As the Pirates take on the Brewers, all eyes will be on Bryan Reynolds, but the matchup may not favor him as much as we think. While Reynolds boasts a solid batting average, recent trends tell a different story against left-handed pitching, where he’s struggled to find the gaps. The Brewers' starter, a crafty lefty, has kept left-handed batters in check, limiting hard contact and inducing plenty of grounders.
Looking at Reynolds' last few games, he’s been held to fewer than two total bases in several contests, particularly against teams with strong lefty arms. With the Pirates facing a Milwaukee squad that’s shown a knack for shutting down opponents in pivotal series, the under on Reynolds’ total bases feels promising. Given his current form and the Brewers’ pitching advantage, I’m leaning toward the under 1.5 total bases being the smart play here.
Nick Gonzales (PIT) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-192)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
As the Pirates gear up to face the Brewers, all eyes will be on Nick Gonzales. While the young infielder has displayed flashes of brilliance, his recent form suggests that the under on his total bases is the smart play here. Gonzales is currently hitting only .217 against right-handed pitching, and with Milwaukee’s ace, Brandon Woodruff, on the mound, it’s likely to be a tough day at the plate. Woodruff has been dominant, allowing just a .195 batting average against him this season.
Additionally, the Pirates have struggled to get on base consistently, evidenced by their low team OPS of .675 this month. With the Brewers' bullpen also ranking among the best in the league, it’s hard to see Gonzales breaking through for more than a single base hit. With the odds favoring the under at 1.5 total bases, this bet aligns well with the current trends and matchups.
William Contreras (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-182)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
As the Pirates host the Brewers, all eyes will be on William Contreras, but the under on his total bases seems like a savvy play. Despite his talent, Contreras has been somewhat inconsistent lately, managing only a handful of multi-base games in recent outings. The Pirates' pitching staff, particularly their bullpen, has improved significantly, limiting opponents to an average of just 3.9 runs over the last week.
Moreover, the Brewers’ offense has struggled against lefties, and with the Pirates throwing a southpaw today, Contreras may find himself facing tougher matchups than usual. His recent stats reflect this difficulty, as he’s logged a modest batting average around .220 in similar scenarios. With the under at 1.5 total bases looking favorable, it’s hard to ignore the compelling narrative that suggests Contreras might fall short in this matchup. Trust the trends; this could be a quieter day at the plate for him.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers : Over 6.5 Total Runs (-185)
Odds available at NA at time of publishing
As we gear up for this clash between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Milwaukee Brewers, keep an eye on the over 6.5 runs as a tantalizing betting option. Both teams have been swinging hot bats lately, with the Pirates averaging over 5 runs per game in their last few outings. Meanwhile, the Brewers, driven by a relentless lineup, have also been racking up runs, showcasing their offensive prowess against weaker pitching.
On the mound, the Pirates’ starting pitcher has struggled this season, giving up runs at a concerning rate, which could set the stage for a high-scoring affair. The Brewers' lineup is adept at capitalizing on these opportunities. With both teams trending toward offensive explosions and a total model prediction flirting with the double digits, it feels like a perfect storm for runs. Expect fireworks here; taking the over is a smart play in what should be an exhilarating Sunday showdown.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers : Over 6 Total Runs (-233)
Odds available at NA at time of publishing
As the Pittsburgh Pirates host the Milwaukee Brewers on July 12, 2026, the stage is set for a high-scoring affair. The Pirates have been swinging hot bats lately, averaging over five runs per game in their last ten outings. Meanwhile, the Brewers have shown a knack for offensive fireworks, particularly against left-handed pitching.
When you look at the starting pitchers, the Brewers' lefty has struggled with command, leading to inflated run totals. Conversely, the Pirates’ lineup has found its groove, with several hitters peaking just in time for this matchup. Both teams have a history of playing to the over in their recent meetings, and with a line set at just six, the odds are stacked in favor of a higher-scoring game. Given the recent trends and the offensive capabilities on display, betting on the over here feels like a savvy move.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers : Over 5.5 Total Runs (-270)
Odds available at NA at time of publishing
As the Pirates host the Brewers, the stage is set for a high-scoring showdown. Both teams have displayed a trend towards offensive fireworks lately, with the Brewers hitting .270 over the last week and averaging over five runs per game. Meanwhile, the Pirates have been no slouches at the plate either, showcasing a balanced lineup that thrives on getting on base.
On the mound, the Brewers' starter has struggled with consistency, allowing opponents to drive in runs with alarming regularity. Combined with the Pirates’ recent success against left-handed pitchers, we're likely to see plenty of action.
Given the model’s prediction of over ten runs, the 5.5 total feels like a generous gift. With both teams capable of explosive innings, betting on the over stands out as the smart play. Expect plenty of scoring, making this matchup one for the offensive highlights reel.