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Chicago Cubs
VS
Cincinnati Reds

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 21, 7:09AM UTC

Our model graded 70 markets for Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds and backs Cincinnati Reds hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $224.

MLB
Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
Outdoor
Sun 20 Sep 2026, 5:40PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Cincinnati Reds Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings +124

The model graded 70 markets for Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $224 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 20 Sep 2026, 5:40PM at Great American Ball Park.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win43.1%
The price says42.8%
Best price+124
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Cincinnati Reds Lean43% chance +124
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot14% chance Members
Spread Members only Long-shot14% chance Members
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot26% chance Members
Total Runs Members only Long-shot37% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Members only Lean50% chance Members
Batter - Stolen Bases × 1 prop Long-shotup to 25% Members
Pitcher - Outs × 2 props Highup to 64% Members
Batter - Walks × 6 props Leanup to 57% Members
Batter - RBIs × 4 props Highup to 79% Members
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 2 props Leanup to 55% Members
Batter - Singles × 2 props Highup to 69% Members
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Leanup to 49% Members
Batter - Runs Scored × 4 props Highup to 76% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every MLB game on today's board →

Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds last met on Sun 20 Sep 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 164 of 342 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 20
Bryce Miller Over 2.5
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CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $120
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings
Cincinnati Reds
+124
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 57,618+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Cincinnati RedsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Chicago Cubs

  • Alex Bregman 3BDay-to-day
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Trent Thornton RPOut
  • Gavin Hollowell RPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut

Probable pitcher

David Peterson SP

Cincinnati Reds

  • Chase Burns SPOut
  • Spencer Steer 1BOut
  • Julian Garcia RPOut
  • Blake Dunn CFOut
  • Michael Toglia 1BOut
  • Hunter Greene SPOut

Probable pitcher

Rhett Lowder SP
Availability updated Sep 20, 7:32PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

The plate umpire

Behind the plate: D.J. Reyburn. Games he has called average 9.2 runs across 22 games on record — the league average this season is 9.2. Full umpire record →

The preview

Written 21 Sep

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction and Picks, September 21, 2026

On September 21, 2026 our model has run Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Ian Happ (CHC) Under 0.5 Walks (-112), which we rate LEAN confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

Nico Hoerner (CHC) Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+111)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Cincinnati Reds play Chicago Cubs in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Nico Hoerner (CHC) Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+111). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at +111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Ian Happ (CHC) Under 0.5 Walks (-112)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Cincinnati Reds play Chicago Cubs in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Ian Happ (CHC) Under 0.5 Walks (-112). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.93 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Nico Hoerner (CHC) Under 0.5 Singles (+142)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Cincinnati Reds play Chicago Cubs in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Nico Hoerner (CHC) Under 0.5 Singles (+142). That is a Singles bet. It was priced at +142 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $24.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs: Over 9.5 Total Runs (-109)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Cincinnati Reds play Chicago Cubs in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs: Over 9.5 Total Runs (-109). That is a totals bet. It was priced at -109 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.17 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs: Cincinnati Reds -0.5 (+160)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Cincinnati Reds play Chicago Cubs in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs: Cincinnati Reds -0.5 (+160). That is a alternate spreads 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at +160 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $26 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs: Over 11 Total Runs (+150)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Cincinnati Reds play Chicago Cubs in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs: Over 11 Total Runs (+150). That is a alternate totals bet. It was priced at +150 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $25 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Same game parlay

Written 21 Sep

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction and Same Game Parlay picks, September 21, 2026

On September 21, 2026 our 3-leg same game parlay for Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds is built from the bets our model already likes on their own. We rate the whole slip HIGH confidence. Every leg below is a bet our model already rates on its own, so you can see exactly what you are backing and what the book is paying for it.

