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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Pittsburgh Pirates

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks & Predictions

Our model graded 70 markets for New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates and backs Pittsburgh Pirates hardest, a strong call, and $100 on it returns about $174.

MLB
PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug 2026, 5:35PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline -135

The model graded 70 markets for New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $174 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 9 Aug 2026, 5:35PM at PNC Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win77.1%
The price says57.5%
Best price-135
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Pittsburgh Pirates High77% chance -135
Spread Members only Lean40% chance Members
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Members only Lean42% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Members only Lean44% chance Members
Total Runs Members only High63% chance Members
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Members only High64% chance Members
Pitcher - Earned Runs × 1 prop Highup to 77% Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 7 props Highup to 82% Members
Batter - Singles × 5 props Highup to 87% Members
Batter - Hits × 4 props Highup to 88% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 8 props Highup to 88% Members
Pitcher - Walks × 2 props Highup to 78% Members
Batter - Walks × 10 props Highup to 95% Members
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 1 prop Highup to 78% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates last met on Sun 9 Aug 2026: New York Mets won 11-1. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 62,586+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Pittsburgh PiratesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Jared Young 1BOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut
  • Jonathan Pintaro RPOut
  • Christian Scott SPOut
  • Daniel Duarte RPOut
  • Robert Stock SPOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Oneil Cruz CFDay-to-day
  • Mitch Keller SPOut
  • Braxton Ashcraft SPOut
  • Esmerlyn Valdez RFOut
  • Isaac Mattson RPOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
Availability updated Oct 1, 5:19PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Sean Manaea NYM Pitcher - Earned Runs
Jared Triolo Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Brandon Lowe TBR Batter - Singles
Francisco Alvarez NYM Batter - Hits
Bryan Reynolds PIT Batter - Total Bases

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePittsburgh PiratesNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.2L5 RA3.4Home L52-3vs New York Mets L53-2

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

Run LinePittsburgh Pirates run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.2L5 RA3.4Home L52-3vs New York Mets L53-2

Pittsburgh Pirates spread form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York MetsNo line posted

Pittsburgh Pirates total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPittsburgh Pirates team totalNo line posted
3.2runs we expect
L5 RF3.2L5 RA3.4Home L52-3vs New York Mets L53-2

Pittsburgh Pirates team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent results

Pittsburgh Pirates have won 2 of their last 5 games; New York Mets have won 2 of their last 5.

Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–2DETAway
L3–4DETAway
L7–8DETAway
W2–1STLHome
L1–5STLHome
New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–6WSHAway
W7–1WSHAway
L6–7WSHAway
W7–2TEXAway
L1–3TEXAway

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Pittsburgh Pirates are scoring 1.8 runs per game (1-4) while New York Mets are at 3.6 (4-1); Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers are allowing 2.2 earned runs per game versus 1.4 for New York Mets.

1.8
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
3.6
New York Mets runs/G
Last 5 gamesPittsburgh PiratesNew York Mets
Runs / game1.83.6
Hits / game2.23.4
Home runs / game0.01.0
Walks drawn / game0.80.4
Batter K / game3.02.2
Earned runs allowed / game2.21.4
Pitching K / game1.62.2
Walks allowed / game1.21.8
L5 record1-44-1

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Pittsburgh Pirates won 2, New York Mets won 4.

DatePittsburgh PiratesNew York MetsWinner
Aug 9111New York Mets
Aug 890Pittsburgh Pirates
Aug 746New York Mets
Mar 2943Pittsburgh Pirates
Mar 2824New York Mets
Mar 26711New York Mets

Who’s out or in doubt

14 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Oneil Cruz CFDAY-TO-DAY
Mitch Keller SPOUT
Braxton Ashcraft SPOUT
Esmerlyn Valdez RFOUT
Isaac Mattson RPOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT
New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Jared Young 1BOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
Jonathan Pintaro RPOUT
Christian Scott SPOUT
Daniel Duarte RPOUT
Robert Stock SPOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates — model preview

Our New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates prediction for August 10, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 10, 2026 our model has run New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets: Under 14 Total Runs (-333), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 1 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 1 write-up for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mets vs Pirates, or as Pirates vs Mets. The most recent game between them was Sunday 9 August 2026 at PNC Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates head-to-head record

Final scores · 25 meetings on record
New York Mets 14–11 across the last 25 meetings · these games average 9.3 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Sun 9 Aug 2026, New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates: the Mets won 11-1.

DateGameScoreWinner
9 Aug 2026New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates1–11New York Mets
8 Aug 2026New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates9–0Pittsburgh Pirates
7 Aug 2026New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates4–6New York Mets
29 Mar 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets3–4Pittsburgh Pirates
28 Mar 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets4–2New York Mets
26 Mar 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets11–7New York Mets
29 Jun 2025New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates12–1Pittsburgh Pirates
28 Jun 2025New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates9–2Pittsburgh Pirates
27 Jun 2025New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates9–1Pittsburgh Pirates
14 May 2025Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets0–4Pittsburgh Pirates

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 25 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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