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MLB

Matt Shaw

MLB

Value call

Matt Shaw has one live pick today: over 1.5 total bases that pays $345 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LONG-SHOT
How often this wins
23 in 100
Predicted
1.2 total bases
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 23.4% · before adjusting for past results 32.6% · the book's price implies 29.0% · gap -5.6%.

Latest Model PickFree
Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres
Petco Park, San Diego, California · Outdoor
Wed 30 Sep, 10:00 PM ET
Matt Shaw
over 1.5 total bases
Batter - Total Bases Over 1.5 +245 (3.45) · $100→$345
Value call
LONG-SHOTWins about 23 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$34.50 Odds+245
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Matt Shaw is Over 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On Batter - Total Bases, our numbers say this bet wins about 23 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 23%, the price says 29%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Oct 11, 4:34AM UTC
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases32.6%23.4%29.0%3.64+3.6%

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AI Analysis

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San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs: Matt Shaw Over 1.5 Batter - Total Bases (+245)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

The San Diego Padres have been on a roll, winning 8 of their last 10 games, while the Chicago Cubs have struggled a bit, winning only 2 of their last 6. Tonight, the Padres' Matt Shaw is hitting the ball much better than usual, getting hits at about double his normal rate. With the wind blowing out toward the outfield, this could be a great night for hitters. Betting on Matt Shaw to get over 1.5 total bases feels promising given his recent form and the Padres' strong lineup. This matchup is pretty close, so while Shaw has a good chance, it's not a sure thing.

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Pick History & Track Record

Quick answers:How many home runs does Matt Shaw hit?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
25 Sep 26 Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox Batter - Runs Scored 0.5 Under -294 ✓ HIT
25 Sep 26 Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox Batter - RBIs 0.5 Under -476 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds Batter - Runs Scored 0.5 Under -189 ✓ HIT
30 Sep 26 Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending
30 Sep 26 Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs — — — Pending
30 Sep 26 Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres Batter - RBIs — — — Pending

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About This Player

Matt Shaw is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matt Shaw is Over 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.6% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres on Wednesday 30 September at Petco Park, San Diego. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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