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Model picks & player props
Boston Red Sox
VS
Pittsburgh Pirates

Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 13, 11:18PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Outdoor
Fri 14 Aug 2026, 10:40PM
4
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Pittsburgh Pirates (Moneyline)
The model graded 4 markets for Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $223 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 49.3%, fair odds 2.03, book price +123, model edge +4.4%. Tip-off Fri 14 Aug 2026, 10:40PM at PNC Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 629 of 1,212 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 13
Under 5.5
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $359
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates
+ 3 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Pittsburgh PiratesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Over on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Over
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Hardrockbet Oh
on Pittsburgh Pirates
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Boston Red Sox

  • Garrett Whitlock RPOut
  • Roman Anthony LFOut
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Trevor Story SSOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Curtis Mead 3BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut

Probable pitcher

Payton Tolle SP

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut

Probable pitcher

Braxton Ashcraft SP
Availability updated Aug 13, 7:07PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

3 markets live
MoneylinePittsburgh Pirates to win+123
2-3L5 record
L5 RF4.0L5 RA2.2Home L51-4vs Boston Red Sox L53-2

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline vs Boston Red Sox is live and our model makes it 49% (LONG-SHOT); L5 record 2-3.

Total RunsGame total · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red SoxUnder 8 -102
54%under %
7.5proj. runs
L5 RF4.0L5 RA2.2Home L51-4vs Boston Red Sox L53-2Free board15-13

Pittsburgh Pirates total runs vs Boston Red Sox is live and our model makes it 54% (LEAN); proj. runs 7.5.

Run LinePittsburgh Pirates run line+1.5 -135
59%cover %
-0.4proj. margin
L5 RF4.0L5 RA2.2Home L51-4vs Boston Red Sox L53-2

Pittsburgh Pirates spread vs Boston Red Sox is live and our model makes it 59% (LEAN); proj. margin -0.4.

Team Total RunsPittsburgh Pirates team totalNo line posted
2.3runs we expect
L5 RF4.0L5 RA2.2Home L51-4vs Boston Red Sox L53-2

Pittsburgh Pirates team total runs form: last five 2-3, 4.0 runs/gm.

Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates — what the model found

Our model graded 4 betting markets for Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates — 4 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

4
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 4 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 3 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent results

Pittsburgh Pirates have won 1 of their last 5 games; Boston Red Sox have won 0 of their last 5.

Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–8MIAAway
L0–2MIAAway
L1–11NYMHome
W9–0NYMHome
L4–6NYMHome
Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–6TORAway
L3–5TORAway
L1–2TORAway
L3–4ATHHome
L3–7ATHHome

Who’s out or in doubt

16 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Endy Rodriguez COUT
Konnor Griffin SSOUT
Oneil Cruz CFOUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT
Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Garrett Whitlock RPOUT
Roman Anthony LFOUT
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOUT
Triston Casas 1BOUT
Trevor Story SSOUT
Garrett Crochet SPOUT
Curtis Mead 3BOUT
Zack Kelly RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates — where the money went

Since betting opened on Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates, the market has moved away from Over across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Total Points — Over 8▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Under 8▲ Money came for this
Spread — Pittsburgh Pirates 1▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Boston Red Sox -1▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Over 8.5▼ Money drifted off this
Moneyline — Pittsburgh Pirates▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Under 8.5▲ Money came for this
Moneyline — Boston Red Sox▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates — model preview

Our Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates prediction for August 14, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 14, 2026 our model has run Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox: Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (-135), which we rate LEAN confidence. We walk through all 2 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Sox vs Pirates, or as Pirates vs Sox. The next scheduled game is Friday 14 August 2026 at PNC Park. The model has generated 4 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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