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Model picks & player props
Chicago Cubs
VS
Cincinnati Reds

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 3:59AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
Outdoor
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 5:40PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 6 Total Runs +354

The model graded 20 markets for Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $454 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 12 Jul 2026, 5:40PM at Great American Ball Park.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win31.6%
The price says22.0%
Best price+354
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Under 6 Long-shot32% chance +354
Total Runs Long-shot39% chance
Total Runs Long-shot35% chance
Spread Long-shot34% chance
Spread Long-shot26% chance
Moneyline Lean54% chance
Spread Long-shot30% chance
Spread Long-shot38% chance
Spread Long-shot20% chance
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Over 0.5 · $100 returned $182

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Under
6
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Chicago Cubs

  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Gavin Hollowell RPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Dansby Swanson SSOut
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Shota Imanaga SP

Cincinnati Reds

  • Elly De La Cruz SSDay-to-day
  • Ke'Bryan Hayes 3BOut
  • Graham Ashcraft RPOut
  • Brandon Williamson SPOut
  • Michael Toglia 1BOut
  • Spencer Steer 1BOut
  • Hunter Greene SPOut
  • Blake Dunn CFOut

Probable pitcher

Chase Burns SP
Availability updated Aug 31, 2:07AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 20 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability20 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineCincinnati RedsNo line posted
0-5L5 record
L5 RF1.4L5 RA4.2Home L50-5vs Chicago Cubs L51-4

Cincinnati Reds moneyline form: last five 0-5, 1.4 runs/gm.

Run LineCincinnati Reds run lineNo line posted
0-5L5 record
L5 RF1.4L5 RA4.2Home L50-5vs Chicago Cubs L51-4

Cincinnati Reds spread form: last five 0-5, 1.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago CubsNo line posted

Cincinnati Reds total runs form: last five 0-5, 1.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsCincinnati Reds team totalNo line posted
1.0runs we expect
L5 RF1.4L5 RA4.2Home L50-5vs Chicago Cubs L51-4

Cincinnati Reds team total runs form: last five 0-5, 1.4 runs/gm.

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds — recent results

Cincinnati Reds have won 2 of their last 5 games; Chicago Cubs have won 2 of their last 5.

Cincinnati Reds — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L5–17CHCAway
W10–8CHCAway
L1–3SFAway
W10–9SFAway
L0–5SFAway
Chicago Cubs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W17–5CINHome
L8–10CINHome
L4–5ARIAway
L0–2ARIAway
W7–0ARIAway

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Cincinnati Reds are scoring 4.0 runs per game (3-2) while Chicago Cubs are at 4.0 (4-1); Cincinnati Reds pitchers are allowing 2.2 earned runs per game versus 1.0 for Chicago Cubs.

4.0
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
4.0
Chicago Cubs runs/G
Last 5 gamesCincinnati RedsChicago Cubs
Runs / game4.04.0
Hits / game4.84.6
Home runs / game1.00.6
Walks drawn / game2.01.2
Batter K / game4.42.0
Earned runs allowed / game2.21.0
Pitching K / game4.22.0
Walks allowed / game2.61.8
L5 record3-24-1

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Cincinnati Reds won 3, Chicago Cubs won 7.

DateCincinnati RedsChicago CubsWinner
Aug 29517Chicago Cubs
Aug 28108Cincinnati Reds
Jul 1248Chicago Cubs
Jul 1135Chicago Cubs
Jul 1040Cincinnati Reds
May 738Chicago Cubs
May 667Chicago Cubs
May 523Chicago Cubs
May 445Chicago Cubs
Mar 2186Cincinnati Reds

Who’s out or in doubt

20 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Cincinnati Reds
PlayerStatus
Elly De La Cruz SSDAY-TO-DAY
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3BOUT
Graham Ashcraft RPOUT
Brandon Williamson SPOUT
Michael Toglia 1BOUT
Spencer Steer 1BOUT
Hunter Greene SPOUT
Blake Dunn CFOUT
Chicago Cubs
PlayerStatus
Edward Cabrera SPOUT
Ben Brown RPOUT
Justin Steele SPOUT
Phil Maton RPOUT
Gavin Hollowell RPOUT
Riley Martin RPOUT
Hunter Harvey RPOUT
Dansby Swanson SSOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Noelvi Marte. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs stats and odds.

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs : Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-233)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Cubs roll into Cincinnati, they bring with them a potent offense that's been lighting up the scoreboard lately. Over their last ten games, they've averaged over five runs per contest, showcasing a lineup that thrives on getting the big hits in crucial moments. Meanwhile, the Reds have struggled to find consistency, especially against right-handers, which is a concern with Chicago’s Marcus Stroman taking the mound. Stroman has been on fire, boasting a sub-3.00 ERA and an impressive WHIP that signals he can stifle the Reds’ attack. Considering the Cubs’ recent form and their track record against Cincinnati, this matchup feels ripe for a Cubs victory by at least two runs. With the Reds’ tendency to falter against top-tier pitching, laying the 1.5 runs on the Cubs is a smart play. Expect Chicago to assert themselves and cover the run line, capitalizing on their offensive momentum and solid pitching.

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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
12 Jul 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 12.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Cubs vs Reds, or as Reds vs Cubs. The most recent game between them was Sunday 12 July 2026 at Great American Ball Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 54 meetings on record
Cincinnati Reds 29–23 across the last 54 meetings · 2 draws · these games average 10.5 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
29 Aug 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs17–5Chicago Cubs
28 Aug 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs8–10Cincinnati Reds
12 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds4–8Chicago Cubs
11 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds3–5Chicago Cubs
10 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds4–0Cincinnati Reds
7 May 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs8–3Chicago Cubs
6 May 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs7–6Chicago Cubs
5 May 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs3–2Chicago Cubs
4 May 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs5–4Chicago Cubs
21 Mar 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs6–8Cincinnati Reds

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 54 meetings on file.

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