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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
New York Yankees

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 20, 10:35PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC)
Outdoor
Mon 20 Jul 2026, 11:05PM
20
Game Picks
5
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Pittsburgh Pirates -3.5 (Spread)
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees (MLB), model win probability 28.5%, fair odds 3.51, book price +450, model edge +10.3%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Mon 20 Jul 2026, 11:05PM at Yankee Stadium.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Pittsburgh Pirates
-1.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpread - 1st 5 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market sharpened toward Pittsburgh Pirates on this game.

Line movement

▲ moved toward Pittsburgh Pirates
Exact move size 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Spencer Horwitz 1BOut
  • Evan Sisk RPOut
  • Chris Devenski RPOut

Probable pitcher

Paul Skenes SP

New York Yankees

  • Carlos Rodon SPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Max Fried SPOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut

Probable pitcher

Cam Schlittler SP
Ryan Yarbrough SP
Availability updated Jul 19, 11:20PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 11 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability11 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Jake Mangum TBR Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jake Mangum TBR Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Trent Grisham SDP Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Bryan Reynolds PIT Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nick Gonzales Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

3 markets live
Total RunsGame total · New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh PiratesOver 9 +141+17.2% edge
59%over %
10.0proj. runs
L5 RF3.0L5 RA3.4Home L52-3vs Pittsburgh Pirates L54-1O/U10-14

New York Yankees total runs vs Pittsburgh Pirates is live with a model 59% read and a +17.2% model edge; proj. runs 10.0.

Run LinePittsburgh Pirates run line-3.5 +450+10.3% edge
-0.6proj. margin
L5 RF9.6L5 RA3.0Away L55-0vs New York Yankees L53-2ATS6-7

Pittsburgh Pirates spread vs New York Yankees is live with a model 29% read and a +10.3% model edge; proj. margin -0.6.

MoneylinePittsburgh Pirates to win+110+4.2% edge
52%model win %
5-0L5 record
L5 RF9.6L5 RA3.0Away L55-0vs New York Yankees L53-2Win rec6-6

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline vs New York Yankees is live with a model 52% read and a +4.2% model edge; L5 record 5-0.

Team Total RunsNew York Yankees team totalNo line posted
3.0implied team total
L5 RF3.0L5 RA3.4Home L52-3vs Pittsburgh Pirates L54-1

New York Yankees team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Yankees are scoring 3.0 runs per game (3-2) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 9.6 (5-0); New York Yankees pitchers are allowing 3.4 earned runs per game versus 3.0 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

3.0
New York Yankees runs/G
9.6
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York YankeesPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game3.09.6
Hits / game5.210.6
Home runs / game1.02.2
Walks drawn / game1.81.4
Batter K / game4.46.4
Earned runs allowed / game3.43.0
Pitching K / game5.47.8
Walks allowed / game4.22.6
L5 record3-25-0

Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees — model preview

<p>Latest MLB betting preview: New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Nick Gonzales. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates stats and odds.</p>

New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Over 5.5 Total Runs (-303)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Yankees prepare to host the Pirates on July 20, it feels like the perfect storm for runs. New York's lineup has been a hitting juggernaut lately, consistently racking up runs with a dangerous blend of power and contact. Meanwhile, the Pirates have struggled to contain opposing offenses, often leaving their pitchers exposed to big innings. With an implied probability of 75.2% on the over, it’s clear that the oddsmakers anticipate a scoring frenzy. The Yankees have a knack for exploiting weak pitching, and facing a struggling Pirates rotation could spell trouble. Furthermore, recent trends show both teams combining for high-scoring affairs, bolstering the case for an explosive game. Given the Yankees' offensive firepower and the Pirates’ defensive vulnerabilities, the over 5.5 runs seems not just likely, but almost inevitable. Buckle up for a game that promises to deliver plenty of action at the plate!

