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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
Chicago Cubs

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 2:07PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Wrigley Field, Chicago
Outdoor
Sat 11 Apr 2026, 6:20PM
20
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Chicago Cubs -3 (Spread)
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs (MLB), model win probability 35.2%, fair odds 2.84, book price +319, model edge +11.3%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 11 Apr 2026, 6:20PM at Wrigley Field.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Chicago Cubs
-1.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Spencer Horwitz 1BOut
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Evan Sisk RPOut
  • Chris Devenski RPOut

Probable pitcher

Braxton Ashcraft SP

Chicago Cubs

  • Trent Thornton RPDay-to-day
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Ethan Roberts RPOut
  • Matt Shaw RFOut
  • Daniel Palencia RPOut
  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Hoby Milner RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Jameson Taillon SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 3:47AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 21 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability21 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineChicago CubsNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF6.0L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2Win rec5-8

Chicago Cubs moneyline form: last five 4-1, 6.0 runs/gm.

Run LineChicago Cubs run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF6.0L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2ATS8-7

Chicago Cubs spread form: last five 4-1, 6.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

Chicago Cubs total runs form: last five 4-1, 6.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsChicago Cubs team totalNo line posted
4.2implied team total
L5 RF6.0L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

Chicago Cubs team total runs form: last five 4-1, 6.0 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Chicago Cubs are scoring 6.8 runs per game (3-2) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 4.2 (2-3); Chicago Cubs pitchers are allowing 3.6 earned runs per game versus 3.6 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

6.8
Chicago Cubs runs/G
4.2
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesChicago CubsPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game6.84.2
Hits / game10.610.2
Home runs / game2.21.0
Walks drawn / game2.44.2
Batter K / game9.28.8
Earned runs allowed / game3.63.6
Pitching K / game8.05.6
Walks allowed / game3.82.4
L5 record3-22-3

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs — model preview

<p>Latest MLB betting preview: Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates stats and odds.</p>

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Chicago Cubs -1 (+102)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Chicago Cubs +1 (-208)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-256)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Chicago Cubs Win (-143)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
4
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
11 Apr 26 Moneyline Chicago Cubs ✗ MISS
11 Apr 26 Spread Chicago Cubs -1.5 ✗ MISS
11 Apr 26 Spread Chicago Cubs -3 ✗ MISS
11 Apr 26 Spread Chicago Cubs -2 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026 at Wrigley Field. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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