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Model picks & player props
Chicago Cubs
VS
Cincinnati Reds

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
Outdoor
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 5:40PM
20
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Cincinnati Reds -2 (Spread)
For Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds (MLB), model win probability 34.0%, fair odds 2.94, book price +275, model edge +7.4%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 12 Jul 2026, 5:40PM at Great American Ball Park.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Cincinnati Reds
-2
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Cincinnati RedsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Chicago Cubs

  • Trent Thornton RPDay-to-day
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Ethan Roberts RPOut
  • Matt Shaw RFOut
  • Daniel Palencia RPOut
  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Hoby Milner RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Jameson Taillon SP

Cincinnati Reds

  • Blake Dunn CFOut
  • Spencer Steer 1BDay-to-day
  • Matt McLain 2BOut
  • Tony Santillan RPOut
  • Graham Ashcraft RPOut
  • Nick Lodolo SPOut
  • Brandon Williamson SPOut

Probable pitcher

Andrew Abbott SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 10:51AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 22 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability22 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineCincinnati RedsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.2Home L53-2vs Chicago Cubs L52-3Win rec4-9

Cincinnati Reds moneyline form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

Run LineCincinnati Reds run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.2Home L53-2vs Chicago Cubs L52-3ATS4-10

Cincinnati Reds spread form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago CubsNo line posted

Cincinnati Reds total runs form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsCincinnati Reds team totalNo line posted
3.3implied team total
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.2Home L53-2vs Chicago Cubs L52-3

Cincinnati Reds team total runs form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Cincinnati Reds are scoring 4.0 runs per game (3-2) while Chicago Cubs are at 4.0 (4-1); Cincinnati Reds pitchers are allowing 2.2 earned runs per game versus 1.0 for Chicago Cubs.

4.0
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
4.0
Chicago Cubs runs/G
Last 5 gamesCincinnati RedsChicago Cubs
Runs / game4.04.0
Hits / game4.84.6
Home runs / game1.00.6
Walks drawn / game2.01.2
Batter K / game4.42.0
Earned runs allowed / game2.21.0
Pitching K / game4.22.0
Walks allowed / game2.61.8
L5 record3-24-1

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds — model preview

<p>Latest MLB betting preview: Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Noelvi Marte. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs stats and odds.</p>

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs : Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-233)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Cubs roll into Cincinnati, they bring with them a potent offense that's been lighting up the scoreboard lately. Over their last ten games, they've averaged over five runs per contest, showcasing a lineup that thrives on getting the big hits in crucial moments. Meanwhile, the Reds have struggled to find consistency, especially against right-handers, which is a concern with Chicago’s Marcus Stroman taking the mound. Stroman has been on fire, boasting a sub-3.00 ERA and an impressive WHIP that signals he can stifle the Reds’ attack. Considering the Cubs’ recent form and their track record against Cincinnati, this matchup feels ripe for a Cubs victory by at least two runs. With the Reds’ tendency to falter against top-tier pitching, laying the 1.5 runs on the Cubs is a smart play. Expect Chicago to assert themselves and cover the run line, capitalizing on their offensive momentum and solid pitching.

Noelvi Marte (CIN) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-189)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Reds face off against the Cubs on July 10, keep an eye on Noelvi Marte's total bases. While Marte has shown flashes of talent, recent trends point to a potential struggle at the plate. The Cubs' pitching staff has found its groove, especially with their starters limiting opposing hitters to a measly .220 average over the last month. Marte, for his part, has faced a stiff challenge from right-handed pitchers, hitting just .215 against them this season. When you combine that with the fact that he’s been mired in a slump, going 3-for-23 in his last six games, it’s hard to envision him breaking out for more than one total base against a resilient Cubs rotation. With the line set at 1.5 and the odds favoring the under, the smart play here is to lean under—Marte's recent performances suggest he’ll have a tough time finding the gaps tonight.

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs : Chicago Cubs +2.5 (-370)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

When the Chicago Cubs roll into Cincinnati on July 10, they're looking to build on an impressive streak. With a potent lineup, the Cubs have been racking up runs, averaging over five per game in their last ten. The Reds, meanwhile, have struggled to keep opponents off the board, allowing more than five runs a contest during the same stretch. Cubs' ace shows no signs of slowing down; he's been stellar on the mound, boasting a strikeout rate that leaves hitters guessing. When facing a Reds lineup that often swings at the first pitch, expect the Cubs' pitcher to capitalize on any early mistakes. Moreover, the Cubs have a solid record against the Reds, and with their offense clicking, a win by at least three runs seems not just feasible, but likely. Betting on the Cubs to cover the alternate run line of 2.5 feels like a savvy play in this matchup.

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs : Chicago Cubs +2 (-323)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Cubs roll into Cincinnati, they're riding a wave of momentum that’s hard to overlook. With a recent surge in offensive production, they’ve averaged over six runs per game in their last ten contests. The Reds, meanwhile, have struggled on the mound, with their starters allowing a hefty 5.4 runs per game this season. The Cubs’ lineup, brimming with depth and power, has consistently capitalized on pitching mistakes, leading to a significant advantage in run differential. Plus, their recent performance against left-handed pitchers has been stellar, which could be pivotal if they face a southpaw from Cincinnati. The Cubs have shown resilience and the ability to win by more than two runs against teams like the Reds, who are faltering under pressure. With Chicago's robust offense and a shaky Reds pitching staff, taking the Cubs on the alternate run line feels like a savvy play in this matchup.

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs : Chicago Cubs +3.5 (-588)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Cubs roll into Cincinnati, they've turned into an undeniable force, and their recent form is a testament to that. With a formidable lineup that has consistently put runs on the board, they’ve averaged over five runs in their last ten games. Meanwhile, the Reds' pitching staff has struggled to contain the opposition, particularly against right-handers, which plays right into the Cubs’ strengths. The Cubs' ace on the mound has been electric, boasting a WHIP under 1.00 in his last few starts. This, combined with their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities, sets the stage for a commanding performance. With the Reds swimming upstream against a potent Chicago offense and a reliable pitcher, taking the Cubs on the alternate run line at -3.5 looks enticing. Given their current trajectory and the Reds' recent woes, this matchup feels ripe for a Chicago blowout.

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs : Chicago Cubs +3 (-526)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Cubs head to Cincinnati, the stage is set for a compelling matchup. Chicago has been on a tear lately, showcasing an offense that’s firing on all cylinders. They’ve averaged over five runs per game in their last 10 outings—highlighting their ability to capitalize on pitching weaknesses. On the mound, the Cubs’ starter has been particularly dominant, with a strikeout rate that keeps hitters guessing. This is crucial against a Reds lineup that has struggled against power pitching, especially in key moments. While Cincinnati can be pesky at home, their recent inconsistency raises concern. The Cubs have a solid track record against divisional rivals, and with their current form, they’re primed to cover the alternate run line comfortably. With an implied probability suggesting a strong likelihood of success, backing Chicago to win by three runs feels like a smart move in this divisional clash.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
4
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
12 Jul 26 Moneyline Cincinnati Reds ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Spread Cincinnati Reds -2 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Spread Cincinnati Reds 1 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Spread Cincinnati Reds 1.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 12 July 2026 at Great American Ball Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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