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Model picks & player props
Chicago Cubs
VS
Cincinnati Reds

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 8:10PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
Outdoor
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 5:40PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Under 6 (Total Runs)
The model graded 20 markets for Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $454 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 31.6%, fair odds 3.16, book price +354, model edge +9.6%. Tip-off Sun 12 Jul 2026, 5:40PM at Great American Ball Park.
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Over 0.5 · $100 returned $182

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Runs
Under
7
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Chicago Cubs

  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Matt Shaw RFOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Daniel Palencia RPOut
  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Gavin Hollowell RPOut
  • Hoby Milner RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut

Cincinnati Reds

  • Spencer Steer 1BOut
  • Brandon Williamson SPOut
  • Hunter Greene SPOut
  • Blake Dunn CFOut
  • Nick Lodolo SPOut
  • Tony Santillan RPOut
  • Graham Ashcraft RPOut
Availability updated Aug 10, 11:23AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 21 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability21 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineCincinnati RedsNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA1.6Home L52-3vs Chicago Cubs L52-3

Cincinnati Reds moneyline form: last five 1-4, 1.8 runs/gm.

Run LineCincinnati Reds run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA1.6Home L52-3vs Chicago Cubs L52-3

Cincinnati Reds spread form: last five 1-4, 1.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago CubsNo line posted

Cincinnati Reds total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsCincinnati Reds team totalNo line posted
1.5runs we expect
L5 RF1.8L5 RA1.6Home L52-3vs Chicago Cubs L52-3

Cincinnati Reds team total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.8 runs/gm.

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds — recent results

Cincinnati Reds have won 2 of their last 5 games; Chicago Cubs have won 4 of their last 5.

Cincinnati Reds — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–7WSHAway
L2–8WSHAway
L3–5WSHAway
W6–5ATHHome
W3–2ATHHome
Chicago Cubs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W10–2KCAway
W6–4KCAway
L3–6KCAway
W3–2TORHome
W5–1LADHome

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Cincinnati Reds are scoring 4.0 runs per game (3-2) while Chicago Cubs are at 4.0 (4-1); Cincinnati Reds pitchers are allowing 2.2 earned runs per game versus 1.0 for Chicago Cubs.

4.0
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
4.0
Chicago Cubs runs/G
Last 5 gamesCincinnati RedsChicago Cubs
Runs / game4.04.0
Hits / game4.84.6
Home runs / game1.00.6
Walks drawn / game2.01.2
Batter K / game4.42.0
Earned runs allowed / game2.21.0
Pitching K / game4.22.0
Walks allowed / game2.61.8
L5 record3-24-1

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Cincinnati Reds won 1, Chicago Cubs won 2.

DateCincinnati RedsChicago CubsWinner
Jul 1248Chicago Cubs
Jul 1135Chicago Cubs
Jul 1040Cincinnati Reds

Who’s out or in doubt

21 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Cincinnati Reds
PlayerStatus
Spencer Steer 1BOUT
Brandon Williamson SPOUT
Hunter Greene SPOUT
Blake Dunn CFOUT
Nick Lodolo SPOUT
Tony Santillan RPOUT
Graham Ashcraft RPOUT
Chicago Cubs
PlayerStatus
Shelby Miller RPOUT
Riley Martin RPOUT
Phil Maton RPOUT
Matt Shaw RFOUT
Hunter Harvey RPOUT
Daniel Palencia RPOUT
Edward Cabrera SPOUT
Ben Brown RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Noelvi Marte. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs stats and odds.

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs : Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-233)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Cubs roll into Cincinnati, they bring with them a potent offense that's been lighting up the scoreboard lately. Over their last ten games, they've averaged over five runs per contest, showcasing a lineup that thrives on getting the big hits in crucial moments. Meanwhile, the Reds have struggled to find consistency, especially against right-handers, which is a concern with Chicago’s Marcus Stroman taking the mound. Stroman has been on fire, boasting a sub-3.00 ERA and an impressive WHIP that signals he can stifle the Reds’ attack. Considering the Cubs’ recent form and their track record against Cincinnati, this matchup feels ripe for a Cubs victory by at least two runs. With the Reds’ tendency to falter against top-tier pitching, laying the 1.5 runs on the Cubs is a smart play. Expect Chicago to assert themselves and cover the run line, capitalizing on their offensive momentum and solid pitching.

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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
4
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
12 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 7 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Moneyline Cincinnati Reds ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Spread Cincinnati Reds -2 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 6 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Cubs vs Reds, or as Reds vs Cubs. The most recent game between them was Sunday 12 July 2026 at Great American Ball Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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