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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
New York Yankees

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 4:32AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC)
Outdoor
Wed 22 Jul 2026, 5:05PM
20
Game markets graded
15
Props graded
66.7%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
New York Yankees -2.5 Spread +220

The model graded 35 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $320 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 66.7% across 27 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 22 Jul 2026, 5:05PM at Yankee Stadium.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win40.2%
The price says31.3%
Best price+220
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread New York Yankees -2.5 Lean40% chance +220
Spread Long-shot26% chance
Total Runs Lean57% chance
Spread Lean44% chance
Spread Long-shot23% chance
Spread Long-shot20% chance
Spread Long-shot15% chance
Spread Lean49% chance
Total Runs Lean53% chance
Batter - Total Bases × 7 props Highup to 90%
Batter - Hits × 5 props Highup to 88%
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 3 props Highup to 99%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
New York Yankees
-1.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut

Probable pitcher

Lake Bachar SP

New York Yankees

  • George Lombard Jr. SSDay-to-day
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Ryan McMahon 3BOut
  • Fernando Cruz RPOut
  • Kervin Castro RPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Ryan Weathers SPOut

Probable pitcher

Carlos Rodon SP
Max Fried SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 12:30AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 12 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability12 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Ben Rice NYY Batter - Total Bases
Austin Wells NYY Batter - Hits
Trent Grisham SDP Batter - Total Bases
Paul Goldschmidt STL Batter - Total Bases
Tyler Callihan Batter - Hits

+ 15 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York YankeesNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.4L5 RA0.4Home L52-3vs Pittsburgh Pirates L51-4Free board17-17

New York Yankees moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.4 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Yankees run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.4L5 RA0.4Home L52-3vs Pittsburgh Pirates L51-4

New York Yankees spread form: last five 2-3, 1.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

New York Yankees total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Yankees team totalNo line posted
1.0runs we expect
L5 RF1.4L5 RA0.4Home L52-3vs Pittsburgh Pirates L51-4

New York Yankees team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.4 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees — what the model found

Our model graded 35 betting markets for Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees — 20 on the game itself and 15 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
15
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 35 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees — recent results

New York Yankees have won 3 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Pirates have won 3 of their last 5.

New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W9–2BOSHome
L0–6BOSHome
W1–0BOSHome
L1–5HOUHome
W9–3HOUHome
Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–4STLAway
W6–2STLAway
W1–0SDAway
L0–3SDAway
W3–2SDAway

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Yankees are scoring 3.8 runs per game (3-2) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 8.6 (4-1); New York Yankees pitchers are allowing 3.4 earned runs per game versus 2.4 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

3.8
New York Yankees runs/G
8.6
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York YankeesPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game3.88.6
Hits / game5.29.8
Home runs / game0.81.6
Walks drawn / game1.41.2
Batter K / game4.66.4
Earned runs allowed / game3.42.4
Pitching K / game5.07.4
Walks allowed / game4.01.2
L5 record3-24-1

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees — recent meetings

These two have met 5 times recently: New York Yankees won 3, Pittsburgh Pirates won 2.

DateNew York YankeesPittsburgh PiratesWinner
Jul 2235Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 2220New York Yankees
Jul 2085New York Yankees
Mar 935Pittsburgh Pirates
Feb 2362New York Yankees

Who’s out or in doubt

12 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
George Lombard Jr. SSDAY-TO-DAY
Clarke Schmidt SPOUT
Ryan McMahon 3BOUT
Fernando Cruz RPOUT
Kervin Castro RPOUT
Aaron Judge RFOUT
Giancarlo Stanton DHOUT
Ryan Weathers SPOUT
Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Konnor Griffin SSOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees — model preview

Deep dive into New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates stats and odds.

New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Under 9 Total Runs (+101)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the New York Yankees take on the Pittsburgh Pirates, the matchup has all the makings of a low-scoring affair. The Yankees’ offense has sputtered recently, managing only 3.8 runs per game over their last ten outings, while striking out a staggering 26% of the time. Meanwhile, the Pirates have struggled to find their rhythm at the plate, averaging just 4.2 runs and showcasing an anemic on-base percentage that’s well below league average. On the mound, the Yankees’ ace has been sharp, boasting a sub-3.00 ERA in his last few starts, effectively silencing opposing bats. The Pirates' starter isn’t far behind, with a solid WHIP that keeps runners at bay. With both teams trending toward the under and the Yankees playing at home, expect a tightly contested game where runs come at a premium, making the ‘Under 9’ a compelling play.

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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
27
Total Picks
66.7%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
22 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 9 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Spread New York Yankees -1.5 ✗ MISS
22 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 8.5 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Moneyline New York Yankees ✗ MISS
20 Jul 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 9 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 10 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 10.5 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 11.5 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 12 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 7 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 6.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Pirates vs Yankees, or as Yankees vs Pirates. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 22 July 2026 at Yankee Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 15 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 66.7% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 23 meetings on record
New York Yankees 12–11 across the last 23 meetings · these games average 9.6 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
22 Jul 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees3–5Pittsburgh Pirates
20 Jul 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees8–5New York Yankees
9 Mar 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees3–5Pittsburgh Pirates
23 Feb 2026New York Yankees @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–6New York Yankees
6 Apr 2025New York Yankees @ Pittsburgh Pirates5–4Pittsburgh Pirates
5 Apr 2025New York Yankees @ Pittsburgh Pirates4–10New York Yankees
4 Apr 2025New York Yankees @ Pittsburgh Pirates4–9New York Yankees
16 Mar 2025Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees3–4Pittsburgh Pirates
11 Mar 2025New York Yankees @ Pittsburgh Pirates9–1Pittsburgh Pirates
3 Mar 2025Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees12–3New York Yankees

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 23 meetings on file.

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