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MLB

Chicago Cubs

Model-graded picks, player props and the edge on every market — with the full result history below.

Every pick graded — see verified results
Next Game: vs Minnesota Twins (Home) Sat 18 Jul, 12:05AM Wrigley Field, Chicago · Outdoor
Model updated Jul 17, 7:57AM UTC
Answer
The Chicago Cubs model is leaning Chicago Cubs in the Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings market vs Minnesota Twins.
exact probability, edge and line unlock with a subscription.

Today's Game Pick

Model edge
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings
Chicago Cubs
Odds: -139
Model prob: 64.5%
+6.4%
Free pick — today's headline game edge

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Calibrated Edge — Game Markets

Calibrated vs fair
MarketModel output
Spread - 1st 5 InningsProbability, fair odds & edge locked
Moneyline - 1st 5 InningsProbability, fair odds & edge locked
MoneylineProbability, fair odds & edge locked
Total RunsProbability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Runs - 1st 1 InningsProbability, fair odds & edge locked
SpreadProbability, fair odds & edge locked

Full model-edge table — 6 game markets for this team with exact probability, fair odds and edge — is ready for subscribers.

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Availability

Roster status
Updated 15 Jul 2026, 12:50 UTC · may be stale
1B
Tyler AustinOUTinjury
RF
Matt ShawOUTinjury
RP
Ben BrownOUTinjuryDaniel PalenciaOUTinjuryEthan RobertsOUTinjuryHoby MilnerOUTinjuryHunter HarveyOUTinjuryPorter HodgeOUTinjuryRiley MartinOUTinjuryShelby MillerOUTinjury
SP
Cade HortonOUTinjuryEdward CabreraOUTinjuryJameson TaillonOUTinjuryJustin SteeleOUTinjury

Weather & Venue Context

Conditions
Ballpark conditions (temperature, wind direction and roof state) can move MLB run totals, and matter most in open-air parks with strong prevailing winds.
Per-game ballpark weather is pending a file→table persistence job (owner). No live park weather is shown here until that data is in the database.

Model Performance History

All results →
3
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate
DateOpponentMarketPickResult
12 Jul 26 Cincinnati Reds Total Runs Under 6 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Cincinnati Reds Moneyline Cincinnati Reds ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Cincinnati Reds Spread Cincinnati Reds -2 ✗ MISS

Betting angles

3 markets live
MoneylineMinnesota Twins favored (model)+118+5.0% edge
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.4L5 RA2.0Home L53-2Win rec5-7

Chicago Cubs moneyline vs Minnesota Twins is live and a +5.0% model edge; L5 record 4-1.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota TwinsUnder 14.5 -435+3.2% edge
85%under %
10.1proj. runs
L5 RF4.4L5 RA2.0Home L53-2O/U8-4

Chicago Cubs total runs vs Minnesota Twins is live with a model 85% read and a +3.2% model edge; proj. runs 10.1.

Run LineChicago Cubs run line-2.5 +230+1.6% edge
+0.3proj. margin
L5 RF4.4L5 RA2.0Home L53-2ATS7-6

Chicago Cubs spread vs Minnesota Twins is live with a model 32% read and a +1.6% model edge; proj. margin +0.3.

Team Total RunsChicago Cubs team totalNo line posted
4.4L5 runs/gm
L5 RF4.4L5 RA2.0Home L53-2

Chicago Cubs team total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.4 runs/gm.

Recent form (last 5 games)

Chicago Cubs have gone 4-1 over their last 5 games, averaging 4.4 runs and 5.4 hits per game while allowing 2.0 earned runs.

4-1
Last 5
4.4
Runs / G
5.4
Hits / G
1.0
HR / G
2.6
RBI / G
2.0
ER Allowed / G
2.0
Ks / G

About This Team

Chicago Cubs are tracked by the Bet Better model across MLB games. Their next game is against Minnesota Twins on Saturday 18 July at Wrigley Field. Use the data above to inform your MLB betting decisions for Chicago Cubs.