Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Pittsburgh Pirates

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:17AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Outdoor
Sun 29 Jun 2025, 5:35PM
3
Game Picks
12
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: New York Mets (Moneyline)
For New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB), model win probability 80.7%, fair odds 1.24, book price -164, model edge +18.6%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 29 Jun 2025, 5:35PM at PNC Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
New York Mets
-164
+ 2 more markets
Unlock with Pro
🔒
🔒

Unlock every graded pick for this game

See the full board for this matchup — every market, every line, every edge — plus every pick across the slate.

Bet Better Unlock all game picks
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
New York MetsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Unlock the full calibrated board

See the model's calibrated probability, fair odds and edge on every market in this matchup.

Bet Better Unlock calibrated edges
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Clay Holmes SPOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Dedniel Nunez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Freddy Peralta SP

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Spencer Horwitz 1BOut
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Evan Sisk RPOut
  • Chris Devenski RPOut

Probable pitcher

Braxton Ashcraft SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 2:06AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Brandon Nimmo NYM Batter - Singles 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Luis Torrens NYM Batter - Singles 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Andrew McCutchen PIT Batter - Singles 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Doubles 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

Unlock every player prop for this game

Get the player, the line, the pick and the edge on every graded prop in this matchup.

Bet Better Unlock player props
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePittsburgh PiratesNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF8.6L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs New York Mets L52-3Win rec6-7

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline form: last five 4-1, 8.6 runs/gm.

Run LinePittsburgh Pirates run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF8.6L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs New York Mets L52-3ATS6-8

Pittsburgh Pirates spread form: last five 4-1, 8.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York MetsNo line posted

Pittsburgh Pirates total runs form: last five 4-1, 8.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPittsburgh Pirates team totalNo line posted
5.5implied team total
L5 RF8.6L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs New York Mets L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates team total runs form: last five 4-1, 8.6 runs/gm.

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Pittsburgh Pirates are scoring 4.2 runs per game (2-3) while New York Mets are at 4.4 (4-1); Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers are allowing 3.6 earned runs per game versus 2.6 for New York Mets.

4.2
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
4.4
New York Mets runs/G
Last 5 gamesPittsburgh PiratesNew York Mets
Runs / game4.24.4
Hits / game10.28.2
Home runs / game1.01.4
Walks drawn / game4.23.0
Batter K / game8.86.0
Earned runs allowed / game3.62.6
Pitching K / game5.610.6
Walks allowed / game2.43.2
L5 record2-34-1

New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates — model preview

<p>Deep dive into Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Oneil Cruz. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets stats and odds.</p>

Oneil Cruz (PIT) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-417)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The under 0.5 stolen bases bet for Oneil Cruz in the Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets game is a good choice based on Cruz's recent performance data. Over his last five games, Cruz has an average of 0.4 stolen bases, both overall and at home, indicating he doesn't frequently steal bases. Furthermore, his stolen base average against the Mets specifically is 0, suggesting he's even less likely to steal a base in this matchup. His current hit streak of 2 games overall and 1 at home does not necessarily translate into stolen base opportunities. With no recent caught stealing incidents either overall or at home, it's clear that Cruz is not taking many risks on the bases. Therefore, the probability of him stealing a base in this game is statistically low, supporting the under 0.5 bet.

Francisco Lindor (NYM) Over 0.5 Hits (-278)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Francisco Lindor's recent performance data makes a strong case for a bet on Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market. His overall average hits in the last five games stand at 1.8, indicating a high probability of at least one hit in the upcoming game. This is further supported by his average plate appearances (PA), which are 4.6 overall and 5 when playing away, giving him ample opportunities to hit. Lindor also has an impressive current hit streak, with 3 hits overall and 5 away, demonstrating consistent performance. His averages against the opposition and while playing away, though slightly lower, are still above the 0.5 line. These statistics suggest that Lindor is likely to maintain his hitting form in the upcoming game against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 29 June 2025 at PNC Park. The model has generated 3 game picks and 12 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks