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St. Louis Cardinals
VS
Pittsburgh Pirates

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks & Predictions

Model updated Oct 1, 9:06AM UTC

Our model graded 70 markets for St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates and backs Over 7.5 hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $228.

MLB
PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Outdoor
Thu 24 Sep 2026, 4:35PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 7.5 Total Runs +128

The model graded 70 markets for St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $228 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 24 Sep 2026, 4:35PM at PNC Park.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win43.3%
The price says42.9%
Best price+128
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 7.5 Lean43% chance +128
Total Runs Members only Long-shot17% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot14% chance Members
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot10% chance Members
Spread Members only Long-shot7% chance Members
Batter - Doubles × 8 props Highup to 75% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 10 props Leanup to 46% Members
Batter - Stolen Bases × 3 props Highup to 84% Members
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 64% Members
Batter - RBIs × 15 props Leanup to 43% Members
Batter - Walks × 3 props Long-shotup to 38% Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 10 props Long-shotup to 32% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every MLB game on today's board →

St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates last met on Thu 24 Sep 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 · $100 returned $740

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 131 of 230 right (mlb pitcher outs unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 30
Payton Tolle Under 17.5
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $181
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
7.5
+128
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Hunter Dobbins SPOut
  • Richard Fitts SPDay-to-day
  • Masyn Winn SSOut
  • Blaze Jordan 3BOut
  • Joshua Baez LFOut
  • Everson Pereira RFOut
  • Tekoah Roby SPDay-to-day
  • Max Rajcic RPOut

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Oneil Cruz CFDay-to-day
  • Mitch Keller SPOut
  • Braxton Ashcraft SPOut
  • Esmerlyn Valdez RFOut
  • Isaac Mattson RPOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
Availability updated Sep 29, 4:13PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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The preview

Written 25 Sep

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction and Picks, September 25, 2026

On September 25, 2026 our model has run St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 Walks (-263), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

Spencer Horwitz (TOR) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-200)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Pittsburgh Pirates play St. Louis Cardinals in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Spencer Horwitz (TOR) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-200). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at -200 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 Walks (-263)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Pittsburgh Pirates play St. Louis Cardinals in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 Walks (-263). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -263 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-105)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Pittsburgh Pirates play St. Louis Cardinals in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-105). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at -105 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.52 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals: Over 5.5 Total Runs (-200)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Pittsburgh Pirates play St. Louis Cardinals in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals: Over 5.5 Total Runs (-200). That is a alternate totals bet. It was priced at -200 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals: Over 3.5 totals 1st 5 innings (-115)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Pittsburgh Pirates play St. Louis Cardinals in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals: Over 3.5 totals 1st 5 innings (-115). That is a totals 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at -115 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals: Over 6 Total Runs (-179)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Pittsburgh Pirates play St. Louis Cardinals in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals: Over 6 Total Runs (-179). That is a alternate totals bet. It was priced at -179 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.59 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Same game parlay

Written 25 Sep

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction and Same Game Parlay picks, September 25, 2026

On September 25, 2026 our 3-leg same game parlay for St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates is built from the bets our model already likes on their own. We rate the whole slip HIGH confidence. Every leg below is a bet our model already rates on its own, so you can see exactly what you are backing and what the book is paying for it.

The legs, one at a time

Kyle Leahy (STL) Over 1.5 Strikeouts (-526)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Pittsburgh Pirates play St. Louis Cardinals in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Kyle Leahy (STL) Over 1.5 Strikeouts (-526). That is a Strikeouts bet. It was priced at -526 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Konnor Griffin Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-588)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Pittsburgh Pirates play St. Louis Cardinals in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Konnor Griffin Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-588). That is a Stolen Bases bet. It was priced at -588 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Oneil Cruz (PIT) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-476)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Pittsburgh Pirates play St. Louis Cardinals in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Oneil Cruz (PIT) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-476). That is a Stolen Bases bet. It was priced at -476 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every leg above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Masyn Winn Batter - Doubles
Spencer Horwitz TOR Batter - Doubles
Nick Gonzales Batter - Doubles
Ivan Herrera STL Batter - Doubles
Jake Mangum PIT Batter - Doubles

