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MLB

Chicago Cubs

Model-graded picks, player props and the edge on every market — with the full result history below.

Every pick graded — see verified results
Next Game: vs Toronto Blue Jays (Home) Thu 6 Aug, 6:20PM Wrigley Field, Chicago · Outdoor
Model updated Aug 6, 2:11PM UTC
Answer
The Chicago Cubs model is leaning Chicago Cubs on the spread in the Spread - 1st 5 Innings market vs Toronto Blue Jays.
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Today's Game Pick

Model edge
Spread - 1st 5 Innings
Chicago Cubs -0.5
Odds: +162
Model prob: 51.1%
+12.9%
Free pick — today's headline game edge

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Calibrated Edge — Game Markets

Calibrated vs fair
MarketModel output
Total Runs - 1st 1 InningsProbability, fair odds & edge locked
Spread - 1st 5 InningsProbability, fair odds & edge locked
Moneyline - 1st 5 InningsProbability, fair odds & edge locked
Total RunsProbability, fair odds & edge locked
SpreadProbability, fair odds & edge locked
MoneylineProbability, fair odds & edge locked
SpreadProbability, fair odds & edge locked

Full model-edge table — 7 game markets for this team with exact probability, fair odds and edge — is ready for subscribers.

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Availability

Roster status
Updated 5 Aug 2026, 18:20 UTC · may be stale
1B
Tyler AustinOUTinjury
RF
Matt ShawOUTinjury
RP
Ben BrownOUTinjuryDaniel PalenciaOUTinjuryEthan RobertsOUTinjuryGavin HollowellOUTinjuryHoby MilnerOUTinjuryHunter HarveyOUTinjuryPhil MatonOUTinjuryPorter HodgeOUTinjuryRiley MartinOUTinjuryShelby MillerOUTinjury
SP
Cade HortonOUTinjuryClay HolmesOUTinjuryEdward CabreraOUTinjuryJustin SteeleOUTinjury

Weather & Venue Context

Conditions
Ballpark conditions (temperature, wind direction and roof state) can move MLB run totals, and matter most in open-air parks with strong prevailing winds.
Per-game ballpark weather is pending a file→table persistence job (owner). No live park weather is shown here until that data is in the database.

Model Performance History

All results →
0
Total Picks
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Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateOpponentMarketPickResult

Betting angles

3 markets live
Total RunsGame total · Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue JaysOver 9 +163
9.0proj. runs
L5 RF5.0L5 RA1.8Home L54-1

Chicago Cubs total runs vs Toronto Blue Jays is live and our model makes it 50% (LONG-SHOT); proj. runs 9.0.

Run LineChicago Cubs run line-3 +463
+0.1proj. margin
L5 RF5.0L5 RA1.8Home L54-1Free board12-10

Chicago Cubs spread vs Toronto Blue Jays is live and our model makes it 29% (LONG-SHOT); proj. margin +0.1.

MoneylineChicago Cubs to win+114
57%model win %
4-1L5 record
L5 RF5.0L5 RA1.8Home L54-1Free board10-10

Chicago Cubs moneyline vs Toronto Blue Jays is live and our model makes it 57% (LEAN); L5 record 4-1.

Team Total RunsChicago Cubs team totalNo line posted
5.0L5 runs/gm
L5 RF5.0L5 RA1.8Home L54-1

Chicago Cubs team total runs form: last five 4-1, 5.0 runs/gm.

Recent form (last 5 games)

Chicago Cubs have gone 4-1 over their last 5 games, averaging 5.0 runs and 5.0 hits per game while allowing 1.8 earned runs.

4-1
Last 5
5.0
Runs / G
5.0
Hits / G
1.4
HR / G
3.8
RBI / G
1.8
ER Allowed / G
3.4
Ks / G

About This Team

Chicago Cubs are tracked by the Bet Better model across MLB games. Their next game is against Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday 6 August at Wrigley Field. Use the data above to inform your MLB betting decisions for Chicago Cubs.

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