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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
New York Yankees

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 19, 3:12AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC)
Outdoor
Wed 22 Jul 2026, 5:05PM
20
Game markets graded
15
Props graded
66.7%
Historical Hit Rate
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: New York Yankees -3.5 (Spread)
The model graded 35 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $420 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 66.7% across 27 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 32.8%, fair odds 3.05, book price +320, model edge +9.0%. Tip-off Wed 22 Jul 2026, 5:05PM at Yankee Stadium.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 754 of 1,520 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 17
Under 5
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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
New York Yankees
-1.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut
  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut

Probable pitcher

Braxton Ashcraft SP

New York Yankees

  • Max Fried SPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut
  • Cody Bellinger LFOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Kervin Castro RPOut

Probable pitcher

Carlos Rodon SP
Availability updated Aug 18, 10:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 10 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability10 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Ben Rice NYY Batter - Total Bases
Austin Wells NYY Batter - Hits
Trent Grisham SDP Batter - Total Bases
Paul Goldschmidt STL Batter - Total Bases
Tyler Callihan Batter - Hits

+ 15 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York YankeesNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF0.6L5 RA0.4Home L52-3vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

New York Yankees moneyline form: last five 1-4, 0.6 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Yankees run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF0.6L5 RA0.4Home L52-3vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

New York Yankees spread form: last five 1-4, 0.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

New York Yankees total runs form: last five 1-4, 0.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Yankees team totalNo line posted
0.8runs we expect
L5 RF0.6L5 RA0.4Home L52-3vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

New York Yankees team total runs form: last five 1-4, 0.6 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees — what the model found

Our model graded 35 betting markets for Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees — 20 on the game itself and 15 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
15
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 35 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees — recent results

New York Yankees have won 2 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Pirates have won 3 of their last 5.

New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–3TORAway
L1–4TORAway
L1–3TORAway
L0–1SEAHome
W10–5SEAHome
Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L5–8DETHome
W8–3BOSHome
L0–4BOSHome
W8–4BOSHome
W13–1MIAAway

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Yankees are scoring 3.8 runs per game (3-2) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 8.6 (4-1); New York Yankees pitchers are allowing 3.4 earned runs per game versus 2.4 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

3.8
New York Yankees runs/G
8.6
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York YankeesPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game3.88.6
Hits / game5.29.8
Home runs / game0.81.6
Walks drawn / game1.41.2
Batter K / game4.66.4
Earned runs allowed / game3.42.4
Pitching K / game5.07.4
Walks allowed / game4.01.2
L5 record3-24-1

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: New York Yankees won 2, Pittsburgh Pirates won 1.

DateNew York YankeesPittsburgh PiratesWinner
Jul 2220New York Yankees
Jul 2235Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 2085New York Yankees

Who’s out or in doubt

10 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
Max Fried SPOUT
Aaron Judge RFOUT
Cody Bellinger LFOUT
Clarke Schmidt SPOUT
Giancarlo Stanton DHOUT
Kervin Castro RPOUT
Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Endy Rodriguez COUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT
Konnor Griffin SSOUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees — model preview

Deep dive into New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates stats and odds.

New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Under 9 Total Runs (+101)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the New York Yankees take on the Pittsburgh Pirates, the matchup has all the makings of a low-scoring affair. The Yankees’ offense has sputtered recently, managing only 3.8 runs per game over their last ten outings, while striking out a staggering 26% of the time. Meanwhile, the Pirates have struggled to find their rhythm at the plate, averaging just 4.2 runs and showcasing an anemic on-base percentage that’s well below league average. On the mound, the Yankees’ ace has been sharp, boasting a sub-3.00 ERA in his last few starts, effectively silencing opposing bats. The Pirates' starter isn’t far behind, with a solid WHIP that keeps runners at bay. With both teams trending toward the under and the Yankees playing at home, expect a tightly contested game where runs come at a premium, making the ‘Under 9’ a compelling play.

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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
27
Total Picks
66.7%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
22 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 9 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Spread New York Yankees -1.5 ✗ MISS
22 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 8.5 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Moneyline New York Yankees ✗ MISS
20 Jul 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 9 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 10 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 10.5 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 11.5 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 12 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 7 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 6.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Pirates vs Yankees, or as Yankees vs Pirates. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 22 July 2026 at Yankee Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 15 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 66.7% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 3 meetings
New York Yankees 2–1 across the last 3 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
22 Jul 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees3–5Pittsburgh Pirates
22 Jul 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees2–0New York Yankees
20 Jul 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees8–5New York Yankees
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