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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
San Diego Padres

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 17, 3:48PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Petco Park, San Diego
Outdoor
Wed 26 Aug 2026, 8:10PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 4.5 Total Runs +500

The model graded 70 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $600 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 26 Aug 2026, 8:10PM at Petco Park.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win21.8%
The price says17.2%
Best price+500
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Under 4.5 Long-shot22% chance +500
Spread Long-shot11% chance
Spread Long-shot22% chance
Spread Long-shot13% chance
Spread Long-shot30% chance
Spread Long-shot21% chance
Total Runs Lean52% chance
Spread Long-shot9% chance
Spread Long-shot18% chance
Pitcher - Walks × 2 props Highup to 78%
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 91%
Batter - Walks × 15 props Highup to 98%
Batter - Runs Scored × 8 props Highup to 87%
Batter - Singles × 4 props Highup to 74%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres last met on Wed 26 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Under 4.5 · $100 returned $440

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 88 of 190 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 17
Jake Bennett Over 2.5
Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $117
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Under
8.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Esmerlyn Valdez RFOut
  • Braxton Ashcraft SPOut
  • Isaac Mattson RPOut
  • Kirby Yates RPOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut

Probable pitcher

Jared Jones SP

San Diego Padres

  • Gavin Sheets 1BOut
  • Jeremiah Estrada RPOut
  • Ramon Laureano LFOut
  • Jason Adam RPOut
  • Miguel Andujar DHOut
  • Joe Musgrove SPOut
  • Luis Rengifo LFOut
  • Lucas Giolito SPOut
  • Bryan Hoeing RPOut

Probable pitcher

Robbie Ray SP
Availability updated Sep 17, 12:40AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Bubba Chandler PIT Pitcher - Walks
Bubba Chandler PIT Pitcher - Strikeouts
Paul Skenes PIT Pitcher - Walks
Luis Rengifo LAA Batter - Walks
Ty France SEA Batter - Runs Scored

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSan Diego PadresNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF6.2L5 RA6.2Home L54-1vs Pittsburgh Pirates L54-1Free board20-13

San Diego Padres moneyline form: last five 4-1, 6.2 runs/gm.

Run LineSan Diego Padres run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF6.2L5 RA6.2Home L54-1vs Pittsburgh Pirates L54-1

San Diego Padres spread form: last five 4-1, 6.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

San Diego Padres total runs form: last five 4-1, 6.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSan Diego Padres team totalNo line posted
5.5runs we expect
L5 RF6.2L5 RA6.2Home L54-1vs Pittsburgh Pirates L54-1

San Diego Padres team total runs form: last five 4-1, 6.2 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres — recent results

San Diego Padres have won 5 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Pirates have won 3 of their last 5.

San Diego Padres — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W8–7COLAway
W6–4SFAway
W7–5SFAway
W7–6SFAway
W5–4WSHHome
Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–3CHCAway
L3–4CHCAway
L2–12CHCAway
W2–0CHWAway
W4–2CHWAway

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: San Diego Padres won 3, Pittsburgh Pirates won 3.

DateSan Diego PadresPittsburgh PiratesWinner
Aug 2601Pittsburgh Pirates
Aug 2630San Diego Padres
Aug 2523Pittsburgh Pirates
Apr 882San Diego Padres
Apr 717Pittsburgh Pirates
Apr 650San Diego Padres

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

San Diego Padres
PlayerStatus
Gavin Sheets 1BOUT
Jeremiah Estrada RPOUT
Ramon Laureano LFOUT
Jason Adam RPOUT
Miguel Andujar DHOUT
Joe Musgrove SPOUT
Luis Rengifo LFOUT
Lucas Giolito SPOUT
Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Esmerlyn Valdez RFOUT
Braxton Ashcraft SPOUT
Isaac Mattson RPOUT
Kirby Yates RPOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres — model preview

Our Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres prediction for August 27, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 27, 2026 our model has run Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Luis Rengifo (LAA) Under 0.5 RBIs (-370), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
26 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 8.5 ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 4.5 ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 9 ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 9.5 ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 7.5 ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 7 ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 10.5 ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 5 ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 10 ✓ HIT
26 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 5.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Pirates vs Padres, or as Padres vs Pirates. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 26 August 2026 at Petco Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 24 meetings on record
San Diego Padres 15–9 across the last 24 meetings · these games average 7.5 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
26 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres3–0San Diego Padres
25 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres2–3Pittsburgh Pirates
24 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres2–3Pittsburgh Pirates
8 Apr 2026San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–8San Diego Padres
7 Apr 2026San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates7–1Pittsburgh Pirates
6 Apr 2026San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates0–5San Diego Padres
1 Jun 2025Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres6–4San Diego Padres
31 May 2025Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres0–5Pittsburgh Pirates
30 May 2025Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres3–2San Diego Padres
4 May 2025San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates0–4San Diego Padres

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 24 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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