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePittsburgh PiratesNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.2L5 RA3.4Home L52-3vs St. Louis Cardinals L53-2

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

Run LinePittsburgh Pirates run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.2L5 RA3.4Home L52-3vs St. Louis Cardinals L53-2

Pittsburgh Pirates spread form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis CardinalsNo line posted

Pittsburgh Pirates total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPittsburgh Pirates team totalNo line posted
3.2runs we expect
L5 RF3.2L5 RA3.4Home L52-3vs St. Louis Cardinals L53-2

Pittsburgh Pirates team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent results

Pittsburgh Pirates have won 2 of their last 5 games; St. Louis Cardinals have won 1 of their last 5.

Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–2DETAway
L3–4DETAway
L7–8DETAway
W2–1STLHome
L1–5STLHome
St. Louis Cardinals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–6MILAway
L2–3MILAway
L4–8MILAway
L1–2PITAway
W5–1PITAway

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Pittsburgh Pirates are scoring 5.4 runs per game (5-0) while St. Louis Cardinals are at 3.2 (1-4); Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers are allowing 3.4 earned runs per game versus 4.2 for St. Louis Cardinals.

5.4
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
3.2
St. Louis Cardinals runs/G
Last 5 gamesPittsburgh PiratesSt. Louis Cardinals
Runs / game5.43.2
Hits / game8.86.6
Home runs / game1.40.6
Walks drawn / game3.62.8
Batter K / game7.610.8
Earned runs allowed / game3.44.2
Pitching K / game10.85.6
Walks allowed / game2.63.8
L5 record5-01-4

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Pittsburgh Pirates won 6, St. Louis Cardinals won 4.

DatePittsburgh PiratesSt. Louis CardinalsWinner
Sep 2421Pittsburgh Pirates
Sep 2315St. Louis Cardinals
Sep 2220Pittsburgh Pirates
Aug 3054Pittsburgh Pirates
Aug 2914St. Louis Cardinals
Aug 2962Pittsburgh Pirates
May 2162Pittsburgh Pirates
May 2070Pittsburgh Pirates
May 1969St. Louis Cardinals
Apr 30510St. Louis Cardinals

Who’s out or in doubt

14 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Oneil Cruz CFDAY-TO-DAY
Mitch Keller SPOUT
Braxton Ashcraft SPOUT
Esmerlyn Valdez RFOUT
Isaac Mattson RPOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT
St. Louis Cardinals
PlayerStatus
Hunter Dobbins SPOUT
Richard Fitts SPDAY-TO-DAY
Masyn Winn SSOUT
Blaze Jordan 3BOUT
Joshua Baez LFOUT
Everson Pereira RFOUT
Tekoah Roby SPDAY-TO-DAY
Max Rajcic RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates — model preview

Our St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates prediction for September 25, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 25, 2026 our model has run St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 Walks (-263), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
24 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Cardinals vs Pirates, or as Pirates vs Cardinals. The most recent game between them was Thursday 24 September 2026 at PNC Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 54 meetings on record
Pittsburgh Pirates 28–26 across the last 54 meetings · these games average 7.3 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
24 Sep 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–1Pittsburgh Pirates
23 Sep 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates1–5St. Louis Cardinals
22 Sep 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–0Pittsburgh Pirates
30 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals4–5Pittsburgh Pirates
29 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals2–6Pittsburgh Pirates
28 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals4–1St. Louis Cardinals
21 May 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals2–6Pittsburgh Pirates
20 May 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals0–7Pittsburgh Pirates
19 May 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals9–6St. Louis Cardinals
30 Apr 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates5–10St. Louis Cardinals

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 54 meetings on file.

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