Nick Gonzales (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-179)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

When the Yankees host the Pirates, all eyes will be on Nick Gonzales. While he’s shown flashes of brilliance, his recent performance tells a different story. Facing a Yankees pitching staff that’s been stingy at home, Gonzales might struggle to find his rhythm. The lefty’s numbers against right-handed pitchers are less than stellar, and with the Yankees’ ace on the mound, that’s a daunting challenge. Moreover, Gonzales has managed to reach 1.5 total bases only twice in his last ten games, which raises some red flags about his current form. The Yankees’ defense is particularly adept at limiting opposing bats, so even if Gonzales gets on base, the likelihood of him turning that into multiple total bases seems slim. All things considered, taking the under on Gonzales’ total bases feels like a wise move in what could be a low-scoring affair.

New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Over 6 Total Runs (-270)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Yankees prepare to host the Pirates, the stage is set for a high-scoring affair. The Yankees have been on a tear at the plate, consistently lighting up opposing pitchers with their powerful lineup. With a batting average hovering around .270 in their last series, they’re not just making contact; they’re driving runs in with authority. On the flip side, the Pirates have shown vulnerabilities in their rotation, particularly against teams boasting strong offensive firepower. Their starters have struggled to keep the ball in the park, which bodes well for a Yankees squad eager to capitalize. Given that the model predicts nearly 10 runs, it feels like we’re in for a slugfest. With the Yankees’ recent offensive surge, coupled with the Pirates’ pitching woes, betting on the total runs to soar over 6 seems not just sensible, but almost inevitable. Grab your popcorn; this one’s likely to be a home run derby!

New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+182)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Yankees host the Pirates, there's a compelling case for backing Pittsburgh on the alternative run line. The Pirates have been a surprisingly resilient squad, showcasing an impressive recent surge that includes key victories over tougher opponents. With their lineup heating up, Pittsburgh’s hitters are finding gaps and turning opportunities into runs, which could spell trouble for a Yankees pitching staff that's been inconsistent lately. Moreover, the Yankees' home dominance has waned, and facing the Pirates’ emerging ace, who has shown flashes of brilliance against lineups like New York’s, might just tilt the scales. The model suggests that Pittsburgh has a solid edge here, and with the Pirates playing with confidence, it's feasible they could outpace the Yankees by more than a run. This matchup could be the perfect storm for a spirited Pirates team ready to steal the show in the Bronx.

New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+168)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Pirates roll into the Bronx, they’re not just hoping to put a dent in the Yankees’ armor; they’re riding a wave of momentum that might just carry them over the run line. Pittsburgh has been impressive lately, especially against left-handed pitching, where they’ve found their groove—banging out hits and scoring runs at an elevated clip. Meanwhile, the Yankees have struggled with consistency, particularly at home, where their lineup has faltered against quality pitching. With the Pirates’ emerging stars stepping up and a solid rotation that can keep the Yankee bats in check, it's a ripe opportunity. Given the Pirates’ recent form and the Yankees' home struggles, laying the -1.5 on Pittsburgh feels like a savvy play. If they can keep the pressure on early, this could quickly turn into a game where they not only cover the spread but make a statement in the process.

New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates : New York Yankees -0.5 (+125)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Yankees face off against the Pirates, the stage is set for a compelling showdown. New York has been riding a wave of momentum lately, showcasing a potent offense that's averaged over five runs per game in their last ten outings. With their lineup brimming with hitters capable of driving the ball hard, we could see them capitalize on any mistakes from the Pirates’ pitching staff, who have struggled with consistency this season. On the mound, the Yankees' starter brings a strikeout rate that ranks among the best in the league, which could spell trouble for a Pirates lineup that has been prone to swinging and missing under pressure. The recent trend favors the Yankees, who have not only won their last few games but have also demonstrated a knack for winning close contests at home. With the line set at just -0.5, it feels like a prime opportunity for New York to edge out a victory and keep their winning streak alive.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
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Total Picks
Hit Rate

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Monday 20 July 2026 at Yankee Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 5 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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