Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Pittsburgh Pirates

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 7:15PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug 2026, 5:35PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: New York Mets 5 (Spread)
The model graded 70 markets for New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $750 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 80.1%, fair odds 1.25, book price +650, model edge +66.8%. Tip-off Sun 9 Aug 2026, 5:35PM at PNC Park.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
New York Mets
+5
+ 19 more markets
Unlock with Pro
🔒

Unlock every graded pick for this game

See the full board for this matchup — every market, every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate.

Bet Better Unlock all game picks
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpread - 1st 5 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpread - 1st 5 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

Bet Better Unlock calibrated edges
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Juan Soto LFOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Christian Scott SP

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez CDay-to-day
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut
Availability updated Aug 10, 11:15PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 12 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability12 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Francisco Alvarez Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Sean Manaea NYM Pitcher - Earned Runs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jared Triolo Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Bubba Chandler PIT Pitcher - Hits Allowed 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Bryan Reynolds PIT Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

Unlock every player prop for this game

The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

Bet Better Unlock player props
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePittsburgh PiratesNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA3.0Home L52-3vs New York Mets L54-1

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Run LinePittsburgh Pirates run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA3.0Home L52-3vs New York Mets L54-1

Pittsburgh Pirates spread form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York MetsNo line posted

Pittsburgh Pirates total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPittsburgh Pirates team totalNo line posted
2.2runs we expect
L5 RF3.0L5 RA3.0Home L52-3vs New York Mets L54-1

Pittsburgh Pirates team total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
Unlock every pick
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent results

Pittsburgh Pirates have won 1 of their last 5 games; New York Mets have won 4 of their last 5.

Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–11NYMHome
W9–0NYMHome
L4–6NYMHome
L2–5MILAway
L2–4MILAway
New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W11–1PITAway
L0–9PITAway
W6–4PITAway
W13–6CLEAway
W6–5CLEAway

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Pittsburgh Pirates are scoring 1.6 runs per game (1-4) while New York Mets are at 3.6 (4-1); Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers are allowing 2.4 earned runs per game versus 0.8 for New York Mets.

1.6
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
3.6
New York Mets runs/G
Last 5 gamesPittsburgh PiratesNew York Mets
Runs / game1.63.6
Hits / game1.43.6
Home runs / game0.01.0
Walks drawn / game1.60.4
Batter K / game2.63.2
Earned runs allowed / game2.40.8
Pitching K / game1.82.4
Walks allowed / game1.41.6
L5 record1-44-1

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Pittsburgh Pirates won 1, New York Mets won 2.

DatePittsburgh PiratesNew York MetsWinner
Aug 9111New York Mets
Aug 890Pittsburgh Pirates
Aug 746New York Mets

Who’s out or in doubt

12 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Konnor Griffin SSOUT
Endy Rodriguez CDAY-TO-DAY
Oneil Cruz CFOUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT
New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Austin Warren RPOUT
Juan Soto LFOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

The umpire factor

Home-plate umpire: Clint Vondrak. His games average 9.5 total runs against a league average of 8.9.

9.5
Runs in his games
8.9
League average

Clint Vondrak called this game behind the plate. Across 140 games his days at the park bring a touch more scoring than most.

New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates — model preview

Our New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates prediction for August 10, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 10, 2026 our model has run New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets: Under 14 Total Runs (-333), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 1 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 1 write-up for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
Unlock the full write-up
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
5
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
09 Aug 26 Moneyline Pittsburgh Pirates ✗ MISS
09 Aug 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Pittsburgh Pirates ✗ MISS
09 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings New York Mets 8.5 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Spread New York Mets +5 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings New York Mets -3.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mets vs Pirates, or as Pirates vs Mets. The most recent game between them was Sunday 9 August 2026 at PNC Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.