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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
Chicago Cubs

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 8:29PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Wrigley Field, Chicago
Outdoor
Sat 11 Apr 2026, 6:20PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Over 6.5 (Total Runs)
The model graded 20 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $183 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 88.8%, fair odds 1.13, book price -120, model edge +34.2%. Tip-off Sat 11 Apr 2026, 6:20PM at Wrigley Field.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Runs
Over
5.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez CDay-to-day
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut

Chicago Cubs

  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Matt Shaw RFOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Daniel Palencia RPOut
  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Gavin Hollowell RPOut
  • Hoby Milner RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut
Availability updated Aug 10, 2:35AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineChicago CubsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.4L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2Free board12-8

Chicago Cubs moneyline form: last five 3-2, 4.4 runs/gm.

Run LineChicago Cubs run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.4L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2Free board13-9

Chicago Cubs spread form: last five 3-2, 4.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

Chicago Cubs total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsChicago Cubs team totalNo line posted
3.7runs we expect
L5 RF4.4L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

Chicago Cubs team total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.4 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs — recent results

Chicago Cubs have won 4 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Pirates have won 1 of their last 5.

Chicago Cubs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W10–2KCAway
W6–4KCAway
L3–6KCAway
W3–2TORHome
W5–1LADHome
Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–11NYMHome
W9–0NYMHome
L4–6NYMHome
L2–5MILAway
L2–4MILAway

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Chicago Cubs are scoring 6.8 runs per game (3-2) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 4.2 (2-3); Chicago Cubs pitchers are allowing 3.6 earned runs per game versus 3.6 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

6.8
Chicago Cubs runs/G
4.2
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesChicago CubsPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game6.84.2
Hits / game10.610.2
Home runs / game2.21.0
Walks drawn / game2.44.2
Batter K / game9.28.8
Earned runs allowed / game3.63.6
Pitching K / game8.05.6
Walks allowed / game3.82.4
L5 record3-22-3

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Chicago Cubs won 2, Pittsburgh Pirates won 1.

DateChicago CubsPittsburgh PiratesWinner
Jul 2678Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 25110Chicago Cubs
Jul 2432Chicago Cubs

Who’s out or in doubt

19 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Chicago Cubs
PlayerStatus
Shelby Miller RPOUT
Riley Martin RPOUT
Phil Maton RPOUT
Matt Shaw RFOUT
Hunter Harvey RPOUT
Daniel Palencia RPOUT
Edward Cabrera SPOUT
Ben Brown RPOUT
Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Konnor Griffin SSOUT
Endy Rodriguez CDAY-TO-DAY
Oneil Cruz CFOUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates stats and odds.

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Chicago Cubs -1 (+102)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

🔒 The other 3 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Pirates vs Cubs, or as Cubs vs Pirates. The most recent game between them was Saturday 11 April 2026 at Wrigley Field. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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