); Miami Marlins pitchers are allowing 0.4 earned runs per game versus 2.4 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

3.6
Miami Marlins runs/G
1.6
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesMiami MarlinsPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game3.61.6
Hits / game3.62.6
Home runs / game0.40.2
Walks drawn / game1.20.8
Batter K / game1.81.6
Earned runs allowed / game0.42.4
Pitching K / game1.61.4
Walks allowed / game0.61.0
L5 record3-21-4

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Miami Marlins won 4, Pittsburgh Pirates won 2.

DateMiami MarlinsPittsburgh PiratesWinner
Aug 13113Pittsburgh Pirates
Aug 1282Miami Marlins
Aug 1120Miami Marlins
Jun 1442Miami Marlins
Jun 1323Pittsburgh Pirates
Jun 1283Miami Marlins

Who’s out or in doubt

13 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Miami Marlins
PlayerStatus
Xavier Edwards 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Pete Fairbanks RPOUT
Andrew Nardi RPOUT
Max Meyer SPOUT
Anthony Bender RPOUT
William Kempner RPOUT
Robby Snelling SPOUT
Adam Mazur SPOUT
Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Konnor Griffin SSOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins — model preview

Our Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins prediction for August 13, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 13, 2026 our model has run Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Miami Marlins +2.5 (-476), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
13 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Miami Marlins 2.5 ✓ HIT
13 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Miami Marlins 3.5 ✓ HIT
13 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Under 2.5 ✓ HIT
13 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Under 3.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 10.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Miami Marlins -0.5 ✓ HIT
12 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Miami Marlins -1.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Pirates vs Marlins, or as Marlins vs Pirates. The most recent game between them was Thursday 13 August 2026 at loanDepot Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 27 meetings on record
Pittsburgh Pirates 14–13 across the last 27 meetings · these games average 7.9 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
13 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins1–13Pittsburgh Pirates
12 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins8–2Miami Marlins
11 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins2–0Miami Marlins
14 Jun 2026Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–4Miami Marlins
13 Jun 2026Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates3–2Pittsburgh Pirates
12 Jun 2026Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates3–8Miami Marlins
11 Jun 2025Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates5–2Pittsburgh Pirates
10 Jun 2025Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–3Miami Marlins
9 Jun 2025Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates10–3Pittsburgh Pirates
30 Mar 2025Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins3–2Miami Marlins

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 27 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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