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Model picks & player props
St. Louis Cardinals
VS
Pittsburgh Pirates

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 25, 11:55AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Outdoor
Mon 30 Jun 2025, 10:40PM
2
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Pittsburgh Pirates (Moneyline)
For St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB), model win probability 59.6%, fair odds 1.68, book price +104, model edge +10.6%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Mon 30 Jun 2025, 10:40PM at PNC Park.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Pittsburgh PiratesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Ramon Urias 3BOut
  • Max Rajcic RPOut
  • JoJo Romero RPOut

Probable pitcher

Dustin May SP

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Rafael Flores Jr. COut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Chris Devenski RPOut
  • Spencer Horwitz 1BOut
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Evan Sisk RPOut

Probable pitcher

Jared Jones SP
Availability updated Jul 25, 12:15AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 10 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability10 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePittsburgh PiratesNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA2.2Home L54-1vs St. Louis Cardinals L53-2Win rec6-7

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Run LinePittsburgh Pirates run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA2.2Home L54-1vs St. Louis Cardinals L53-2ATS6-8

Pittsburgh Pirates spread form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis CardinalsNo line posted

Pittsburgh Pirates total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPittsburgh Pirates team totalNo line posted
2.8implied team total
L5 RF3.4L5 RA2.2Home L54-1vs St. Louis Cardinals L53-2

Pittsburgh Pirates team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Pittsburgh Pirates are scoring 4.2 runs per game (2-3) while St. Louis Cardinals are at 4.2 (1-4); Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers are allowing 3.6 earned runs per game versus 4.2 for St. Louis Cardinals.

4.2
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
4.2
St. Louis Cardinals runs/G
Last 5 gamesPittsburgh PiratesSt. Louis Cardinals
Runs / game4.24.2
Hits / game10.26.8
Home runs / game1.00.6
Walks drawn / game4.23.2
Batter K / game8.87.4
Earned runs allowed / game3.64.2
Pitching K / game5.65.8
Walks allowed / game2.43.6
L5 record2-31-4

St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals. Includes analysis on key players like Oneil Cruz. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals stats and odds.</p>

Oneil Cruz (PIT) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-357)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Oneil Cruz for under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a good choice considering his recent performance data. His average stolen bases over the last five games, both overall and at home, are only 0.4 per game. This is less than the line of 0.5, indicating that he is statistically more likely to steal fewer than 0.5 bases in the game. Furthermore, when playing against the St. Louis Cardinals, his average stolen bases drop to zero. His current hit streaks, both overall and at home, do not significantly enhance his chances of stealing bases. Thus, the under bet is statistically justified based on Cruz's recent performance.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Monday 30 June 2025 at PNC Park. The model has generated 2 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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