The legs, one at a time

Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) Under 0.5 Walks (-526)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Cincinnati Reds play Chicago Cubs in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) Under 0.5 Walks (-526). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -526 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) Under 0.5 Doubles (-1000)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Cincinnati Reds play Chicago Cubs in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) Under 0.5 Doubles (-1000). That is a Doubles bet. It was priced at -1000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Will Banfield Under 0.5 Doubles (-1429)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Cincinnati Reds play Chicago Cubs in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Will Banfield Under 0.5 Doubles (-1429). That is a Doubles bet. It was priced at -1429 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $10.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every leg above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Pete Crow-Armstrong Batter - Stolen Bases
Rhett Lowder Pitcher - Outs
Pete Crow-Armstrong Batter - Walks
Alex Bregman HOU Batter - Walks
Dane Myers MIA Batter - RBIs

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineCincinnati RedsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA4.4Home L52-3vs Chicago Cubs L53-2

Cincinnati Reds moneyline form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Run LineCincinnati Reds run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA4.4Home L52-3vs Chicago Cubs L53-2

Cincinnati Reds spread form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago CubsNo line posted

Cincinnati Reds total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsCincinnati Reds team totalNo line posted
3.8runs we expect
L5 RF3.0L5 RA4.4Home L52-3vs Chicago Cubs L53-2

Cincinnati Reds team total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds — recent results

Cincinnati Reds have won 2 of their last 5 games; Chicago Cubs have won 3 of their last 5.

Cincinnati Reds — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–9CHCHome
L2–5CHCHome
W6–4CHCHome
L2–8LADHome
W6–2LADHome
Chicago Cubs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W9–1CINAway
W5–2CINAway
L4–6CINAway
W8–4ATLHome
L3–6ATLHome

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Cincinnati Reds are scoring 2.6 runs per game (2-3) while Chicago Cubs are at 5.0 (3-2); Cincinnati Reds pitchers are allowing 4.2 earned runs per game versus 3.8 for Chicago Cubs.

2.6
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
5.0
Chicago Cubs runs/G
Last 5 gamesCincinnati RedsChicago Cubs
Runs / game2.65.0
Hits / game7.07.4
Home runs / game1.01.4
Walks drawn / game1.84.2
Batter K / game8.65.2
Earned runs allowed / game4.23.8
Pitching K / game6.88.4
Walks allowed / game5.63.8
L5 record2-33-2

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Cincinnati Reds won 4, Chicago Cubs won 6.

DateCincinnati RedsChicago CubsWinner
Sep 2019Chicago Cubs
Sep 1925Chicago Cubs
Sep 1864Cincinnati Reds
Aug 3075Cincinnati Reds
Aug 29517Chicago Cubs
Aug 28108Cincinnati Reds
Jul 1248Chicago Cubs
Jul 1135Chicago Cubs
Jul 1040Cincinnati Reds
May 738Chicago Cubs

Who’s out or in doubt

18 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Cincinnati Reds
PlayerStatus
Chase Burns SPOUT
Spencer Steer 1BOUT
Julian Garcia RPOUT
Blake Dunn CFOUT
Michael Toglia 1BOUT
Hunter Greene SPOUT
Chicago Cubs
PlayerStatus
Alex Bregman 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Shelby Miller RPOUT
Trent Thornton RPOUT
Gavin Hollowell RPOUT
Ben Brown RPOUT
Justin Steele SPOUT
Phil Maton RPOUT
Riley Martin RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

The umpire factor

Home-plate umpire: D.J. Reyburn. His games average 8.6 total runs against a league average of 8.9.

8.6
Runs in his games
8.9
League average

D.J. Reyburn called this game behind the plate. Across 179 games his days at the park bring a little less scoring than most.

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds — model preview

Our Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds prediction for September 21, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 21, 2026 our model has run Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Ian Happ (CHC) Under 0.5 Walks (-112), which we rate LEAN confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
19 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 3.5 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 8 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 3.5 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 5.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Cubs vs Reds, or as Reds vs Cubs. The most recent game between them was Sunday 20 September 2026 at Great American Ball Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 58 meetings on record
Cincinnati Reds 31–25 across the last 58 meetings · 2 draws · these games average 10.5 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
20 Sep 2026Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds1–9Chicago Cubs
19 Sep 2026Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds2–5Chicago Cubs
18 Sep 2026Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds6–4Cincinnati Reds
30 Aug 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs5–7Cincinnati Reds
29 Aug 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs17–5Chicago Cubs
28 Aug 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs8–10Cincinnati Reds
12 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds4–8Chicago Cubs
11 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds3–5Chicago Cubs
10 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds4–0Cincinnati Reds
7 May 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs8–3Chicago Cubs

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 58 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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