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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
New York Yankees

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 1:14AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC)
Outdoor
Wed 22 Jul 2026, 5:05PM
20
Game Picks
15
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 0.5 (Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings)
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees (MLB), model win probability 64.4%, fair odds 1.55, book price -115, model edge +10.9%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Wed 22 Jul 2026, 5:05PM at Yankee Stadium.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 498 of 903 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 8
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings
Over
0.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Endy Rodriguez CDay-to-day
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut
  • Konnor Griffin SSOut

Probable pitcher

Jared Jones SP

New York Yankees

  • Cody Bellinger LFOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Carlos Rodon SPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut

Probable pitcher

Cam Schlittler SP
Availability updated Aug 9, 5:35PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 10 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability10 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Ben Rice NYY Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Austin Wells NYY Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Trent Grisham SDP Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Paul Goldschmidt STL Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Tyler Callihan Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York YankeesNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA1.4Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

New York Yankees moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Yankees run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA1.4Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

New York Yankees spread form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

New York Yankees total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Yankees team totalNo line posted
2.1runs we expect
L5 RF1.2L5 RA1.4Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

New York Yankees team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Yankees are scoring 3.8 runs per game (3-2) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 8.6 (4-1); New York Yankees pitchers are allowing 3.4 earned runs per game versus 2.4 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

3.8
New York Yankees runs/G
8.6
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York YankeesPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game3.88.6
Hits / game5.29.8
Home runs / game0.81.6
Walks drawn / game1.41.2
Batter K / game4.66.4
Earned runs allowed / game3.42.4
Pitching K / game5.07.4
Walks allowed / game4.01.2
L5 record3-24-1

Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees — model preview

<p>Deep dive into New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates stats and odds.</p>

New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Under 9 Total Runs (+101)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the New York Yankees take on the Pittsburgh Pirates, the matchup has all the makings of a low-scoring affair. The Yankees’ offense has sputtered recently, managing only 3.8 runs per game over their last ten outings, while striking out a staggering 26% of the time. Meanwhile, the Pirates have struggled to find their rhythm at the plate, averaging just 4.2 runs and showcasing an anemic on-base percentage that’s well below league average. On the mound, the Yankees’ ace has been sharp, boasting a sub-3.00 ERA in his last few starts, effectively silencing opposing bats. The Pirates' starter isn’t far behind, with a solid WHIP that keeps runners at bay. With both teams trending toward the under and the Yankees playing at home, expect a tightly contested game where runs come at a premium, making the ‘Under 9’ a compelling play.

New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates : New York Yankees -1.5 (+120)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Yankees gear up to face the Pirates, the New York lineup is brimming with confidence, riding a wave of recent success. They've been tearing through opposing pitching, showcasing their power with an impressive .270 team batting average and a knack for scoring early. Their offense has been particularly potent at Yankee Stadium, where the energy fuels their performance. On the mound, the Yankees benefit from a strong starter, who has consistently held opponents to low run totals. Meanwhile, the Pirates have struggled on the road, particularly against teams with playoff aspirations. Their offense has faltered, averaging just over three runs per game away from home, and their recent struggles against left-handed pitching could spell trouble. With the Yankees looking to solidify their playoff positioning, a victory by at least two runs feels like a compelling wager. The combination of their offensive firepower and solid pitching gives them the edge, making the -1.5 run line a savvy choice.

New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Under 8.5 Total Runs (+100)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Yankees host the Pirates on July 22, there's a compelling case for taking the 'Under 8.5' total runs. The Yankees have been showing flashes of brilliance offensively but have also struggled with consistency, particularly against left-handed pitchers. With Pittsburgh likely rolling out a southpaw, we can expect the Yankees to face challenges in stringing together runs. Meanwhile, the Pirates’ offense has been quiet lately, averaging under four runs per game in their last stretch. Their reliance on timely hitting rather than sustained offense makes them vulnerable in this matchup. On the mound, both teams have been solid; the Yankees' pitchers have kept opponents in check at home, while the Pirates' staff has shown a knack for limiting damage. Given these trends, it's easy to see why this game could lean toward a lower-scoring affair, making the 'Under' a sound play in what could be a tactical battle on the diamond.

New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates : New York Yankees Win (-161)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Pirates roll into the Bronx, the Yankees are looking to capitalize on their recent surge. New York has shown impressive form, boasting a potent offense that ranks among the league leaders in runs. They've been particularly effective at home, where the energy of Yankee Stadium often plays in their favor, allowing them to dominate lesser opponents like Pittsburgh. On the pitching side, the Yankees have a clear advantage with a staff that has consistently kept opponents in check. Their starter has been particularly effective against left-handed hitters, which is crucial since the Pirates' lineup leans heavily that way. Recent matchups reveal the Yankees have clobbered the Pirates in past meetings, and with Pittsburgh struggling to string together wins, the Yankees seem poised to extend their dominance. Betting on the Yankees to take this one feels not just safe, but like a smart play as they look to solidify their playoff hopes.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
4
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
22 Jul 26 Moneyline New York Yankees ✗ MISS
22 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 9 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Spread New York Yankees -1.5 ✗ MISS
22 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 8.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Pirates vs Yankees, or as Yankees vs Pirates. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 22 July 2026 at Yankee Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 15 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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